Toronto enters the Moda Center as a 3.5-point road favorite, and tonight’s prediction hinges on an efficiency clash. While the Raptors rank top-5 in road wins, they face a Trail Blazers squad fueled by Deni Avdija’s All-Star-caliber 26.2 PPG and a surging #9-ranked scoring offense.
The Setup: Raptors at Trail Blazers
Toronto laying 3.5 points in Portland on a Friday night. The Raptors are 27-19 and sitting fourth in the East, while the Blazers are 23-22 and clinging to ninth in the West. Portland’s riding a four-game winning streak after dismantling Miami 127-110 behind Shaedon Sharpe’s 27 points. Toronto just handled Sacramento 122-109 with Scottie Barnes dropping 23, including 14 in the third quarter alone. The line respects Portland’s home floor and recent momentum, but Toronto’s 14-9 road record suggests they’re comfortable playing away from home. The spread tells you the market sees two teams trending in opposite directions, but the Raptors’ depth and efficiency make this number feel a possession too generous for a Blazers squad that’s been feasting on weaker competition.
Game Info & Betting Lines
When: Friday, January 23, 2026, 10:00 ET
Where: Moda Center at the Rose Quarter
Watch: Home: KUNP 16, BlazerVision | Away: TSN, NBA League Pass
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Raptors -3.5 (-110) | Trail Blazers +3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Raptors -161 | Trail Blazers +131
- Total: Over 225.0 (-110) | Under 225.0 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
The market’s giving Portland 3.5 points at home because they’ve won four straight and their top three scorers are all averaging north of 19 points per game. Deni Avdija is putting up 26.2 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 6.9 assists this season—career-best numbers that have transformed Portland’s offensive identity. Sharpe’s adding 21.8 points and Jerami Grant’s chipping in 19.9. That’s a legitimate three-headed scoring attack, and at home where they’re 13-10, the Blazers have protected their floor reasonably well.
But Toronto’s road profile is what justifies them being favored here. The Raptors are 14-9 away from home, which means they’re winning 60.9% of their road games. That’s not a team that needs home cooking to execute. Brandon Ingram leads them at 21.8 points per game, Barnes is at 19.8 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 5.6 assists, and RJ Barrett—who’s questionable but targeting this game for a return—adds another 19.6 points when healthy. The difference is Toronto’s built for multiple ways to win. Portland’s hot streak has come against teams they should beat, and now they’re facing a deeper, more disciplined squad that doesn’t rely on one guy creating everything.
Raptors Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Toronto’s strength is balance. Three guys averaging between 19.6 and 21.8 points means there’s no single defender who can shut down their offense. Barnes is the engine—his 5.6 assists per game keep the ball moving, and his 8.2 rebounds give them second-chance opportunities. He just scored 14 of his 23 points in the third quarter against Sacramento, which shows he can take over when Toronto needs a run. Ingram’s the closer, Barrett’s the slashing scorer, and when all three are rolling, the Raptors can hang 120-plus on anyone.
The concern is the injury report. Jakob Poeltl remains out with a lower back strain and isn’t traveling with the team, which removes their primary rim protector and interior presence. Chucky Hepburn is also out—he’s been averaging 12.8 points and 9.2 assists across 11 appearances, plus 2.4 steals defensively. That’s a real loss in terms of backcourt depth. Barrett being questionable adds uncertainty, though his potential return would be a boost. If Barrett plays, Toronto’s three-headed scoring attack is intact. If he doesn’t, they’re leaning more heavily on Barnes and Ingram to carry the offensive load, which they’ve proven capable of doing.
Trail Blazers Breakdown: The Other Side
Portland’s offense runs through Avdija now, and his 26.2 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 6.9 assists make him one of the league’s most versatile playmakers. He’s facilitating, scoring, and rebounding at an All-Star level. Sharpe’s explosive—27 points with seven boards and four steals against Miami shows his two-way impact. Grant’s the steady veteran at 19.9 points, giving them a third option who can create his own shot. The Blazers are scoring enough to keep pace with anyone, especially at home where they’ve been solid at 13-10.
The problem is depth and defensive consistency. Matisse Thybulle is out with thumb surgery and knee tendinitis, which removes their best perimeter defender. Scoot Henderson hasn’t played all season due to a torn hamstring suffered in September, and Blake Wesley’s out with a fifth metatarsal fracture. Those are three rotation pieces missing, and it shows when the game gets into the second unit. Portland’s four-game winning streak is real, but look at the competition—they’re beating teams they should beat. Toronto’s a different level of opponent, and the Blazers don’t have the defensive personnel to slow down three 20-point scorers without getting into foul trouble or relying on help defense that leaves shooters open.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This comes down to whether Portland’s offensive firepower can outscore Toronto’s depth and versatility. The Raptors have three guys who can get you 20-plus on any given night, and Barnes’ playmaking keeps the offense from stagnating. Portland counters with Avdija’s all-around game and Sharpe’s scoring bursts, but they’re thinner when it comes to secondary options. If Barrett plays, Toronto’s got four legitimate scoring threats on the floor. Portland’s got three, and after that, it’s a significant drop-off.
Defensively, the Raptors have the advantage despite missing Poeltl. Portland’s without Thybulle, who would’ve been tasked with slowing down Ingram or Barnes. That means the Blazers are relying on Grant and Avdija to defend multiple positions, which works until Toronto starts hunting mismatches in pick-and-roll. Barnes’ ability to facilitate out of the short roll creates problems Portland doesn’t have a clean answer for. The Blazers will score—they’re averaging enough between their top three to push 115-plus—but can they get stops when Toronto’s running offense through multiple actions?
The total at 225 feels right given both teams’ offensive capabilities, but the spread is where the value sits. Toronto’s road record says they don’t need home court to execute their game plan. Portland’s home record is solid at 13-10, but that’s not dominant enough to justify getting 3.5 points against a team that’s 14-9 on the road and deeper across the board. If Barrett plays, this line should be closer to 5. Even if he doesn’t, Toronto’s got enough firepower and defensive versatility to win this game by a possession or two.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m laying the points with Toronto. The Raptors are the better team with more ways to win, and their road profile tells you they’re not intimidated by hostile environments. Portland’s hot streak is legitimate, but they’re about to face a significant step up in competition. Avdija and Sharpe will get theirs, but Toronto’s depth wears teams down over 48 minutes. Barnes, Ingram, and potentially Barrett give them three guys who can control stretches of the game, and Portland doesn’t have the defensive personnel to match up across the board.
The risk is Barrett’s status and the late tip time on the second night of a back-to-back situation for Toronto if they played Thursday—but the recap shows they played Wednesday in Sacramento, so they’ve got rest. Portland’s coming off Thursday’s win over Miami, so if anything, the Blazers are on shorter rest. That tilts the fatigue factor toward Toronto. Even if Barrett sits, the Raptors have enough to cover 3.5 against a Blazers team that’s been beating inferior opponents during this streak.
BASH’S BEST BET: Raptors -3.5 for 2 units.
Toronto wins this game by 5-7 points. Take the road favorite and cash the ticket.
