With Portland dealing with injuries and Dallas historically dominating this matchup at home, there’s a sharp angle the market hasn’t fully accounted for. Here’s how the data shapes our Blazers vs Mavericks pick and prediction.
The Setup: Trail Blazers at Mavericks
This line’s a joke. Portland’s favored by 3.5 points against a Dallas team that’s won 7 straight against them? The books are begging you to take the Blazers, and I’m here to tell you why that’s exactly what they want. Dallas is 3-10 on the season, sure, but they’re 6-2 ATS in their last 8 against Portland and 5-0 straight-up at home in this matchup. The market’s disrespecting the Mavericks here, and sharp money knows what’s up.
Portland comes in at 6-6, averaging 120.6 points per game (8th in NBA) but allowing 120.8 points defensively (23rd). Dallas is scoring just 109.2 PPG (27th) and giving up 115.8 PPG (14th). On paper, Portland should cruise. But the books have this total at 234.5 for a reason – this screams shootout, and I’ve seen this movie before with these two squads.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- Date/Time: Sunday, November 16, 2025 at 7:30 PM CT
- Venue: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
- Spread: Portland -3.5 (-110)
- Total: 234.5 (Over/Under -110)
- Moneyline: Portland -150 / Dallas +130
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Let me break down what Vegas is doing here. Portland’s averaging 120.58 PPG with an effective field goal percentage of 53.3%, while Dallas is limping along at 109.23 PPG shooting just 50.6% effective FG. The public sees those numbers and thinks this is easy money on Portland. That’s the trap.
Here’s what the sharp charts show: Dallas is 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games overall, but they’re 6-2 ATS in their last 8 against Portland specifically. They’re also 4-1 ATS at home against the Blazers in their last 5. The total has gone OVER in 5 straight Portland-Dallas matchups – these teams score on each other.
Portland is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games and 0-4-1 ATS on the road in their last 5. Meanwhile, Dallas may be 1-7 SU in their last 8 games, but they covered 4 of those. The market knows Dallas plays Portland tough – historically averaging 127.1 PPG against them versus Portland’s 118.4 PPG in head-to-head meetings.
Portland Trail Blazers Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Blazers are rolling offensively, ranking 8th in scoring at 120.6 PPG and shooting 45.8% from the field. They’re connecting on 13.9 three-pointers per game (9th in NBA) on 41.4 attempts. Deni Avdija is leading the charge with 25.8 PPG, while Shaedon Sharpe adds 20.9 PPG and Jrue Holiday contributes 16.7 PPG with 8.3 assists.
Portland’s grabbing 52.4 rebounds per game (20th) with 14.0 offensive boards (6th), which creates second-chance opportunities. They’re averaging 25.3 assists (23rd) with a 1.535 assist-to-turnover ratio. The pace is there – they’re pushing 17.8 fastbreak points per game (8th) and scoring 53.7 points in the paint (6th).
The problem? They’re coming off a brutal 140-116 loss to Houston where they allowed 50% shooting and committed 20 turnovers. With injuries to Damian Lillard (Achilles, out for season), Scoot Henderson (hamstring), Matisse Thybulle (thumb), and Blake Wesley (foot), the depth chart is tested. The road splits are concerning – they’re 3-4 away from home this season.
Dallas Mavericks Breakdown: The Other Side
Dallas is struggling at 3-10 overall, but don’t let that fool you in this specific matchup. They’re averaging 109.23 PPG but shooting just 44.7% from the field and a brutal 30.0% from three (29th in NBA). Cooper Flagg is putting up 15.2 PPG with 6.6 rebounds as a rookie, while P.J. Washington adds 14.7 PPG and 7.6 rebounds.
The Mavericks dominate the glass with 57.2 total rebounds per game (6th in NBA), including 35.2 defensive boards (4th). They’re blocking 6.1 shots per game (3rd) with a 6.6% block rate. Dallas assists on 61.7% of their made field goals (18th) with 24.1 APG.
Here’s the kicker: Anthony Davis is doubtful after missing 8 straight with a calf strain, and P.J. Washington is probable with a shoulder issue. But Dallas just took the Clippers to double-overtime in a 133-127 loss where D’Angelo Russell scored 28 and Naji Marshall added 28 off the bench. They’re competitive at home.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This comes down to pace and efficiency. Portland’s road offense averages 121.29 PPG (8th) against Dallas’ home defense allowing 116.67 PPG (17th). That’s a favorable matchup for Portland. But flip it: Dallas at home scores 110.33 PPG (28th) against Portland’s road defense allowing 123.43 PPG (25th). The Blazers can’t stop anyone on the road.
Rebounding edge goes to Dallas – they’re averaging 45.33 boards at home (9th) versus Portland allowing 45.00 on the road (18th). That’s essentially even. The shooting percentages tell the real story: Portland shoots 48.8% against opponents (26th defensively) while Dallas shoots 46.0% against opponents (10th defensively).
Head-to-head history is brutal for Portland: they’re 3-7 straight-up and 4-6 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The total went OVER in 9 of 10 matchups, with an average combined score of 245.5 points. In their last meeting on January 9, 2025, Dallas won 117-111 at home.
Portland’s averaging 16.5 turnovers per game (26th) compared to Dallas’ 14.5 (19th). The Blazers turn it over more and can’t defend – that’s a recipe for keeping this game close. Dallas forces 8.8 steals per game at a 7.4% rate, and Portland coughs it up at a 13.6% clip.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m hammering this number before it moves: BASH’S BEST BET: DALLAS +3.5 (-110) and I’m sprinkling the OVER 234.5.
Here’s why: Dallas is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 against Portland and 4-1 ATS at home in this matchup. They’ve won 7 straight head-to-head meetings at American Airlines Center, and the Blazers are a pathetic 0-4-1 ATS on the road in their last 5. Portland can’t defend (allowing 120.8 PPG) and Dallas rebounds the hell out of the ball (57.2 RPG, 6th in NBA).
The market’s screaming OVER too – 9 of the last 10 meetings cleared the total, averaging 245.5 combined points. These teams score 234.5 in their sleep when they play each other. Load up on Dallas +3.5 and take the OVER 234.5 before this line shifts. The writing’s on the wall with this matchup – Dallas keeps it close and both teams light it up.
Dallas Mavericks +3.5 (-110) – 2 Units
OVER 234.5 (-110) – 1.5 Units
The books want you on Portland, which is exactly why I’m fading the public and backing the home dog with the proven track record. This is exactly the spot where the Blazers burn you. Let’s cash.
