The Houston Rockets visit Portland as 6.5-point favorites, and with Alperen Sengun and Fred VanVleet both sidelined, our ATS pick evaluates if Kevin Durant can carry a depleted roster at the Moda Center.
The Setup: Rockets at Trail Blazers
The Rockets are laying 6.5 points in Portland on Friday night, and on the surface, this number makes sense. Houston sits at 22-12 with Kevin Durant anchoring a playoff-caliber roster, while Portland checks in at 18-20 and fighting for relevance in the West. But here’s the thing — this line was built before you account for what Houston’s actually rolling out there. Alperen Sengun is out with a sprained ankle, and Fred VanVleet is sidelined as well. That’s not just rotation shuffling — that’s removing 21.8 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 6.5 assists per game from your second-leading scorer, plus the veteran point guard who posted a 41-19 record when active. Let me walk you through why this line exists, and more importantly, why it might not hold up once you factor in how this matchup actually plays out over 48 minutes at the Moda Center.
Portland just beat this exact Houston team 103-102 in a wild finish earlier this week, with Deni Avdija going off for 41 points. The Blazers are riding a four-game win streak, and while they’re missing Jerami Grant (20.0 PPG), they’ve found their offensive identity around Avdija’s 26.3 points per game. The market is giving Houston respect based on their 22-12 record and Durant’s presence, but I keep coming back to this efficiency gap — or lack thereof — when you strip away Sengun’s interior presence and VanVleet’s floor management. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: January 9, 2026, 10:00 ET
Venue: Moda Center at the Rose Quarter
Spread: Houston Rockets -6.5 (-110) | Portland Trail Blazers +6.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Rockets -256 | Trail Blazers +202
Total: 220.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market opened Houston at 6.5, and that number reflects a few key factors: the Rockets’ superior record (22-12 vs 18-20), their road performance (11-10), and the presence of Kevin Durant as a legitimate superstar. Durant’s averaging 26.1 points per game, and when you pair that with Houston’s conference ranking at sixth, the line makes logical sense. Portland sits ninth in the West at 9-9 at home, which doesn’t exactly scream home-court advantage worth more than a couple points.
But once you dig into the matchup data, the picture changes. Sengun’s absence removes Houston’s most versatile offensive hub — a guy who was facilitating 6.5 assists per game from the center position while scoring 21.8 points. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts. Steven Adams will slide into the starting lineup, but Adams isn’t replicating that offensive creation. VanVleet’s absence compounds the problem. The Rockets went 41-19 with him on the floor, and now they’re handing primary ball-handling duties to Amen Thompson (18.2 PPG, 5.3 APG) and potentially rookie Reed Sheppard, who barely saw minutes this season.
The total sits at 220.5, which suggests the market expects a moderately paced game with decent offensive output. When you do the math over roughly 96-98 possessions, that’s asking both teams to hover around 1.12-1.15 points per possession. Portland just put up 103 against this Houston defense earlier this week, and that was with Sengun available for most of the game. The efficiency gap I’m looking for here isn’t materializing in Houston’s favor — not with this depleted rotation.
Houston Rockets Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Let’s start with what’s still working: Kevin Durant at 26.1 PPG is the most reliable offensive weapon on the floor. He’ll get his buckets regardless of scheme or situation. Amen Thompson has emerged as a legitimate secondary creator at 18.2 points and 7.5 rebounds per game, and his athleticism gives Houston transition opportunities. But here’s where the math gets tricky — without Sengun’s playmaking and VanVleet’s veteran control, Houston’s half-court offense loses its structural integrity.
The Rockets are 11-10 on the road, which isn’t bad, but it’s not dominant either. They’re being asked to cover nearly seven points in a hostile environment (even if Portland’s 9-9 at home) with a rotation that’s missing two of its top four contributors. Steven Adams brings physicality and rebounding, but he’s not a scoring threat. Clint Capela will see increased minutes off the bench, but neither big man replicates what Sengun provided as a passing hub.
