The market is laying 3 points with the Suns, but Atlanta is fresh off Jalen Johnson’s historic 32-point, 15-rebound masterclass. This best bet explores if the Hawks’ 14-12 road comfort can finally translate to a signature home win despite missing Kristaps Porzingis.
The Suns are catching 3 points in Atlanta on Friday night, and that’s a number that tells you the market sees two teams trending in opposite directions. Phoenix sits at 27-17 overall but carries a 13-12 road mark that’s considerably softer than their 14-5 home performance. Atlanta’s 7-13 at State Farm Arena, but they just knocked off Memphis behind a Jalen Johnson explosion. This line exists because the Hawks’ home struggles meet Phoenix’s road inconsistency in a pace-up environment that narrows margins.
The Suns are laying just 3 on the road against a Hawks team that’s been better away from home all season. That’s not a respect line for Phoenix—it’s a recognition that road Suns and home Hawks create volatility. Devin Booker’s averaging 25.3 points with 6.3 assists, Dillon Brooks adds 20.5 per game, and Grayson Allen chips in 16.3. That’s legitimate firepower. But when you’re 13-12 on the road as a playoff-caliber team, the market’s telling you those numbers don’t travel the same way.
Atlanta’s dealing with injuries to Kristaps Porzingis and Zaccharie Risacher, both out with left Achilles tendinitis and a left knee bone contusion respectively. But Jalen Johnson just dropped 32 points and 15 rebounds on Memphis, Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s averaging 20.5 per game, and CJ McCollum provides 18.5 nightly. The Hawks have offensive weapons—they just haven’t figured out how to defend at home. That’s the tension in this number.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- Date: Friday, January 23, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
- Location: State Farm Arena
- TV: FanDuel SN SE (Home), Arizona’s Family 3TV, Suns Live, NBA League Pass (Away)
- Spread: Suns -3.0 (-110) | Hawks +3.0 (-110)
- Moneyline: Suns -149 | Hawks +122
- Total: 233.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
Phoenix is favored by 3 because the talent gap is real, but the situational context keeps this number compressed. The Suns just beat Philadelphia 116-110 on Tuesday with Booker scoring 27 and Jalen Green adding 12 in his return. That’s a road win in the second game of a back-to-back, which shows resilience. But 13-12 on the road means Phoenix has dropped nearly as many as they’ve won away from home. That’s not the profile of a team that should be laying significant chalk in hostile environments.
Atlanta’s 7-13 at State Farm Arena, which is brutal for a team trying to stay in play-in contention. But they’re 14-12 on the road, which creates an interesting dynamic. The Hawks play better when they’re not expected to defend their home court. That road success suggests they’re more comfortable as underdogs or in faster-paced environments where defensive lapses matter less. Johnson’s 32-point, 15-rebound performance against Memphis shows what this team can do when their primary offensive engine is rolling.
The total at 233.5 reflects two teams that can score but don’t consistently defend. Phoenix allows points on the road, and Atlanta’s home defense has been porous all season. The market’s anticipating a game that gets into the 115-120 range for both sides, which fits the personnel. Booker, Brooks, and Allen can all get hot from deep. Johnson, Alexander-Walker, and McCollum provide similar scoring bursts for Atlanta. This number assumes minimal resistance on either end.
Suns Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Phoenix runs through Booker’s 25.3 points and 6.3 assists, and when he’s efficient, the Suns are dangerous. Brooks at 20.5 per game gives them a secondary scorer who can create his own shot, and Allen’s 16.3 points with 3.8 assists adds floor spacing. That’s three guys who can hit 20 on any given night, which creates offensive flexibility. The problem is translating that firepower on the road, where their 13-12 mark suggests they struggle with consistency.
The Suns beat Philadelphia on Tuesday in the second game of a back-to-back, which shows they can grind out road wins when needed. But that was against a 76ers team also playing on zero rest. Atlanta’s coming off Wednesday’s win in Memphis, so the rest advantage isn’t significant. Phoenix’s road vulnerability comes down to defensive intensity—when they’re not locked in, teams like Atlanta with multiple scoring threats can exploit transition opportunities.
