The Setup: Rockets at Suns
The books have the Houston Rockets laying 6 points on the road against a Phoenix Suns team that’s 8-2 at home this season? I’ve seen this movie before, and it usually doesn’t end well for the road favorite. But hold up—before you go rushing to take those points with Phoenix, let me tell you why this number exists and why Vegas might be smarter than both of us combined.
The market’s telling a story here, and it starts with one name: Kevin Durant. KD’s out for personal reasons, and suddenly the Rockets are road chalk against a Suns squad that just rattled off three straight wins. The Suns are sitting pretty at 11-6 while Houston’s at 10-4, but that record gap doesn’t tell the whole story. The books are begging you to take Phoenix at home getting points, which means we need to dig deeper into what’s really happening with these rosters.
Here’s what jumps off the page: Houston’s rolling without Durant—yeah, you read that right, without him. KD’s been in a Rockets uniform averaging 24.6 points per game this season, but the real story is Alperen Sengun putting up monster numbers at 22.7 PPG, 10.0 RPG, and 7.3 APG. This kid’s a walking triple-double threat, and the Rockets haven’t missed a beat with their balanced attack. Meanwhile, Phoenix is dealing with their own injury mess—Grayson Allen is out, and he’s been their third-leading scorer at 18.5 PPG.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: November 24, 2025, 9:30 ET
Location: Mortgage Matchup Center
Houston Rockets: 10-4 (5-2 Road)
Phoenix Suns: 11-6 (8-2 Home)
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Rockets -6.0 (-110) | Suns +6.0 (-110)
- Moneyline: Rockets -227 | Suns +182
- Total: Over/Under 226.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
The books know something, and they’re not being subtle about it. They’re making you pay -227 on the moneyline to back Houston straight up, which is serious juice for a road favorite. That’s the kind of number that screams “we respect this team even without their star.”
Look at the roster construction here. Houston’s got depth that Phoenix can’t match right now. Amen Thompson is chipping in 17.2 PPG with 6.4 boards and 5.0 assists, giving the Rockets three legitimate scoring threats. That’s not even mentioning the role players who’ve stepped up. The Rockets are 5-2 on the road this season—they’re not some soft team that wilts away from home.
Phoenix, meanwhile, is leaning heavily on Devin Booker at 26.9 PPG and Dillon Brooks at 21.4 PPG. That’s a potent duo, no question, but when Allen’s out, the scoring depth takes a serious hit. The Suns just beat San Antonio 111-102, but let’s be real—the Spurs aren’t exactly a measuring stick right now.
The market’s set this number at 6 because they know the public sees “home team getting points” and salivates. But sharp money knows what’s up here—Houston’s the more complete team right now, injuries and all. The -6 is designed to make you think twice, and honestly? It should.
Houston Rockets Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Rockets are sitting at 10-4 straight up and they’ve been money on the road at 5-2. This isn’t some fluke—this team’s got legitimate balance and they play with an edge that most young teams don’t have.
Alperen Sengun is the engine that makes this whole thing go. At 22.7 PPG, 10.0 RPG, and 7.3 APG, he’s doing things that big men just don’t do in today’s NBA. He’s a facilitator, a scorer, and a rebounder all wrapped into one package. When you pair him with Amen Thompson’s 17.2 PPG and all-around game, you’ve got two guys who can create offense in multiple ways.
The Durant absence? Sure, it stings to lose 24.6 PPG, but this team’s been built to survive without relying on one guy. They’ve got Steven Adams questionable with ankle tendinopathy and Dorian Finney-Smith out with an ankle injury, but the next-man-up mentality has served them well all season.
Houston just lost to Denver 112-109 in a game where Nikola Jokic went nuclear for 34-10-9. The fact that they kept it within three against the reigning champs tells you everything about their competitive spirit. This team doesn’t quit, and they don’t get blown out easily.
Phoenix Suns Breakdown: The Other Side
The Suns are 11-6 overall and that 8-2 home record is legit impressive. When they’re playing at the Mortgage Matchup Center, they’ve been nearly unbeatable. That’s the kind of split that makes you want to back them in this spot.
Devin Booker is doing Devin Booker things—26.9 PPG and 7.1 APG makes him one of the most dangerous two-way guards in the league. Dillon Brooks has been a revelation at 21.4 PPG, giving Phoenix that second scoring punch they desperately needed. The problem is what happens after those two.
With Grayson Allen out (18.5 PPG), the Suns are missing their third-best scorer and a guy who spaces the floor at an elite level. Ryan Dunn’s out with a wrist injury too, which thins the rotation even more. They beat the Spurs 111-102 on Sunday, but that was a game where Brooks went for 25 and Booker added 24. They’re going to need similar performances to hang with Houston’s depth.
The concerning part? Phoenix is just 3-4 on the road this season, which tells you they’re a different team when they leave home. But at home? They’ve got the juice to compete with anyone.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This is exactly the spot where Phoenix burns you. Everyone’s going to see that 8-2 home record and those points and think they’re getting a gift. But let’s talk about what actually matters in this matchup.
Houston’s got the superior depth, plain and simple. When you can roll out Sengun, Thompson, and a supporting cast that’s proven they can contribute, you’ve got options. Phoenix is going to run Booker and Brooks into the ground trying to keep pace, and eventually, that lack of depth catches up to you.
The total sitting at 226.5 is interesting because both teams can score. Houston just put up 109 against Denver’s elite defense, and Phoenix dropped 111 on the Spurs. But here’s the thing—Houston’s going to control tempo and make this a halfcourt game. They’re not going to get into a track meet with Phoenix and let Booker cook in transition.
The key is Sengun’s ability to exploit Phoenix’s interior defense. Without a true rim protector who can match his size and skill, he’s going to feast in the paint. If he’s getting 10 boards and 7 assists while scoring 20+, Houston’s going to have too many weapons for Phoenix to account for.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m hammering this number before it moves. Give me the Houston Rockets -6 on the road, and I’m playing it with confidence.
The public’s all over Phoenix getting points at home, which means the sharp money’s on Houston laying the number. The Rockets are the deeper team, they’re playing with house money without Durant, and they’ve proven they can win on the road. Phoenix’s home dominance is real, but this is a bad matchup for them without Allen’s shooting and spacing.
Sengun’s going to control this game, Thompson’s going to make plays, and Houston’s depth is going to wear down a thin Suns rotation. I’m looking for the Rockets to win this one by 8-10 points and cover comfortably.
The Play: Rockets -6 (-110) | 2 Units
The market’s disrespecting Phoenix here on purpose—they want you to take the bait. I’m fading the home team and riding with the road favorite that’s got all the pieces to get this done. Vegas knows something we don’t, but I’m not buying it. Houston’s the side, and I’m all over it.
