RBD leans on his proven T1 system for this NBA betting matchup, breaking down key trends and situational angles for a total play.
Sacramento at Brooklyn
NBA Prediction and Analysis
I made a bad call yesterday (everything looks easy in hindsight, eh?)
I chose an Asterisk Spot instead of a T1 Over.
I had only one high percentage model that said to take the Asterisk Spot, and I had multiple edges on one of the two T1 Over games.
The Asterisk Spot lost.
The T1 Over spots went 1-0-1.
I’m not making the same mistake today.
New Orleans qualifies as the Asterisk Spot to Fade, but I have two T1 Over spots to choose from, and I’m using at least one of them in an IF bet.
Sac/Brook tips off at 6:00 p.m. EST.
GS/Den tips off at 10:00 p.m. EST.
I bought the Brooklyn game.
If it wins I’ll bank the unit, no play on the late game.
If it loses I’ll look to recoup it with a buy on the late game, the strategy being that the odds say a 61% play is not likely to go 0-2.
(If I add the GS game I’ll post the total I buy in the forum.)
The Sac/Brook game grades out stronger anyway, so the timing works out all right for me.
Breaking Down the Numbers
Let’s get into the numbers.
T1 Over is currently 50-32.
That’s 61% with more than 80 games charted, a truly remarkable stat.
The Sac/Brook game also qualifies for one of the two subcategories I chart on totals.
It has a record of 32-20, also 61% with more than 50 plays charted.
The 50-32 record is for all teams.
Team specific numbers add to my reasoning for buying this spot.
Sacramento’s only been in a T1 Over twice, and they’re 1-1.
But Brooklyn has been in this spot 10 times and has a stellar record of 8-2.
That’s an 80% edge breaking the play down into team specific stats.
Tonight’s game also finds the Kings in Game Two of B2B’s.
Sacramento is 9-4 Ov/Un in Game two’s, 69%. Another edge for me and the Over.
Situational Angles
Both teams are bottom feeders in their divisions with no chance of making the postseason.
But that’s been the case for most of the season so there’s no reason to look for them to quit in disappointment, like a team who’s been recently eliminated.
Still, it’s important to look at recent play to see if they’re still putting in a decent effort.
In Sacramento’s last five games they’re 3-2 Ov/Un.
Brooklyn is 2-3.
Using tonight’s number of 221, Brooklyn is the same at 2-3 Ov/Un.
Sacramento is a solid 5-0.
Head to Head, these two met one week ago and they combined for 248 points.
That’s 27 more than I need today.
Line Movement
Today’s game opened at 221′ and that’s where it’s still at for most of the books on my screen.
There are one or two books who have dropped it to 221, and one of our sponsors is down to 219′.
I see extra juice added to the Under at some of the books that have 221′, so it looks like the line will drop.
I think it’s a little high at 221 anyway, so I’ll wait on this one, thinking I can get a better number.
The Play
My play:
Sac/Brook Ov (wait to buy)
Recap
Recap: 0-1
Record: 29-21
Review
I had Charlotte -6.
They began the fourth quarter with a five-point lead at home and proceeded to go scoreless for more than FOUR minutes at the start of the quarter, including 0-2 on free throws.
In a game against the team that was one game ahead of them in the standings, fighting for a better position for the postseason, the heartless Hornets were dead bees in money time, the 4th quarter.
I made a note in my log book to keep that in mind throughout the rest of the season, in case I see them in a must win spot.
UFL Update
I got out of Week 1 with a 3-1 record.
Yay me!
In my next article I’ll post some observations and break down play from week one, and go over the new rule changes and new head coaches.
And I’ll have at least one pick for week two’s games.
