Don’t take the bait! The 11.5-point line is a trap. Bryan Bash reveals his high-confidence prediction and the true best bet for this NBA showdown.
The Setup: Timberwolves at Pelicans
Minnesota laying 11.5 points at the Smoothie King Center against a New Orleans squad that’s 3-19 and falling apart faster than a cheap suit? The books are begging you to take the Wolves and lay the points. I’ve seen this movie before, and it usually ends with the favorite sleepwalking through three quarters before realizing they’re in a dogfight. The Pelicans just watched Anthony Edwards drop 44 points on them in an overtime thriller that ended 149-142, and now Vegas wants us to believe Minnesota’s going to come back and blow them out? The market’s disrespecting the Timberwolves here by making this number too tempting. When a line looks this obvious, that’s exactly when you need to pump the brakes and dig deeper.
Edwards is averaging 29.8 PPG this season and Julius Randle is putting up 22.7 PPG with 7.4 RPG, giving Minnesota a legitimate one-two punch that should dominate a Pelicans defense that’s been Swiss cheese all season. But here’s the thing—New Orleans just hung 142 points on this same Wolves team, and they’re getting nearly two touchdowns at home. That’s a lot of cushion for a team that’s shown they can score when Zion Williamson (22.1 PPG) and Trey Murphy III (20.4 PPG) get rolling. The real question isn’t whether Minnesota wins—it’s whether they cover this inflated number in a revenge spot where they might be looking ahead.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Minnesota Timberwolves (13-8) at New Orleans Pelicans (3-19)
Date: December 4, 2025
Time: 8:00 ET
Venue: Smoothie King Center
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
Spread: Timberwolves -11.5 (-110) | Pelicans +11.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Timberwolves -588 | Pelicans +413
Total: Over/Under 233.0 (-110)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Vegas knows something we don’t, but I’m not buying it. This number screams trap, and here’s why: the Timberwolves are 13-8 overall but just 6-5 on the road, while the Pelicans are a dumpster fire at 2-10 at home. The oddsmakers are banking on the public seeing that massive record disparity and hammering Minnesota to cover double digits. But look at what just happened—these teams played to a 149-142 overtime game where Edwards needed a superhuman effort to drag his team to victory. That’s not the profile of a team ready to come back and dominate by 12-plus points.
The total sitting at 233.0 tells you everything about how Vegas expects this game to play out. They’re anticipating another shootout, not a methodical beatdown. When you’ve got a total this high and a spread this wide, you’re looking at a market that’s conflicted. The books want you to think Minnesota’s going to run away with this, but they’re also pricing in enough offense from New Orleans to push that total into the stratosphere. That’s cognitive dissonance, and it’s exactly the spot where the favorite burns you.
The -588 moneyline on Minnesota is laying wood that nobody in their right mind should touch, which means the real action is on the spread. The Pelicans are sitting at +413 on the moneyline, which is basically Vegas saying they’ve got a puncher’s chance but nothing more. But here’s the kicker—Herbert Jones and Jordan Poole are both OUT for New Orleans, which should theoretically make this number even wider. The fact that it’s sitting at 11.5 suggests the market is already baking in some resistance from the Wolves to cover. Sharp money knows what’s up here, and they’re not rushing to lay double digits on a road favorite in a revenge spot.
Timberwolves Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Minnesota’s 13-8 record has them sitting at 6th in the Western Conference, and they’ve been getting it done with elite two-way talent. Anthony Edwards is having a monster season at 29.8 PPG, and his 44-point explosion in the last meeting showed he can take over games when needed. Julius Randle has been the perfect complement, averaging 22.7 PPG, 7.4 RPG, and 6.0 APG, giving the Wolves a legitimate playmaking big who can punish mismatches. Jaden McDaniels rounds out the top three at 15.6 PPG, providing secondary scoring and defensive versatility.
The problem? This team is 6-5 on the road, which means they’re not exactly world-beaters away from home. They just played an emotional overtime game against this same Pelicans squad, and now they’re being asked to come back and dominate. That’s a tough ask, especially when you consider the letdown factor. Edwards played 42 minutes in that overtime thriller and had to expend massive energy to force the extra period. Is he going to have that same juice on short rest? I’m not convinced.
