Are the 3-18 Pelicans really worth a double-digit cushion at home? The market’s not fooling around—Minnesota is set to roll. Lock in Bryan Bash’s high-confidence ATS pick now!
The Setup: Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans
The Timberwolves are laying 10 points against a Pelicans squad that’s 3-18 on the season and 2-9 at home in the Smoothie King Center. I’ve seen this movie before, and it usually ends with a blowout that makes you wonder why you didn’t bet the mortgage. Minnesota’s sitting at 12-8 with Anthony Edwards dropping 28.9 points per game and Julius Randle adding 23.0 PPG with 7.5 rebounds and 6.0 assists. The Wolves just steamrolled San Antonio 125-112 with Edwards becoming their all-time leader in 30-point games. Meanwhile, New Orleans is coming off getting torched by the Lakers 133-121, and they’re barely keeping their heads above water at the bottom of the Western Conference at 15th place. The market’s not disrespecting anyone here—this spread is telling you exactly what’s going to happen, and the only question is whether the Wolves can cover that double-digit number on the road where they’re 5-5 this season.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 2, 2025, 8:00 ET
Venue: Smoothie King Center
Spread: Minnesota Timberwolves -10.0 (-110) | New Orleans Pelicans +10.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Timberwolves -531 | Pelicans +384
Total: Over/Under 235.0 (-110)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Look, the books aren’t trying to be cute here. They’re putting up a 10-point spread because that’s exactly what the talent differential suggests. Minnesota’s 6th in the Western Conference while New Orleans is drowning at 15th with a putrid 3-18 record. That -531 moneyline on the Wolves tells you everything you need to know about how lopsided this matchup is. The books are begging you to take the Pelicans plus the points, hoping you’ll fall in love with that home underdog narrative. But here’s the reality: New Orleans is 2-9 at home and 1-9 on the road—they’re losing everywhere. The Pelicans have Trey Murphy III questionable with an elbow issue, and he’s their second-leading scorer at 19.7 PPG. Jordan Hawkins is questionable with illness too. When you’re already the worst team in the conference and you might be down two rotation pieces against a Wolves squad that just put up 125 on San Antonio, that 10-point spread starts looking generous to New Orleans, not Minnesota. The total sitting at 235.0 suggests the oddsmakers expect a relatively high-scoring affair, which makes sense when you’ve got Edwards and Randle going against a Pelicans defense that’s given up 133 to the Lakers in their last outing.
Minnesota Timberwolves Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Timberwolves are rolling with legitimate firepower. Anthony Edwards is putting up 28.9 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game, and he just dropped 32 in that San Antonio win while making history as Minnesota’s all-time leader in 30-point games. That’s not a fluke—that’s a superstar in his prime. Julius Randle is giving them 23.0 PPG, 7.5 RPG, and 6.0 APG, which is borderline All-Star production as a second option. He had 22 points and 12 assists against the Spurs, showing he can facilitate when defenses key on Edwards. Jaden McDaniels adds another 15.5 PPG to give them three legitimate scoring threats. The Wolves are 7-3 at home but 5-5 on the road, which is the only concerning split here. They’re not world-beaters away from Target Center, but they’re facing a team that can’t defend their own building. Minnesota’s got the talent, the momentum coming off a 13-point win, and the motivation to keep pace in a crowded Western Conference playoff race.
New Orleans Pelicans Breakdown: The Other Side
This is exactly the spot where New Orleans burns you if you’re thinking about a backdoor cover. The Pelicans are 3-18, which is catastrophic, and they’re doing it with legitimate talent on the roster. Zion Williamson is averaging 22.1 PPG, 5.6 RPG, and 4.0 APG, but one player can’t save a sinking ship. Trey Murphy III at 19.7 PPG and 6.2 RPG gives them a second scoring option, but he’s questionable with that elbow injury. Jordan Poole is chipping in 17.3 PPG, but that’s not enough firepower to hang with Minnesota’s trio. The Pelicans are 2-9 at home, which means the Smoothie King Center isn’t providing any real advantage. They just gave up 133 to the Lakers with Luka Doncic going off for 34 points in a Lakers uniform—wait, that doesn’t sound right, but that’s what the recap says. Regardless, they’re hemorrhaging points and sitting at the bottom of the conference for a reason. With Murphy and Hawkins both questionable, this roster is dangerously thin against a Wolves team that can score from multiple positions.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
Here’s where the rubber meets the road. Minnesota’s 5-5 road record is the only statistical argument for taking New Orleans plus the points, but the Pelicans’ 2-9 home record completely negates that concern. The Wolves have Edwards and Randle both averaging over 20 points per game, while the Pelicans might be without Murphy, who’s their second-leading scorer. The talent gap is massive, and the injury situation makes it even worse for New Orleans. Sharp money knows what’s up here—when you’ve got a 12-8 team laying 10 against a 3-18 squad, you’re not getting a gift, you’re getting exactly what the market says you should get. The question isn’t whether Minnesota wins—they should cruise. The question is whether they can cover that 10-point number on the road. With Edwards averaging nearly 29 per game and Randle facilitating at an elite level with 6 assists per night, the Wolves have the offensive firepower to pull away in the second half. New Orleans doesn’t have the defensive personnel to slow down multiple elite scorers, especially if Murphy can’t go. This sets up as a game where Minnesota builds a lead, New Orleans makes a small run to keep it interesting, and then the Wolves close it out with a 12-15 point victory.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m hammering the Timberwolves -10.0 before this number moves. Yes, Minnesota is 5-5 on the road, but they’re facing a Pelicans team that’s 3-18 overall and might be without Trey Murphy III, their second-best scorer. Edwards is playing at an MVP-caliber level with 28.9 PPG, Randle is giving them 23.0 and 6.0 assists, and New Orleans simply doesn’t have the horses to keep this competitive for 48 minutes. The public’s going to see that 10-point spread and think about the home underdog getting double digits, but this is a trap going the other way. The Pelicans are 2-9 at home—the Smoothie King Center isn’t some fortress. Give me the Wolves to win by 12-15 and make this one a comfortable cover. Confidence level: 4 out of 5 units.I’m taking Minnesota to roll.
