The Memphis Grizzlies host the Portland Trail Blazers this Sunday as razor-thin -1 favorites, but the injury report tells a different story. Bryan Bash breaks down why Ja Morant’s doubtful status flips the value in this matchup and why the books might be baiting the public into a losing wager.
The Setup: Trail Blazers at Grizzlies
Memphis sitting at -1 at BetOnline against a Portland squad that’s actually been better on the road than the Grizzlies have been at home? The books are begging you to take the Grizzlies here, and I’m not buying what they’re selling. Portland comes in at 9-14 but with a 6-8 road record, while Memphis is just 5-6 at FedExForum despite being the “home favorite.” Here’s the kicker – Ja Morant is doubtful with a calf injury, which means the Grizzlies are rolling out a severely depleted roster against a Blazers team led by Deni Avdija who’s averaging 26.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 6.2 assists per game this season. The market’s disrespecting Portland here in a massive way, and sharp money knows what’s up. When you’re getting a near pick’em price on a team that’s been more competitive away from home against a squad missing its best player, you hammer that number before it moves.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Portland Trail Blazers at Memphis Grizzlies
Date & Time: December 7, 2025, 6:00 ET
Venue: FedExForum
Current Odds (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Memphis Grizzlies -1.0 (-110) | Portland Trail Blazers +1.0 (-110)
- Moneyline: Memphis Grizzlies -118 | Portland Trail Blazers -104
- Total: Over 233.5 (-110) | Under 233.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Let me break down exactly what Vegas is doing here. They’re banking on casual bettors seeing “Memphis at home” and assuming it’s an easy cash grab. But look at the actual numbers – this is a one-point spread with essentially even money on both sides of the moneyline. Portland at -104 versus Memphis at -118 tells you everything you need to know about how tight this market really is.
The Grizzlies are 10-13 overall and sitting ninth in the Western Conference, barely ahead of Portland’s tenth-place standing at 9-14. But here’s where it gets interesting: the injury situation completely flips the script. Ja Morant being doubtful isn’t some minor detail – he’s averaging 17.9 points and 7.6 assists per game. Without him, Memphis loses their primary playmaker and offensive engine. Meanwhile, Portland is relatively healthy with only Donovan Clingan questionable, and they’ve got three legitimate scoring threats in Avdija, Shaedon Sharpe (21.3 PPG), and Jerami Grant (19.4 PPG).
The total sitting at 233.5 is also telling. Vegas expects a competitive, relatively high-scoring affair, which makes sense when you consider both teams are hovering around .500 and neither has a significant defensive advantage. This isn’t a spot where Memphis blows anyone out – this is exactly the spot where the Grizzlies burn you if you’re laying the point.
Trail Blazers Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Portland’s been a fascinating team this season, and the narrative doesn’t match the reality. Yes, they’re 9-14, but that 6-8 road record is actually respectable when you dig into it. They just lost to Detroit 122-116, but that Pistons team is no joke with Cade Cunningham going off for 29 points. The Blazers hung tough and scored 116 points – they’re not rolling over for anyone.
The offensive firepower is legitimate. Deni Avdija has been a revelation, putting up 26.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 6.2 assists – that’s borderline All-Star production. Shaedon Sharpe adds another 21.3 points per game, and Jerami Grant chips in 19.4 points. That’s three guys who can go get you 20 on any given night, and that kind of scoring depth is exactly what you need in a tight road game.
The injury situation is manageable. Jrue Holiday being out is notable, but wait – that’s outdated information from December 4th. Matisse Thybulle’s thumb injury from December 1st is also in the rearview. The only real question mark is Donovan Clingan being day-to-day with a leg issue, and frankly, the Blazers have been winning games without relying on their rookie center. This roster is built around perimeter scoring and they’ve got all their weapons available.
Grizzlies Breakdown: The Other Side
Memphis is in trouble, and I don’t care what their home record says. They’re 10-13 overall, 5-6 at FedExForum, and now they’re likely without Ja Morant who’s doubtful with a calf injury. They just beat the Clippers 107-98 with rookie Cedric Coward going for 23 points and 14 rebounds, but let’s be real – that was the Clippers, who’ve been inconsistent all season, and it took a career game from a rookie to get it done.
Without Morant, the offensive burden falls on Jaren Jackson Jr. (17.5 PPG, 5.1 RPG) and rookie Zach Edey (13.8 PPG, 11.2 RPG). JJJ is talented but inconsistent, and asking a rookie center to carry you offensively against a team with three 20-point scorers is a recipe for disaster. Cam Spencer and Jaylen Wells both had 17 points against the Clippers, but banking on role players to replicate that performance is fool’s gold.
The depth chart takes another hit with Ty Jerome out for 6-to-9 weeks with a calf injury and Javon Small ruled out for this game with a toe issue. That’s three guards unavailable, which means Memphis is running on fumes in the backcourt. I’ve seen this movie before, and it doesn’t end well for the home favorite laying points with half their rotation missing.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to one simple question: can Memphis generate enough offense without their primary playmaker? The answer is probably not. Morant’s 7.6 assists per game don’t just disappear – someone has to create those shots, and the Grizzlies don’t have another facilitator on the roster who can replicate that production.
Portland’s advantage is clear: they’ve got multiple creators. Avdija can run the offense with his 6.2 assists per game, Sharpe can get his own shot, and Grant is a veteran who knows how to operate in the mid-range. Memphis will counter with Edey’s 11.2 rebounds per game and try to dominate the glass, but the Blazers have enough size and physicality to compete on the boards.
The pace and tempo favor Portland in this spot. With Morant out, Memphis loses their transition game, which means they’ll have to grind out possessions in the halfcourt. That plays right into Portland’s hands – they can match Memphis physically, and they’ve got more offensive versatility to exploit a depleted Grizzlies defense.
Home court means something, but not when you’re this banged up. FedExForum won’t save Memphis from the reality that they’re missing their best player against a team that’s actually been more competitive on the road than the Grizzlies have been at home. The numbers don’t lie: Portland is 6-8 away from home, Memphis is 5-6 at FedExForum. This isn’t the massive home court advantage the line suggests.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m hammering Portland Trail Blazers +1.0 (-110) and I’m not even sweating it. This line should be Portland -2 or -3 with Morant doubtful, but Vegas is banking on casual money flooding in on the home team. That’s exactly when you fade the public and take the value.
Portland’s got three legitimate scorers, they’re healthier, and they’ve actually been better on the road than Memphis has been at home. The Grizzlies are decimated in the backcourt with Morant, Jerome, and Small all unavailable. You’re asking rookies and role players to beat a team with Avdija dropping 26 a night? Not happening.
The Play: Portland Trail Blazers +1.0 (-110) for 2 units
Confidence level: 8/10. This is exactly the spot where the Grizzlies burn you. Vegas knows something we don’t? Maybe. But I’m not buying it. Give me the healthier team with more offensive firepower getting a point on the road. The public’s all over Memphis, which means sharp money is quietly loading up on Portland. I’ll take my chances with Avdija, Sharpe, and Grant over a Grizzlies team running on empty. Lock it in.