The Timberwolves have the talent to win this game comfortably, but covering 11.5 requires a different level of execution. They need to defend consistently, control the glass, and avoid the back-and-forth shootout that nearly cost them last time. If this turns into another track meet with possessions flying and both teams trading buckets, that spread becomes a major problem. Minnesota’s at their best when they can impose their will defensively and get out in transition, but New Orleans has shown they can score in bunches even without their full complement of players.
Pelicans Breakdown: The Other Side
New Orleans is a disaster at 3-19, sitting dead last in the Western Conference at 15th. They’re 2-10 at home and 1-9 on the road, which means there’s nowhere to hide for this squad. But here’s the thing—they just pushed the Timberwolves to overtime and scored 142 points in the process. Zion Williamson is averaging 22.1 PPG with 5.6 RPG, and when he’s engaged, he’s one of the most unstoppable forces in the paint. Trey Murphy III has been a revelation at 20.4 PPG with 6.6 RPG, giving the Pelicans a legitimate second option who can stretch the floor.
The injury situation is brutal, though. Herbert Jones is OUT with a calf injury, robbing them of their best perimeter defender. Jordan Poole is OUT with a quad issue, taking away 17.3 PPG and another ball-handler who can create offense. Karlo Matkovic is questionable, but he’s not a major factor either way. This is a depleted roster that’s been running on fumes for weeks, and it shows in their record.
But here’s what the Pelicans have going for them: they’ve got nothing to lose. They’re playing at home, they just hung with Minnesota for 53 minutes, and they know they can score against this defense. Zion and Murphy can get buckets in bunches, and if they catch Minnesota napping early, this game could stay competitive deep into the fourth quarter. The Pelicans aren’t winning this game straight up, but do they need to? At +11.5, they just need to keep it within two possessions in the final minutes, and suddenly that spread is looking mighty generous.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the margins, and that’s where the Timberwolves should have the edge. Minnesota is 7-3 at home but 6-5 on the road, showing they’re mortal away from their building. New Orleans is 2-10 at home, but they just proved they can score against this Wolves defense. The last meeting saw a combined 291 points in regulation and overtime, which is exactly why the total is sitting at 233.0. Both teams can light it up when they get rolling.
The pace is going to be critical here. If Minnesota can slow this down and grind possessions, they’ll cover easily. But if New Orleans pushes tempo and turns this into a track meet, suddenly that 11.5-point cushion starts looking shaky. The Pelicans need to attack the paint with Zion and force Minnesota’s bigs into foul trouble. If they can get Randle or Rudy Gobert in foul trouble early, the entire complexion of this game changes.
The three-point line will be another battleground. Murphy is a legitimate threat from deep, and if he gets hot, the Pelicans can stay within striking distance. Minnesota needs to defend the perimeter without giving up easy drives, which is easier said than done against Zion. The Timberwolves also need to take care of the basketball—turnovers lead to transition opportunities, and that’s where New Orleans can pile up points in a hurry.
The revenge narrative is real, but it cuts both ways. Minnesota wants payback for nearly blowing that last game, but New Orleans is pissed about losing in overtime at home. The Pelicans have pride, and at some point, even a 3-19 team is going to show up and compete. Is tonight that night? With 11.5 points to play with, they don’t need to win—they just need to stay close enough to make this interesting down the stretch.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m not laying 11.5 points with a road favorite in a revenge spot after an emotional overtime game. This is exactly the spot where Minnesota burns you. They’ll come out flat, let New Orleans hang around, and suddenly you’re sweating the back door cover in the final two minutes. The Pelicans are banged up and undermanned, but they just proved they can score against this defense. Give me New Orleans +11.5 and let’s ride the home dog with nothing to lose.
The Play: Pelicans +11.5 (-110)
Confidence Level: 3 Units
The market’s disrespecting the Pelicans here by assuming Minnesota’s going to waltz in and dominate. I’ve seen this movie before, and it doesn’t end well for the chalk. New Orleans keeps this within single digits, and we cash the ticket with room to spare. I’m hammering this number before it moves, because sharp money knows what’s up here—this spread is a gift, and I’m not looking it in the mouth.
