The Thunder visit Memphis as 4.5-point favorites, and with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren ruled out, our ATS pick evaluates if Jalen Williams can lead a shorthanded OKC squad to victory.
The Setup: Thunder at Grizzlies
The Thunder are laying 4.5 points on the road at FedExForum, and on the surface, this number makes sense. Oklahoma City sits at 31-7, ranked first in the Western Conference, while Memphis limps into this one at 16-21 and tenth in the West. But here’s the thing — this isn’t just about record differential. The Grizzlies are without Ja Morant for the fourth consecutive game, and when you strip away their primary offensive engine averaging 19.0 points and 7.6 assists per game, you’re asking a lot from a team that’s already been inconsistent at home with an 8-10 record at FedExForum.
Let me walk you through why this line exists and why I think it’s actually undervaluing what Oklahoma City brings to the table. The Thunder just snapped a two-game skid with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander dropping 46 points in an overtime win against Utah. They’re motivated, they’re deep, and even with some injury concerns of their own, they match up exceptionally well against a Memphis squad that’s struggling to find offensive rhythm without their floor general. My thesis is simple: the Thunder’s elite perimeter defense and superior depth should control this game more decisively than 4.5 points suggests.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: January 9, 2026, 8:00 ET
Venue: FedExForum
Current Spread: Thunder -4.5 (-110) / Grizzlies +4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Thunder -192 / Grizzlies +155
Total: 229.0 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market landed on Thunder -4.5 because oddsmakers are giving Memphis credit for playing at home and accounting for Oklahoma City’s injury situation with Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren both out. Alex Caruso is questionable with back soreness, adding some uncertainty to OKC’s perimeter rotation. On paper, that’s enough to keep this number under a full touchdown.
But once you dig into the matchup data, the line starts to look generous to Memphis. The Thunder are 13-4 on the road this season — that’s an elite road winning percentage that suggests they don’t give back much in hostile environments. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies’ 8-10 home record tells you FedExForum hasn’t been a fortress this year. When you factor in that Ja Morant is out, removing the player who orchestrates their entire offensive system, you’re left with a Memphis team that’s relying heavily on Jaren Jackson Jr. (18.5 PPG) and Santi Aldama (13.9 PPG) to generate offense against one of the league’s best defenses.
The total sitting at 229.0 is interesting too. That’s a relatively high number for a game where one team is missing its primary ball-handler and playmaker. The market is banking on Oklahoma City’s pace and offensive firepower to carry scoring, but I’m not convinced Memphis has the offensive weapons to keep up their end of that bargain without Morant.
Thunder Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Oklahoma City’s identity is built around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and he just reminded everyone why he’s an MVP candidate with that 46-point performance against Utah. He’s averaging 31.9 points, 6.4 assists, and 4.5 rebounds per game this season, and he’s the kind of player who can completely take over a game in crunch time — exactly what he did hitting that regulation buzzer-beater to force overtime.
The concern here is depth, particularly in the frontcourt. With Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein both out, the Thunder are thin at center. That could mean more minutes for Jalen Williams (17.2 PPG, 5.5 APG) at the five, which opens up rotation opportunities for Aaron Wiggins and Kenrich Williams. Here’s the thing — even with those absences, Oklahoma City has the perimeter talent to exploit Memphis. Jalen Williams is versatile enough to handle multiple positions, and if Caruso plays through his back soreness, the Thunder’s perimeter defense remains elite.
The real advantage Oklahoma City has is their ability to control pace and generate efficient offense without relying on one player. Even when SGA isn’t scoring 46, they have multiple creators who can attack mismatches. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts in their favor when Memphis is missing the guy who dictates everything for them offensively.
Grizzlies Breakdown: The Other Side
Memphis is in a tough spot. Ja Morant has been out for four straight games, and the fact he’s being ruled out 24 hours in advance tells you he’s not close to returning. That puts enormous pressure on Jaren Jackson Jr. and Santi Aldama to carry the offensive load. Jackson is averaging 18.5 points and 5.6 rebounds, while Aldama chips in 13.9 points and 6.7 rebounds. Those are solid numbers, but neither player is a primary ball-handler or playmaker in the way Morant is.
John Konchar remains doubtful after thumb surgery, and both Cedric Coward and Vince Williams are questionable, which could further deplete Memphis’ rotation depth. If those guys can’t go, you’re looking at extended minutes for Cam Spencer and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but it does mean less experienced players are being asked to handle significant responsibilities against the top team in the West.
The Grizzlies’ 8-10 home record is concerning because it suggests they haven’t been able to protect their home court consistently even when healthier. Their recent loss to Phoenix — a 117-98 blowout where former Grizzly Dillon Brooks scored 21 against them — exposed how vulnerable they can be when their offense stalls. Without Morant to create easy looks in transition and half-court sets, Memphis becomes much more predictable and easier to defend.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
I keep coming back to this efficiency gap. Oklahoma City has the personnel to pressure Memphis’ ball-handlers and force them into uncomfortable half-court possessions. Without Morant’s speed and playmaking to break down the defense, the Grizzlies are going to struggle to generate clean looks against OKC’s length and defensive discipline.
The Thunder’s frontcourt injuries are a legitimate concern, but here’s what matters: Memphis doesn’t have a dominant interior presence that can truly exploit that weakness. Jackson is more of a perimeter-oriented big who can stretch the floor, but he’s not going to punish smaller lineups in the post possession after possession. That means Oklahoma City can get away with unconventional lineups and still maintain defensive integrity.
On the offensive end, the Thunder have too many weapons. Gilgeous-Alexander will get his, but Jalen Williams can create off the dribble, and if Caruso plays, he adds another layer of perimeter shooting and playmaking. When you do the math over 95-100 possessions, Oklahoma City should be able to generate more efficient offense than Memphis can match. The Grizzlies will have stretches where Jackson gets hot or Aldama makes plays, but sustaining that for 48 minutes without a true floor general is asking a lot.
This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests in Memphis’ favor — but it actually widens it in Oklahoma City’s favor. The Thunder’s ability to control tempo, defend multiple positions, and generate efficient offense should result in a more comfortable win than 4.5 points indicates.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Thunder -4.5 (-110) — 2 Units
I’ve accounted for the home court, the injury concerns for Oklahoma City, and the fact Memphis will compete hard in front of their fans. And it still doesn’t get there for the Grizzlies. Without Ja Morant, Memphis simply doesn’t have the offensive firepower or playmaking to keep this game within a single possession down the stretch.
The Thunder are 13-4 on the road for a reason — they don’t beat themselves in hostile environments, and they have the star power in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to close games. The main risk here is Oklahoma City’s frontcourt depth getting exploited, but Memphis doesn’t have the personnel to consistently attack that weakness. If Caruso plays, that’s a bonus for OKC’s perimeter defense and ball movement.
This line should be closer to 6 or 6.5 based on the talent differential and Memphis’ struggles without their primary playmaker. I’m laying the points with confidence. Thunder cover on the road.
