The Houston Rockets arrive in New Orleans as massive favorites, but a 9.5-point point spread on the road is a heavy ask for a team dealing with backcourt depth issues. Bryan Bash breaks down the efficiency gap and why the Pelicans’ recent two-game win streak complicates the market’s narrative.
The Setup: Rockets at Pelicans
The Rockets are laying 9.5 points against a Pelicans squad that’s 5-22 and limping through one of the ugliest seasons in franchise history? The books are begging you to take Houston here, and I’m not buying it. New Orleans just won two straight after a seven-game skid, and they’re catching nearly double digits at home. The market’s disrespecting the Pelicans here, but here’s the thing—Houston’s 8-5 on the road, not exactly world-beaters away from home. The Rockets are the better team, no question, but 9.5 is a massive number in a spot where the home dog has some juice. Vegas knows something we don’t, but I’m not buying it. This screams trap game written all over it.
Houston’s coming off an overtime loss in Denver where they pushed the Nuggets to the brink but couldn’t close. That’s a tough emotional spot, and now they’re traveling to New Orleans on short rest. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are riding a mini-wave of momentum after beating Chicago 114-104 behind 20-point performances from Trey Murphy III and rookie Jeremiah Fears. I’ve seen this movie before—the public’s all over the Rockets because the record says 16-7 versus 5-22, but that’s exactly the spot where New Orleans burns you. Sharp money knows what’s up here, and I’m looking hard at these points.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 18, 2025, 8:00 ET
Location: Smoothie King Center
Spread: Rockets -9.5 (-110) | Pelicans +9.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Rockets -435 | Pelicans +321
Total: 234.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Let’s break down why the books set this number at 9.5. The obvious narrative is staring you in the face: the Rockets are 16-7 and sitting fifth in the Western Conference, while the Pelicans are dead last at 5-22 and 3-12 at home. That’s the surface-level read that casual bettors see, and it’s exactly what Vegas wants you to focus on. The moneyline at -435 for Houston tells you the books expect the Rockets to win straight up, but that 9.5-point spread is the real story here.
Houston’s road record of 8-5 is solid but not dominant. They’re not covering double-digit spreads consistently away from home. The Pelicans, despite their putrid record, have Zion Williamson averaging 21.7 points per game and Trey Murphy III at 21.1 points. That’s legitimate offensive firepower that can keep games competitive, especially at home. The market’s banking on recency bias—everyone remembers the Pelicans’ seven-game losing streak, but they conveniently forget New Orleans just won two straight.
The total at 234.5 suggests the books expect a high-scoring affair, which makes sense given both teams have offensive weapons. But here’s where it gets interesting: if Vegas truly believed Houston would blow the doors off New Orleans, this total would be higher. The 9.5-point spread with a 234.5 total implies a final score around 122-112, which means the books think this game stays within striking distance. That’s a trap, and I’m taking the points all day long.
Rockets Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Houston’s 16-7 record is impressive, and they’re getting elite production from their core. Kevin Durant is averaging 24.8 points per game, while Alperen Sengun is putting up monster numbers at 23.5 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 7.1 assists per contest. Amen Thompson adds another 17.3 points and 7.3 boards, giving the Rockets three legitimate scoring threats. That’s a deep offensive attack that can hurt you in multiple ways.
But let’s talk about the injury situation. Fred VanVleet is done for the season with a torn ACL, which is a massive loss to their backcourt depth and perimeter defense. Tari Eason is questionable with a right oblique strain, and Dorian Finney-Smith won’t be back until January. Those are rotation pieces that matter, especially on the defensive end. The Rockets are still winning games, but they’re not the same team at full strength.
The road split is what concerns me here. Houston’s 8-5 away from home, which is respectable but not dominant. They just played overtime in Denver on Monday night, which means they’re dealing with travel fatigue and emotional letdown after coming up short against the Nuggets. That’s not an ideal spot to lay nearly double digits against a desperate home team. The Rockets will show up, but covering 9.5 on the road in a letdown spot? That’s asking a lot.
Pelicans Breakdown: The Other Side
New Orleans is a dumpster fire on paper at 5-22, but let’s dig deeper. Zion Williamson is healthy and averaging 21.7 points and 5.6 rebounds. Trey Murphy III is having a breakout season at 21.1 points and 6.5 boards per game. Jordan Poole adds 17.7 points from the backcourt. That’s three guys who can get you 20 on any given night, which keeps the Pelicans competitive even when they’re outmatched.
The home/road split is ugly at 3-12 at Smoothie King Center, but context matters. They just beat Chicago 114-104 at home—wait, that was in Chicago. Still, they’re riding momentum from back-to-back wins after a brutal seven-game slide. Rookie Jeremiah Fears dropped 20 points in that Bulls game, showing they’re getting unexpected production from young guys who are playing loose and free.
The big injury concern is Dejounte Murray, who’s been out since September with an Achilles issue and won’t return until after New Year’s. That’s a massive hole in their backcourt, but it also means the current roster has been playing together all season without him. There’s no adjustment period or chemistry issues—this is who they are. And who they are is a team that can score enough to hang around, especially at home where they’re desperate for wins.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to pace and execution. The Rockets want to control tempo with Sengun orchestrating the offense and Durant getting his spots in the mid-range. Houston’s offense is efficient when they’re clicking, and they have the size advantage with Sengun controlling the paint. The Pelicans need to push pace and get out in transition where Zion and Murphy can attack in space.
Defensively, neither team is elite, which explains the 234.5 total. The Rockets are better on that end, but without VanVleet and potentially without Eason, they’re vulnerable on the perimeter. The Pelicans will let Murphy and Poole hunt from three-point range and hope Zion can dominate inside. If New Orleans shoots even 35% from deep, they’ll keep this game within single digits.
The scheduling spot favors the Pelicans. Houston played overtime in Denver on Monday and now has to travel to New Orleans for a Wednesday game. That’s a tough turnaround, especially emotionally after losing a winnable game against the Nuggets. The Pelicans, meanwhile, have fresh legs and are playing at home where they’re desperate to build on their two-game winning streak. The market’s disrespecting New Orleans here, and I’m not falling for it.
Historically, these matchups can get weird. The Rockets should win this game straight up, but covering 9.5 on the road in a letdown spot against a team with legitimate scoring punch? That’s exactly the spot where Houston burns you. The Pelicans don’t need to win—they just need to keep it close, and with Zion, Murphy, and Poole all capable of going off, they have the firepower to do it.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Pelicans +9.5 (-110)
I’m hammering this number before it moves. The Rockets are the better team, but 9.5 is too many points in this spot. Houston’s dealing with travel fatigue, emotional letdown, and injury issues. New Orleans has won two straight and has three guys who can score 20 any night. The public’s all over the Rockets because the records say 16-7 versus 5-22, but that’s exactly what Vegas wants.
This line’s a joke. The Pelicans don’t need to win—they just need to keep it within single digits at home, and they have the offensive firepower to do it. Zion, Murphy, and Poole will get theirs, and if New Orleans shoots even average from three, this game stays close down the stretch. The market’s begging you to lay 9.5 with Houston, and I’m going the other way.
Confidence: 3.5 units on Pelicans +9.5
Sharp money knows what’s up here—this is a trap game, and I’m taking the points all day long. The Rockets win, but the Pelicans cover. Book it.