The main risk here is simple: Houston’s offensive ceiling drops significantly without their second-leading scorer and primary point guard. Durant can carry them to competitiveness, but covering 6.5 on the road requires offensive depth Houston simply doesn’t have tonight. Reed Sheppard and Aaron Holiday are your backup point guard options — that’s not a recipe for consistent half-court execution against a Portland team that just hung 103 on you.
Portland Trail Blazers Breakdown: The Other Side
Portland’s riding momentum, and it’s built around Deni Avdija’s breakout season. At 26.3 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 7.0 assists per game, Avdija has become a legitimate offensive engine. He just torched Houston for 41 points in their last meeting, and while you can’t expect that every night, it shows he can exploit this matchup. Shaedon Sharpe adds 21.5 PPG, giving Portland a legitimate one-two punch on the perimeter.
The Blazers are missing Jerami Grant (20.0 PPG), which is significant, but they’ve adjusted. Kris Murray and Caleb Love have picked up minutes, and Portland’s found offensive rhythm during their four-game win streak. At 9-9 at home, they’re not world-beaters at the Moda Center, but they’re competitive. Jrue Holiday is listed as doubtful, so don’t expect him to factor in.
What Portland brings to this matchup is confidence and familiarity. They just beat this Houston team two days ago. They know Durant’s going to get his 26-28 points, but they also know that without Sengun and VanVleet, there’s less secondary creation to worry about. That allows Portland to load up defensively on Durant and force Houston’s role players to beat them. Over 96 possessions, that’s a winning formula for keeping this game within the number.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in half-court execution and offensive depth. Houston’s advantage on paper disappears when you remove Sengun’s 21.8 points and 6.5 assists from the equation. Portland doesn’t need to outplay Houston across the board — they just need to stay within striking distance and let Avdija and Sharpe create enough offense to keep pace with Durant.
When you do that math over 96-98 possessions, Houston needs to generate roughly 113-115 points to cover the 6.5-point spread if Portland hits their expected output around 107-108. Can Durant, Thompson, and a patchwork rotation generate that kind of offensive efficiency on the road? I’m skeptical. Durant will get his 26-28, Thompson might add 18-20, but after that, you’re relying on Steven Adams, Clint Capela, and inexperienced guards to fill the gap. That’s not a 115-point offense.
Portland’s advantage is simple: they’re healthier in the backcourt and wing positions where this game will be decided. Avdija can attack mismatches, Sharpe can create off the dribble, and Portland’s role players know their spots. Houston’s missing the two players who made their offense flow beyond Durant isolation. That’s not just a rotation issue — it’s a structural problem that affects every possession.
I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get Houston there. The Blazers don’t need to win outright (though they might). They just need to stay within seven, and with Houston’s depleted depth chart, that’s the more likely outcome.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Portland Trail Blazers +6.5 (-110) | 2 Units
I’m backing Portland to cover at home. Houston’s missing too much offensive creation to confidently lay nearly seven points on the road. Sengun’s absence removes 21.8 points and 6.5 assists per game, while VanVleet’s sideline stint eliminates the veteran steadiness that produced a 41-19 record when active. Durant will keep Houston competitive, but competitive doesn’t cover 6.5 — it keeps you within the number.
Portland just beat this team 103-102, and that was with Sengun available. Now they’re catching nearly seven points at home with Avdija rolling at 26.3 PPG and Sharpe adding 21.5. The math works in Portland’s favor when you project this over 96 possessions. Houston’s ceiling drops, Portland’s confidence is high, and the line doesn’t reflect the injury impact.
The main risk is Durant going supernova for 35-40 and willing Houston to a double-digit win. It’s possible — he’s Kevin Durant. But over the long run, this number is inflated based on Houston’s record without accounting for their current roster reality. Give me the home dog with offensive firepower and recent success in this exact matchup. Portland +6.5 for two units.
