The 21-11 Houston Rockets look to improve their elite 10-2 home record as they host the Phoenix Suns on Monday night. Bryan Bash breaks down if the 8-point point spread accounts for Alperen Sengun’s absence and the Suns’ emotional fatigue after their recent buzzer-beater.
The Setup: Suns at Rockets
The Houston Rockets are laying 8 points at home against the Phoenix Suns on Monday night at Toyota Center, and on the surface, this number makes sense. Houston sits at 21-11 with a 10-2 home record, while Phoenix comes in at 21-14 and just 9-9 on the road. Here’s the thing — this line isn’t just about records. It’s about a matchup where Houston’s depth and pace should create margin even without Alperen Sengun, who’s ruled out with an ankle injury.
Let me walk you through why this line exists and why I actually think the number undersells what Houston can do in this spot. Phoenix is coming off an emotional win over Oklahoma City where Devin Booker hit a game-winner with 0.7 seconds left. That’s the kind of win that drains you mentally and physically, especially when you’re immediately flying to Houston for a road game against a team that plays with relentless pace. The Suns are also without Grayson Allen, who’s been their third-leading scorer at 16.3 points per game. When you factor in the travel, the emotional letdown, and the personnel disadvantage, this spread starts to look more reasonable than generous.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Phoenix Suns at Houston Rockets
Date: January 5, 2026
Time: 8:00 ET
Venue: Toyota Center
Current Odds (Bovada):
Spread: Rockets -8.0 (-110) | Suns +8.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Rockets -320 | Suns +260
Total: 224.0 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market landed on Rockets -8.0 because Houston’s home dominance is legitimate and Phoenix’s road struggles are documented. That 10-2 home record for the Rockets isn’t just about winning — it’s about how they win. They control tempo, they defend multiple positions with Amen Thompson, and they have Kevin Durant operating as the most efficient scorer on the floor most nights.
But here’s what makes this number interesting: Alperen Sengun is out. He’s averaging 21.8 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 6.5 assists per game, which means Houston is missing a legitimate offensive hub. So why is the line still 8? Because the Rockets have the depth to absorb this loss better than most teams would. They still have Durant putting up 25.7 points per game, and Amen Thompson has emerged as a legitimate two-way force at 18.0 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per contest.
Phoenix, meanwhile, is dealing with its own personnel issues. Grayson Allen is out, and while Dillon Brooks has been excellent at 21.4 points per game, the Suns don’t have the same rotational flexibility they had earlier in the season. Devin Booker is still Devin Booker at 25.7 points and 6.4 assists, but when you’re on the road without your third-best scorer, you need everything to break right. Against a Rockets team that defends with length and energy, that’s a tough ask.
Phoenix Suns Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Suns are built around Booker’s shot creation and Brooks’ emergence as a legitimate secondary scorer. That 21.4 points per game from Brooks has been a revelation, giving Phoenix a second option who can create his own shot and take pressure off Booker. But without Allen, the Suns lose a floor spacer who was averaging 16.3 points and shooting well from deep. That matters in a game where Houston will pack the paint and force Phoenix to beat them from the perimeter.
Phoenix’s road record of 9-9 tells you they’re inconsistent away from home, and when you dig into the matchup data, you see why. They don’t have the defensive versatility to match up with teams like Houston that can throw multiple ball-handlers and cutters at you. Booker will get his numbers — he always does — but the question is whether the supporting cast can generate enough efficient offense to keep pace with a Rockets team that will push tempo and hunt transition opportunities.
The other concern for Phoenix is the emotional and physical toll of that Oklahoma City game. Booker hit a hero shot with 0.7 seconds left, and Jordan Goodwin went off for 26 points with eight 3-pointers. That’s the kind of performance that’s hard to replicate, especially on the road in a tougher matchup. The Suns are flying into Houston with less rest and facing a team that will make them work on every possession.
Houston Rockets Breakdown: The Other Side
The Rockets are a different animal at home. That 10-2 record at Toyota Center reflects a team that controls pace, defends multiple positions, and has enough scoring punch to pull away from opponents. Kevin Durant is still one of the most efficient scorers in basketball, and at 25.7 points per game, he’s the best player on the floor in this matchup. Amen Thompson has been a revelation, averaging 18.0 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 5.2 assists while defending multiple positions and pushing the pace in transition.
Even without Sengun, Houston has the depth to generate offense. They play fast, they defend with length, and they don’t rely on one player to carry the offensive load. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts. When you have Durant, Thompson, and a supporting cast that can knock down open shots, you don’t need Sengun to win by double digits against a road team that’s shorthanded and emotionally drained.
The Rockets’ defensive versatility is what separates them in this matchup. They can switch across multiple positions, they protect the rim, and they force opponents into tough shots. Against a Suns team that’s missing a key floor spacer in Allen, Houston can load up on Booker and Brooks and make everyone else beat them. That’s a winning formula at home.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in transition and on the margins. Houston will push pace and hunt early offense, while Phoenix will try to slow the game down and let Booker operate in the halfcourt. The problem for the Suns is that Houston has the personnel to disrupt that gameplan. Amen Thompson can guard Booker on the perimeter, and the Rockets have enough rim protection to take away easy baskets at the rim.
I keep coming back to this efficiency gap. Houston is at home, where they’ve been dominant, and Phoenix is on the road, where they’ve been mediocre. The Suns are without Allen, who was their third-leading scorer, and they’re coming off an emotional win that required a game-winner from Booker. That’s a tough spot, and when you do the math over 96 possessions, Houston’s depth and pace should create enough separation to cover this number.
The Rockets will also benefit from the total being set at 224.0. That suggests the market expects a relatively high-scoring game, which plays into Houston’s hands. They want to push tempo, get out in transition, and force Phoenix to play faster than they’re comfortable. The Suns don’t have the depth to match Houston’s rotations, and that gap widens as the game goes on.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m laying the 8 points with Houston. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests, but I still think the Rockets have enough at home to cover. Durant and Thompson give Houston two elite two-way players, and Phoenix doesn’t have the depth or defensive versatility to keep this close late.
The main risk here is Booker going nuclear and dragging the Suns to a cover, but even then, I like Houston’s ability to generate efficient offense and control pace. The Rockets are 10-2 at home for a reason, and this is exactly the kind of game where that home-court advantage shows up in the final margin.
The Play: Rockets -8.0 (2 units)
I’ve accounted for the Sengun absence, and it still doesn’t get there. Houston’s depth and pace win this one by double digits.
