Detroit looks to protect its top spot in the East as Phoenix visits Little Caesars Arena. Bash breaks down the point spread as the Pistons welcome back Jalen Duren and Tobias Harris to a healthy rotation.
The Setup: Phoenix Suns at Detroit Pistons
The Detroit Pistons are laying 7 points (BetOnline) at home against the Phoenix Suns on Thursday night. Detroit sits atop the Eastern Conference at 28-10, while Phoenix limps in at 24-16 and seventh in the West. The Pistons are 14-4 at Little Caesars Arena, and they’re getting back two key rotation pieces in Jalen Duren and Tobias Harris, both listed as probable. Meanwhile, the Suns are dealing with a questionable Devin Booker after he tweaked his ankle Tuesday in Miami, and they’re coming off a game where they blew a lead and lost despite solid scoring output.
Here’s the thing — this line isn’t just about records and home court. Once you dig into the matchup data, you start to see why the market trusts Detroit to cover a full touchdown here. The Pistons aren’t just winning games; they’re doing it with elite talent and depth that the Suns simply can’t match right now. Let me walk you through why this line exists and why I’m leaning into Detroit’s side of the equation.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: January 15, 2026, 7:00 ET
Venue: Little Caesars Arena
TV Network: Home: FanDuel SN DET | Away: Arizona’s Family 3TV, Suns Live, NBA League Pass
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Detroit Pistons -7.0 (-110) | Phoenix Suns +7.0 (-110)
- Moneyline: Detroit Pistons -278 | Phoenix Suns +218
- Total: Over 223.0 (-110) | Under 223.0 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
The market landed on Detroit -7 for a few clear reasons. First, the Pistons own the best record in the East and are getting healthier at exactly the right time. Jalen Duren, who’s averaging 17.9 points and 10.6 rebounds per game, has been out for four straight contests but is probable to return. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts. Duren’s presence in the paint completely changes Detroit’s interior defense and rebounding margin, two areas where Phoenix has struggled to generate consistent advantages.
Second, Cade Cunningham is playing at an All-NBA level, posting 26.7 points and 9.7 assists per game. That’s elite shot creation and playmaking that forces opposing defenses into constant rotation. When you pair Cunningham’s scoring and facilitation with Duren’s rim presence, you’re looking at a two-man game that Phoenix doesn’t have an answer for, especially if Booker sits or plays compromised.
The Suns, meanwhile, are dealing with legitimate uncertainty. Booker is questionable with an ankle issue he sustained in Miami, and while he gutted through 40 minutes in that loss, Thursday on a back-to-back presents a different challenge. If Booker sits, Phoenix loses its primary shot creator and a guy averaging 25.2 points and 6.5 assists. That’s a massive hole in offensive efficiency that Jordan Goodwin and Ryan Dunn simply can’t fill at the same level.
I keep coming back to this efficiency gap. Detroit is 14-4 at home for a reason — they control tempo, they defend at a high level, and they have multiple guys who can score in the half court. Phoenix is 10-11 on the road, and that split tells you everything about how they struggle to impose their will away from home.
Phoenix Suns Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Suns have talent, no question. Devin Booker is one of the league’s most complete scorers, and Dillon Brooks has been a revelation this season at 21.3 points per game. Grayson Allen adds another scoring dimension at 15.7 points, giving Phoenix three legitimate offensive weapons. That’s enough firepower to hang with most teams on most nights.
But here’s the problem: Phoenix’s road splits expose their lack of depth and defensive consistency. At 10-11 away from home, they’re barely above .500, and when you factor in a back-to-back situation after a tough loss in Miami, the context gets worse. They just surrendered 127 points to a Heat team that got 29 from Bam Adebayo and 27 from Norman Powell, including a dagger three in the final minute. That’s not championship defense — that’s a team that struggles to get stops when it matters.
If Booker sits or plays limited minutes, the offensive burden falls entirely on Brooks and Allen. That’s a significant downgrade in shot creation and playmaking, and it forces Phoenix into more isolation-heavy possessions that play directly into Detroit’s defensive strengths. The Suns need Booker healthy and aggressive to have a realistic chance to cover here, and the injury report suggests that’s far from guaranteed.
Detroit Pistons Breakdown: The Other Side
Detroit is humming right now, and the return of Duren and Harris only amplifies their advantages. Cunningham is the engine, but Duren’s rim protection and rebounding give the Pistons a physical edge that few teams can match. At 17.9 points and 10.6 boards, Duren is a double-double machine who also alters shots and cleans the glass. His presence alone forces opposing offenses to adjust their approach in the paint.
Tobias Harris, averaging 13.4 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 2.5 assists, provides veteran scoring and floor spacing that keeps defenses honest. After a five-game absence, Harris is probable to return, and that means Detroit gets back a reliable mid-range scorer who can punish closeouts and facilitate secondary actions. The Pistons’ depth is a real weapon here — they can rotate fresh bodies and maintain defensive intensity for 48 minutes.
At 14-4 at home, Detroit has been dominant at Little Caesars Arena. They control pace, they defend the three-point line, and they finish possessions with Duren crashing the offensive glass. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests for Phoenix because Detroit can exploit every weakness in the Suns’ road profile.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the paint and on the glass. Detroit with Duren back will dominate second-chance opportunities and rim protection, two areas where Phoenix has been vulnerable all season. The Suns don’t have a true rim protector, and when you’re facing a team with Duren and Cunningham attacking the basket in pick-and-roll actions, that’s a problem that compounds over 96 possessions.
Offensively, Phoenix needs Booker to create advantages in isolation and generate open looks for Brooks and Allen. If Booker sits, the Suns lose their best playmaker and the guy who bends defenses with his shooting gravity. Detroit can then load up on Brooks and Allen, force them into contested looks, and live with the results. That’s a winning formula for the home team.
Pace will also favor Detroit. The Pistons control tempo at home, and they’re comfortable playing in the half court where Cunningham can orchestrate and Duren can establish position. Phoenix wants to push in transition and generate easy buckets before defenses set, but on a back-to-back with tired legs, that’s a difficult style to sustain for 48 minutes. When you do the math over a full game, Detroit’s efficiency edge and home-court advantage add up to more than 7 points.
The main risk here is Booker playing through the ankle issue and going nuclear for 35-plus points. He’s capable of those performances, and if he gets hot early, Phoenix can stay within striking distance. But I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there. Detroit is too deep, too healthy, and too good at home to let a compromised Suns team hang around.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Detroit Pistons -7.0 (-110) | 2 Units
I’m laying the points with Detroit at home. The Pistons are getting back Duren and Harris, they’re facing a Phoenix team on a back-to-back with a questionable Booker, and they have every matchup advantage you want to see when laying a touchdown. Cunningham’s playmaking, Duren’s interior presence, and Detroit’s home-court dominance create a margin that Phoenix simply can’t close without their best player at full strength.
The main risk is Booker suiting up and playing hero ball, but even if he does, I trust Detroit’s depth and defensive versatility to limit his impact over four quarters. The Pistons win this game by double digits if Booker sits, and they still cover by a possession or two if he plays compromised. That’s the kind of margin I’m willing to bet on with 2 units.
Detroit -7 at home. Lock it in.
