Anthony Edwards is coming off a historic 55-point performance, yet the Timberwolves find themselves on a two-game losing streak. As they travel to the Delta Center to face a Jazz team missing Walker Kessler, we analyze if Minnesota’s interior advantage makes them the sharpest ATS pick on the board.
The Setup: Timberwolves at Jazz
Minnesota is laying 11 points on the road in Salt Lake City, and that’s a significant number against a Jazz team that’s won nine of their 21 home games. The Timberwolves sit at 27-16 with Anthony Edwards coming off a season-high 55 points in a losing effort against San Antonio, while Utah limps in at 14-29 and without their starting center for the season. The market is telling you this is a talent mismatch, but road favorites giving double digits need to justify every point of that spread through efficiency, pace, and matchup advantages. Minnesota’s 12-10 road record suggests they’re not invincible away from home, and Utah’s 9-12 home mark means they’ve shown up at the Delta Center often enough to make this interesting.
The question isn’t whether Minnesota is better. They clearly are. The question is whether they’re 11 points better on the road against a team that can score with Lauri Markkanen and Keyonte George both averaging over 24 points per game this season.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: January 20, 2026, 9:00 ET
Venue: Delta Center
TV: Home: KJZZ-TV, Jazz+ | Away: FanDuel SN North Extra, NBA League Pass
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Timberwolves -11.0 (-110) | Jazz +11.0 (-110)
- Moneyline: Timberwolves -556 | Jazz +394
- Total: 244.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The 11-point spread reflects three realities: Minnesota’s talent advantage, Utah’s season-ending loss of Walker Kessler, and the Timberwolves’ position as the fourth seed in the Western Conference against the 13th-place Jazz. Edwards averaging 29.6 points per game alongside Julius Randle’s 22.5 PPG gives Minnesota two legitimate scoring threats that should overwhelm a Utah defense that’s already surrendered its rim protection.
Kessler’s absence is massive. He was averaging 14.4 points and 10.8 rebounds before going down for the season, and losing that interior presence fundamentally changes how Utah defends. The Jazz don’t have another player on the roster who can protect the rim or control the glass at that level, which means Minnesota’s penetration game should generate cleaner looks at the basket and more second-chance opportunities.
The 244.5 total accounts for both teams having legitimate offensive firepower. Markkanen at 27.9 PPG and George at 24.0 PPG means Utah can score even in losses. Minnesota counters with three players averaging double figures, led by Edwards’ near-30 per night. The market expects possessions and points, but whether we get 250 or 240 depends on pace and defensive effort from a Jazz team that has little incentive to grind.
Timberwolves Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Minnesota just watched Edwards drop 55 points in a loss to San Antonio, which tells you two things: Edwards is in elite form, and the supporting cast couldn’t finish the job. Randle’s 22.5 points and 7.1 rebounds per game gives them a second option, while Jaden McDaniels at 15.0 PPG provides a third scoring threat who can also defend multiple positions.
The concern is Naz Reid’s questionable status with a left shoulder injury. Reid provides crucial bench scoring and frontcourt depth, and if he sits, Minnesota’s rotation gets thinner against a Jazz team that will push pace and hunt mismatches. The Timberwolves are 12-10 on the road this season, which means they’re not automatic away from home. That road record suggests they’ve had trouble closing games or maintaining intensity in hostile environments.
Minnesota’s defensive identity should dominate this matchup. Without Kessler protecting the rim, the Wolves can attack the paint with Edwards and Randle, generating either layups or kickouts to shooters when Utah’s defense collapses. The question is whether they execute for 48 minutes or let Utah hang around with transition buckets and three-point variance.
Jazz Breakdown: The Other Side
Utah’s 14-29 record reflects a team in evaluation mode, but Markkanen and George are both having career-level seasons. Markkanen’s 27.9 PPG leads the team, and he’s shooting efficiently from all three levels. George at 24.0 points and 6.8 assists gives them a playmaking guard who can score in bunches and set up teammates.
The problem is everything else. Kessler’s season-ending injury destroyed their interior defense and rebounding. Georges Niang remains doubtful with a foot injury, which removes another veteran presence. Elijah Harkless is questionable and has played meaningful minutes just three times this season. The Jazz are essentially running a seven-man rotation with no rim protection and limited defensive versatility.
Utah’s 9-12 home record shows they’re competitive at the Delta Center, but their 5-17 road mark reveals how much they rely on home cooking to stay in games. Against Minnesota’s talent and defensive length, the Jazz need Markkanen and George to combine for 55-plus points and hope the Timberwolves have an off shooting night. That’s not a sustainable formula against a top-four Western Conference team.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the paint and on the glass. Without Kessler, Utah has no answer for Minnesota’s interior attack. Edwards can get to the rim at will, Randle can bully smaller defenders in the post, and McDaniels provides cutting and offensive rebounding. The Timberwolves should generate high-percentage looks all night, and if they convert at even an average rate, they’ll pull away.
The pace will favor Utah. The Jazz want to run and create transition opportunities before Minnesota’s defense gets set. George’s playmaking in the open court and Markkanen’s ability to fill lanes as a stretch big give them weapons in transition. If Utah can push the tempo to 100-plus possessions, they’ll generate enough scoring chances to keep this competitive.
Minnesota’s defensive versatility should neutralize Utah’s two-man game. The Wolves can switch McDaniels onto Markkanen and use their length to contest George’s drives. Without Kessler as a lob threat or offensive rebounder, Utah’s half-court offense becomes more predictable. The Jazz will need to shoot well from three to compensate for their size disadvantage, and that’s variance you can’t count on.
The spread comes down to whether Minnesota maintains focus for four quarters. At 11 points, the Timberwolves need to win by double digits on the road against a team that can score. Edwards just dropped 55 in a loss, which means he’s locked in. If Randle provides his usual 20-plus and the defense controls the paint, Minnesota wins by 15. If they coast or let Utah get hot from three, this lands in the 8-10 point range.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking Utah +11 at home. Minnesota is the better team, but this number asks them to dominate on the road without their full rotation if Reid sits. Edwards will get his 30, but the supporting cast just couldn’t close against San Antonio. Utah’s offensive firepower with Markkanen and George averaging over 50 combined points per game means they’ll score enough to stay within the number.
The Jazz are 9-12 at home, which means they’ve shown they can compete at the Delta Center. Kessler’s absence hurts their defense, but it also removes a slow-paced element from their offense. Utah will push tempo, hunt threes, and force Minnesota to execute in transition defense. That creates possessions and variance, which helps underdogs.
The risk is Minnesota’s defensive length overwhelming a thin Jazz rotation. If the Wolves get stops and run out to a 20-point lead by halftime, this becomes a laugher. But that road record suggests they don’t always bring that intensity away from home, and Edwards just played heavy minutes against San Antonio. Give me the points with a team that can score.
BASH’S BEST BET: Utah Jazz +11.0 for 2 units.