Grayson Allen’s 16.3 points on 3.8 assists means he’s not just a catch-and-shoot guy—he’s facilitating offense. That matters in a game where pace will likely push both teams into the 100-possession range. If Phoenix can control tempo and limit transition buckets, their talent advantage shows up. If Atlanta speeds this up and forces the Suns into a track meet, the 3-point spread gets very narrow very quickly.
Hawks Breakdown: The Other Side
Atlanta’s offense runs through Jalen Johnson’s 23.2 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 8.0 assists. That’s a triple-double threat every night, and his 32-point explosion against Memphis shows he can take over games. Alexander-Walker at 20.5 per game and McCollum at 18.5 give the Hawks three legitimate scoring options. The issue is defense—7-13 at home means they’re not protecting State Farm Arena, and that’s a problem when you’re catching 3 against a team with Phoenix’s offensive firepower.
The Hawks are without Porzingis and Risacher, both dealing with injuries. Porzingis has missed five straight with left Achilles tendinitis, and Risacher’s been out five games with a left knee bone contusion. That removes size and defensive versatility, which matters against a Suns team that can attack from multiple angles. Luke Kennard and Onyeka Okongwu both scored 18 against Memphis, which shows Atlanta has depth. But losing Porzingis’ rim protection and Risacher’s wing defense makes it harder to contain Booker and Brooks.
Atlanta’s 14-12 road record versus their 7-13 home mark is one of the season’s stranger splits. They play looser on the road, which suggests they’re better when expectations are lower. At home, they’ve been tight and inconsistent. That’s not ideal when you’re catching 3 against a playoff team. But if Johnson replicates his Memphis performance and the Hawks push pace, this game could stay close deep into the fourth quarter.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in transition and on the defensive glass. Atlanta wants to push tempo and create easy buckets before Phoenix can set their defense. The Hawks’ 14-12 road record suggests they thrive in chaotic, up-tempo environments where defensive lapses are mitigated by offensive volume. If they can force turnovers and get out in transition, Johnson becomes a nightmare in the open floor with his size and playmaking ability.
Phoenix needs to control pace and limit second-chance opportunities. The Suns’ 13-12 road mark tells you they struggle when games get loose and possessions pile up. Booker’s at his best in structured half-court sets where he can exploit mismatches. If Atlanta speeds this up and pushes the possession count into the 105-110 range, the talent gap narrows. If Phoenix keeps it in the mid-90s, their efficiency advantage shows up.
The total at 233.5 assumes both teams get to 115-118, which requires minimal defensive resistance. Atlanta’s home defense has been porous, and Phoenix’s road defense hasn’t been much better. The key is whether the Suns can exploit Atlanta’s interior without Porzingis. If Brooks and Allen can attack the paint and draw fouls, Phoenix controls the game. If Atlanta’s perimeter shooting stays hot and they force the Suns into a shootout, the Hawks cover easily.
Booker’s 25.3 points and 6.3 assists versus Johnson’s 23.2 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 8.0 assists is the individual matchup that swings this game. If Johnson dominates the glass and facilitates offense, Atlanta stays within striking distance. If Booker gets hot and Phoenix’s secondary scorers contribute, the Suns pull away late. The 3-point spread suggests the market expects a close game decided in the final five minutes.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking the Hawks +3 at home for 2 units. Phoenix’s 13-12 road record and Atlanta’s recent offensive explosion against Memphis create value on the home dog. Johnson’s 32-point, 15-rebound performance shows the Hawks have a go-to option who can match Booker’s production. The Suns are the better team, but 3 points in a pace-up environment with Atlanta’s weapons is too narrow.
The risk is Phoenix’s talent advantage overwhelming Atlanta’s defensive deficiencies. If Booker, Brooks, and Allen all get going, the Suns can push this to a double-digit win. But Atlanta’s 14-12 road record versus their 7-13 home mark suggests they’re better than their State Farm Arena results indicate. If they play with the same intensity they showed in Memphis, they keep this within a possession.
BASH’S BEST BET: Hawks +3 for 2 units. Phoenix is the better team, but the situational context and Atlanta’s offensive firepower make this number playable. Johnson’s triple-double threat and the Hawks’ ability to push pace create enough volatility to keep this close. Take the points at home.
