This matchup presents an interesting contrarian opportunity at -3.5, but it requires understanding exactly what we’re getting with San Antonio on the road. The Timberwolves are favored as the home team coming off an emotional win against Boston, but the Spurs have shown resilience without their best player and continue to find ways to win.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: November 30, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Target Center, Minneapolis
Spread: Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 (-110) | San Antonio Spurs +3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Timberwolves -165 | Spurs +145
Total: Over/Under 233.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Minnesota is favored at -3.5 because they just knocked off the defending champion Celtics at home, and the market is pricing in both home court advantage and recency bias from that 119-115 victory. The Timberwolves put six guys in double figures against Boston and showed balance on both ends. But here’s where it gets interesting: San Antonio is a team that’s been grinding without its best player and has actually managed a respectable record despite Wembanyama’s absence.
The Spurs’ 13-5 record was built with Wembanyama healthy for the first 12 games. Since he went down on November 14, they’ve adjusted their roster and offensive approach. They’re not the same team that was dominating early in the season, but they’ve shown they can still compete with quality opponents. De’Aaron Fox has stepped up since his return from a hamstring injury on November 8, and the supporting cast of Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, and Harrison Barnes proved against Denver (in the NBA Cup) that they can produce without Wembanyama in the lineup.
Minnesota’s home record (6-3) is solid but not dominant. They’ve been inconsistent this season, which is why they’re just now getting their first win against a team with a winning record after eight tries. The Timberwolves haven’t shown they’re a fortress at Target Center—they’re a good home team, but not an elite one.
Spurs Breakdown: Operating Without Their Star
San Antonio is navigating unfamiliar territory without Victor Wembanyama, their franchise centerpiece who was averaging 26.2 points and 12.9 rebounds before going down. The loss of Wembanyama fundamentally changes the Spurs’ identity, but the team has proven capable of winning games through balanced scoring and solid defense.
Key Available Players:
De’Aaron Fox: Recently returned from hamstring injury, averaging 24.0 PPG and 6.9 APG in limited games since his November 8 return. Fox is still ramping up and will need to shoulder heavy offensive responsibility without Wembanyama.
Devin Vassell: Dropped 35 points (7-9 from three) in the NBA Cup win over Denver, showing the Spurs can generate offensive firepower from multiple sources.
Julian Champagnie: Contributing 25 PPG and strong rebounding (10 boards vs Denver) in extended minutes due to injuries.
Harrison Barnes: Veteran presence and reliable three-point shooting in the supporting cast.
Note: Stephon Castle is out with a hip injury, further limiting San Antonio’s guard depth.
Against Denver in the NBA Cup, the Spurs showed they could score without Wembanyama, particularly from beyond the arc. Vassell’s 7-for-9 three-point shooting and Champagnie’s presence in the paint provided scoring depth. The question for Minnesota is whether they can contain this multi-pronged offensive attack.
The concern for San Antonio is that they’re missing not just scoring but also defensive presence. Wembanyama leads the league in blocks—a critical element they’re lacking. The Timberwolves’ offensive firepower could be more difficult to contain without that rim protection.
Timberwolves Breakdown: Streaky but Surging
Minnesota sits at 11-8, and while that’s respectable, they’ve been inconsistent much of the season. Anthony Edwards is their alpha dog at 28.7 PPG (averaging 38.5 PPG over his last four games heading into this matchup), and he just proved he can take over games by dropping 39 on Boston. Julius Randle is contributing 23.1 PPG and 7.6 RPG, giving Minnesota a solid one-two punch.
The Celtics loss showed the Timberwolves’ ceiling—they can put six guys in double figures and execute on both ends when playing well. But their inconsistency is also evident. They’re 6-3 at home, which gives them an edge in this specific matchup, but it’s not the kind of dominant home court advantage that guarantees wins against quality road opponents.
Minnesota’s real strength this season has been their defense (114.2 PPG allowed, ranked 11th), but they’re not imposing their will on opponents consistently. Edwards’ hot streak is real and dangerous, but the Timberwolves can’t rely on that level of output night-to-night.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
Without Wembanyama, this becomes a De’Aaron Fox vs. Anthony Edwards showcase. Fox is still ramping up after missing the first eight games of the season and will need to shoulder heavy offensive responsibility. Edwards is playing at an MVP level right now, having scored 39 against Boston just yesterday.
The X-factor is three-point shooting and pace. The Spurs proved against Denver that they can get hot from distance (Vassell’s 7-for-9 is fluky, but it showed the team’s capability). If San Antonio’s shooters can get to their spots and push pace, they can make this competitive despite the roster disadvantage. Minnesota wants to slow things down, establish control, and lean on their home crowd.
The other critical element: can the Spurs’ defense hold up without Wembanyama’s rim protection? Edwards finished with 39 against Boston, but he also had to be efficient to get there. If Minnesota gets into a rhythm early, the Spurs’ interior defense will be tested repeatedly.
Key Betting Consideration: The Spurs are 5-3 on the road this season, showing they don’t fold in hostile environments. They just won an NBA Cup game in Denver. Minnesota is 6-3 at home but has struggled to blow out quality opponents. The 3.5-point gap isn’t massive given these circumstances.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: San Antonio Spurs +3.5 (-110)
I’m taking the Spurs getting nearly four points on the road, but with clear-eyed understanding of what this team is right now: a shorthanded squad missing its best player, trying to steal a game in Minnesota.
The value here isn’t that the Spurs are better than the Timberwolves—they’re not, especially without Wembanyama. The value is that 3.5 points doesn’t fully account for San Antonio’s proven ability to win games without their franchise player. They’ve gone 3-1 since Wembanyama went down (outside of the NBA Cup). De’Aaron Fox just returned and is starting to get his legs back. Vassell and Champagnie showed they can carry the load in Denver.
Minnesota is favored largely on recency bias from the Boston win and home court mystique. But this is the same Timberwolves team that had just lost to OKC, Sacramento, and Arizona in the stretch before beating Boston. They’re streaky, and Edwards’ 39-point outburst is the exception, not the standard.
The Spurs’ road resilience is real. They travel well and don’t panic in tough environments. Against a Timberwolves team that hasn’t established home dominance, getting 3.5 points is fair value for a team that’s proven it can compete without its best player.
I’m putting 1.5 units on Spurs +3.5. This isn’t about San Antonio being better—it’s about the market overvaluing Minnesota’s home advantage and recent win. Sharp money recognizes that a shorthanded Spurs team competing on the road in a close number is the better side.
