Golden State’s season takes a sudden turn following Jimmy Butler’s season-ending ACL tear during Monday’s win over Miami. Now facing a 24-hour turnaround against a resilient Toronto squad, we evaluate if the Warriors’ home dominance can provide a winning ATS pick despite the heavy legs and missing stars.
The Setup: Raptors at Warriors
Golden State is laying 3.5 points at home against Toronto on Tuesday night, and that number feels light given the Warriors’ 17-6 home record versus the Raptors’ 12-9 road mark. But here’s the catch: Jimmy Butler injured his right knee in Monday’s win over Miami after scoring 17 points, and the Warriors are playing the second leg of a back-to-back. Meanwhile, Toronto is missing RJ Barrett for a sixth straight game with an ankle sprain, and Jakob Poeltl remains out with a back injury. Both teams sit at 25-19, but the contexts couldn’t be more different. The Warriors lean heavily on their Chase Center advantage, while the Raptors have been surprisingly competent on the road. This line exists in the space between Golden State’s home dominance and the uncertainty around Butler’s availability. The total sits at 226.0, and that’s where the real value might live once you account for pace and personnel.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Date: Tuesday, January 20, 2026
Time: 10:00 ET
Venue: Chase Center
TV: NBC Sports BA, Sportsnet, NBA League Pass
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Golden State Warriors -3.5 (-110)
- Spread: Toronto Raptors +3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Warriors -156 | Raptors +128
- Total: 226.0 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market landed at Warriors -3.5 because Golden State’s home-court advantage has been legitimate all season. That 17-6 home record translates to real equity, especially when you consider they’re 8-13 on the road. The split tells you everything about how this team functions in front of their crowd at Chase Center. Toronto’s 12-9 road record keeps them competitive in this spot, but they’re walking into a venue where the Warriors have covered consistently.
The Butler injury complicates the equation. He’s averaging 20.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.9 assists, and losing that production on the second night of a back-to-back creates rotation stress. Stephen Curry remains the primary engine at 27.4 points and 5.1 assists per game, but the depth behind him thins considerably if Butler sits. Brandin Podziemski’s 12.3 points per game don’t replace Butler’s two-way impact, and the Warriors suddenly face usage questions they didn’t have 24 hours ago.
Toronto benefits from the uncertainty. Brandon Ingram leads them at 21.7 points and 6.0 rebounds, while Scottie Barnes contributes 19.6 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 5.4 assists. Without Barrett’s 19.6 points, the Raptors have leaned more heavily on Barnes’ playmaking, and that’s actually helped their offensive efficiency in certain matchups. The line respects Golden State’s home floor but acknowledges the personnel concerns. That’s why it’s not five or six points.
Toronto Raptors Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Raptors are dealing with significant absences, but their top-end talent remains intact. Ingram at 21.7 points gives them a primary scorer who can operate in isolation and create advantages in the halfcourt. Barnes at 19.6 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 5.4 assists functions as their most versatile weapon, capable of initiating offense and defending multiple positions. That combination keeps Toronto competitive even when they’re shorthanded.
The loss of Barrett hurts their perimeter depth, and Chucky Hepburn’s absence removes a playmaker who was averaging 12.8 points and 9.2 assists across 11 appearances. Hepburn’s 2.4 steals per game also provided defensive pressure that Toronto now lacks. Poeltl’s continued absence from a back injury strips away rim protection and interior presence. Without him, the Raptors are vulnerable to teams that attack the paint, and Golden State has the personnel to exploit that weakness.
Toronto’s 12-9 road record suggests they’ve figured out how to win away from home, but context matters. Their recent 110-93 loss to the Lakers showed the limitations when facing elite offensive talent. LeBron James and Luka Doncic combined for 49 points, and the Raptors couldn’t generate enough scoring to stay within range. That’s the blueprint Golden State will follow if Curry gets rolling.
Golden State Warriors Breakdown: The Other Side
Golden State’s identity lives and dies with Curry, who’s averaging 27.4 points and remains one of the league’s most efficient scorers. His 5.1 assists per game facilitate the Warriors’ motion offense, and his gravity creates open looks for role players. At Chase Center, where the Warriors are 17-6, Curry’s effectiveness increases because the crowd energy amplifies his impact on both ends.
Butler’s knee injury is the critical variable. He scored 17 points before leaving Monday’s game against Miami, and if he’s unavailable Tuesday, the Warriors lose their second-best creator and perimeter defender. Podziemski’s 12.3 points don’t replace Butler’s scoring volume or playmaking. Draymond Green is listed as probable after missing Monday with an ankle sprain, and his return would stabilize the defense. Green’s presence matters more than his stats suggest because he orchestrates rotations and provides the vocal leadership this team needs on back-to-backs.
The Warriors’ 8-13 road record versus their 17-6 home mark reveals a team that thrives in familiar settings but struggles with travel and adjustment. Playing at Chase Center on Tuesday gives them the environmental advantage, but the back-to-back factor and potential Butler absence create legitimate concerns about their ability to maintain defensive intensity and offensive rhythm.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to how Golden State manages fatigue and rotation depth. Playing Monday night and turning around for Tuesday creates compression issues, especially if Butler and potentially Green are compromised. The Warriors need Curry to carry a heavier offensive load, and that’s sustainable for stretches but not for 36 minutes against a team that can defend multiple actions.
Toronto’s path to covering involves exploiting Golden State’s interior defense without Poeltl on their own roster. That sounds contradictory, but it’s about Barnes and Ingram attacking closeouts and getting to the rim before the Warriors’ help defense rotates. Ingram’s 21.7 points come from mid-range efficiency and his ability to operate in space. If he can force Golden State into switching, the Raptors create mismatches that generate quality looks.
The total at 226.0 factors in both teams’ offensive capabilities and the likelihood of transition opportunities. Golden State pushes pace at home, and Toronto has the athletes to run with them. Barnes’ 8.3 rebounds help initiate breaks, and Ingram’s scoring in transition adds another dimension. If the Warriors are gassed from the back-to-back, their transition defense suffers, and that’s where Toronto can pile up points.
Defensively, the Raptors need to contain Curry without overhelping and leaving shooters open. That’s easier said than done, especially at Chase Center where the spacing favors Golden State’s motion principles. Without Hepburn’s 2.4 steals per game, Toronto lacks the perimeter pressure to disrupt Curry’s rhythm consistently. The Warriors will hunt mismatches and force Toronto’s depleted roster to defend in space.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking Toronto +3.5 in this spot. The Butler injury and back-to-back scheduling create too many question marks for Golden State to lay a short number with confidence. The Warriors’ 17-6 home record is legitimate, but this is the exact scenario where that advantage gets neutralized. Toronto’s 12-9 road mark shows they can compete away from home, and with Ingram and Barnes both healthy, they have enough offensive firepower to keep this within a possession.
The risk is Curry going supernova and carrying Golden State to a comfortable win regardless of context. He’s capable of dropping 40 and making the rest of the roster’s limitations irrelevant. But betting is about process, not outcomes, and the process here says the Raptors have the situational edge. Golden State’s rotation depth is compromised, and asking them to cover nearly four points on tired legs against a competent opponent feels optimistic.
BASH’S BEST BET: Toronto Raptors +3.5 for 2 units.
The number respects both teams’ records, but it doesn’t fully account for the Warriors’ personnel concerns. Take the points and trust that Toronto’s top-end talent keeps them competitive late. This one stays tight, and that’s all we need.
