With key starters sidelined for both Eastern Conference foes, Bryan Bash analyzes why the current point spread offers a massive edge for the underdog in this Tuesday night clash at the Kaseya Center.
The Setup: Raptors at Heat
Miami’s laying 5.5 at home against Toronto on Tuesday night, and on the surface, this number makes sense. The Heat are 10-4 at the Kaseya Center, the Raptors are playing their second road game in three days, and Miami’s home-court advantage has been legitimate this season. But here’s the thing — Tyler Herro isn’t playing. Neither is RJ Barrett for Toronto. And when you dig into what those absences actually mean for offensive efficiency and scoring distribution, this spread starts to feel stretched.
Let me walk you through why this line exists and why I think it’s inflated by at least two possessions. Miami’s been a different team at home, but their offensive engine runs through Herro’s 23.2 points per game and his ability to create advantages in the pick-and-roll. Without him, Norman Powell becomes the primary initiator, and while Powell’s averaging an impressive 24.0 points per game this season, he’s more of a scorer than a playmaker. That shift matters when you’re trying to generate efficient offense over 96 possessions against a Toronto team that’s playing with house money on the road.
The Raptors are 9-6 away from home — better on the road than at home — and they’re getting 5.5 points with Brandon Ingram and Scottie Barnes leading the way. Toronto’s missing Barrett’s 19.4 points per game and Jakob Poeltl’s interior presence, but this matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests. I’m taking Toronto plus the points, and I’ll explain exactly why the math doesn’t support a Miami blowout.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 23, 2025, 7:30 ET
Location: Kaseya Center
Current Spread: Miami Heat -5.5 (-105) | Toronto Raptors +5.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Miami Heat -210 | Toronto Raptors +175
Total: Over/Under 228.5
Why This Line Exists
The market landed on Miami -5.5 because of three factors: home-court advantage, overall record positioning, and the assumption that Miami’s offensive firepower outweighs Toronto’s depth. The Heat are 10-4 at home versus 5-10 on the road — that’s a massive split that typically justifies three to four points of line value right there. Add in Toronto’s injury situation with Barrett out and Poeltl sidelined, and you can see why oddsmakers feel comfortable hanging this number.
But once you dig into the matchup data, the picture changes. Miami’s 15-14 overall record isn’t significantly better than Toronto’s 17-13 mark. The Raptors are actually the higher seed in the Eastern Conference — fifth versus eighth — and they’ve been the better road team. Miami’s home dominance is real, but it’s been built on games where Herro was available to run the offense and create efficient looks for Bam Adebayo and the supporting cast.
Without Herro, Miami’s offensive structure shifts dramatically. Powell will handle primary creation duties, but he’s averaging just 2.5 assists per game compared to Herro’s playmaking. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts. When your secondary creator becomes your primary initiator, efficiency drops. Miami will still score, but the ease of those buckets changes. And when you’re trying to cover 5.5 points at home, you need efficient offense over the full 48 minutes.
Toronto’s also dealing with injuries, but Ingram and Barnes give them two players who can create their own shot and initiate offense in halfcourt sets. That flexibility matters when you’re playing as an underdog trying to keep the game within a possession or two.
Toronto Raptors Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Raptors are 9-6 on the road, which tells you everything about their competitive nature away from home. Brandon Ingram’s averaging 22.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 3.9 assists — he’s the primary scoring option and the guy who can get buckets in isolation when the offense stalls. Scottie Barnes adds 19.1 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 5.1 assists, giving Toronto a versatile forward who can handle, pass, and defend multiple positions.
Without Barrett and Poeltl, Toronto loses scoring punch and interior defense, but they gain offensive possessions for Ingram and Barnes. That’s not necessarily a bad thing when you’re catching 5.5 points. The question isn’t whether Toronto can win outright — it’s whether they can stay within two possessions, and their road record suggests they’re capable of doing exactly that.
Toronto’s recent loss to Brooklyn — a 96-81 defeat — looks ugly on paper, but context matters. The Nets held them to 81 points through strong interior defense and transition opportunities. Miami doesn’t have the same defensive personnel without their full rotation healthy. The main risk here is Toronto’s inability to protect the rim without Poeltl, but Miami’s not a team that dominates in the paint offensively. This matchup plays more to the perimeter, where Toronto has the wings to compete.
Miami Heat Breakdown: The Other Side
Miami’s 10-4 at home because they control pace and execute in halfcourt sets when Herro orchestrates the offense. Without him, they’re leaning on Powell’s 24.0 points per game and Adebayo’s 18.3 points and 9.4 rebounds. That’s still a solid foundation, but it’s not the same offensive ceiling. Powell’s an elite scorer, but he’s not creating the same volume of open looks for teammates that Herro does.
Adebayo will be the key. He’s averaging 9.4 rebounds and 2.4 assists, and he’s the most versatile player on the floor for Miami. If he can dominate the paint against Toronto’s smaller frontcourt without Poeltl, Miami has a path to covering. But Adebayo’s not a 25-point-per-game scorer — he’s a facilitator who thrives when the offense flows around him. Without Herro to create that flow, Miami’s offense becomes more predictable.
The Heat are also missing Nikola Jovic, who’s week-to-week with an elbow injury, and Pelle Larsson is out with an ankle sprain. That’s three rotation players unavailable, and while Miami’s depth has been solid at home, asking them to cover 5.5 without their second-leading scorer feels like a stretch. The recent loss to New York — a 132-125 defeat where they couldn’t slow down Jalen Brunson — shows Miami’s defensive limitations when opponents have multiple creators.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided on the perimeter and in transition. Miami wants to control pace and force Toronto into halfcourt execution where Adebayo can anchor the defense. Toronto wants to push tempo, get Ingram and Barnes in space, and exploit Miami’s thinner rotation without Herro and Jovic.
I keep coming back to this efficiency gap. Miami’s home offense has been strong this season, but remove Herro’s 23.2 points and his playmaking, and you’re asking Powell to carry a significantly heavier load. Powell’s capable, but when you do that math over 96 possessions, Miami’s offensive efficiency drops by several points per 100 possessions. That’s the difference between covering 5.5 and winning by two or three.
Toronto’s got the defensive versatility to make Powell work for his buckets. Barnes can switch onto multiple positions, and Ingram’s length bothers shooters on the perimeter. Miami will still score — they’re too talented not to — but the ease of those buckets changes without Herro running pick-and-roll and creating advantages.
The total is set at 228.5, which suggests oddsmakers expect a relatively high-scoring game. But with both teams dealing with key injuries and Toronto likely trying to slow the pace to keep this close, I see a game that stays in the 220-225 range. That supports Toronto’s ability to hang around and keep this within a possession or two down the stretch.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Toronto Raptors +5.5 (-115) | 2 Units
I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there. Miami’s 10-4 at the Kaseya Center, but they’re 10-4 with Tyler Herro available for most of those games. Without him, their offensive ceiling drops significantly, and asking Norman Powell to carry the scoring load while also creating for others is a tall order against a Toronto team that’s 9-6 on the road.
Toronto’s got two legitimate creators in Ingram and Barnes, and they’re getting 5.5 points in a game where Miami’s missing their second-best player. The Raptors don’t need to win outright — they just need to stay within two possessions. Their road record and offensive versatility suggest they’re more than capable of doing exactly that.
The main risk here is Bam Adebayo dominating the paint without Poeltl to protect the rim. If Adebayo goes for 25 and 12 and controls the glass, Miami can pull away late. But I’m betting on Toronto’s perimeter defense to make Miami work for every bucket and on Ingram and Barnes to keep this competitive into the fourth quarter. Give me the Raptors plus the points.
