The Portland Trail Blazers head to the Smoothie King Center on Jan 2 as slight favorites against a struggling Pelicans squad. Our expert analysis explores why the best bet hinges on Deni Avdija’s playmaking and New Orleans’ defensive absences.
The Setup: Portland at New Orleans
The Trail Blazers head into the Smoothie King Center on Thursday night as slight favorites in what might be the most telling game about where both franchises actually stand right now. Portland sits at 14-20, which looks rough until you compare it to New Orleans at 8-27. Yet here we are with Portland laying just a single point on the road, and I get why that number exists — but once you dig into the matchup data and what’s actually happening with these rosters, this line tells a story about market perception versus reality.
Here’s the thing: the Pelicans are 6-15 at home, which is historically bad for a team that’s supposed to have talent. Portland is 7-11 on the road, which isn’t great but shows they can compete away from home. The betting market is essentially calling this a coin flip, and my thesis is simple — the Blazers have more reliable scoring options available right now, and in a game between two teams struggling to defend consistently, that matters more than the home court advantage everyone’s baking into this number.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: January 2, 2026, 8:00 ET
Location: Smoothie King Center
Spread: Portland Trail Blazers -1.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Portland -115 / New Orleans -106
Total: 244.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
Let me walk you through why this line exists at Portland -1. The market is respecting New Orleans’ home court while simultaneously acknowledging they’ve been one of the worst teams in basketball this season. That 8-27 record isn’t a fluke — this team has been ravaged by injuries and inconsistency all year. Portland at 14-20 isn’t exactly inspiring confidence either, but they’re six games better in the standings for a reason.
The key here is that Portland is getting Jerami Grant ruled out with an Achilles issue, which removes 20.0 points per game from their rotation. That’s significant, and it’s exactly why this line isn’t Portland -3 or -4. The market is adjusting for that loss of firepower. But here’s what I keep coming back to: Portland still has Deni Avdija averaging 25.3 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 6.9 assists — he’s been their most complete player this season. They’ve also got Shaedon Sharpe at 21.8 points per game, giving them a legitimate 1-2 punch that can score in volume.
New Orleans counters with Zion Williamson at 22.7 points per game, Trey Murphy III at 20.5, and Jordan Poole at 17.3. On paper, that’s three capable scorers. But the Pelicans are also dealing with Herbert Jones being ruled out, and he’s their best perimeter defender. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts. When you’re already 8-27 and you lose your defensive anchor against a team with two guards who can create their own shot, the margin for error shrinks fast.
Portland Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Trail Blazers are 7-11 on the road, which tells me they’re competitive but not dominant away from home. Without Grant in the lineup, they’ll lean heavily on Avdija and Sharpe to carry the offensive load. Avdija’s versatility is the key here — 6.9 assists per game means he’s not just scoring, he’s facilitating and creating opportunities for others. That playmaking becomes even more critical when you lose a 20-point scorer.
Sharpe gives them a secondary scoring threat who can get hot from the perimeter, averaging 21.8 points on what’s been an efficient season for him. The concern with Portland is always defense and consistency. They’re sitting 10th in the Western Conference for a reason — they can score enough to hang with most teams, but they give up points in bunches when rotations break down.
The other factor working in Portland’s favor is health. Beyond Grant being out, they’re relatively intact. Matisse Thybulle is dealing with knee and thumb issues, but he’s not a primary rotation player. Jrue Holiday is progressing through on-court activities but remains out. The core pieces they need to win this game are available, and against a Pelicans team that’s been decimated by injuries all season, that roster stability matters.
New Orleans Breakdown: The Other Side
New Orleans is in a brutal spot. That 8-27 record is the second-worst in the conference, and their 6-15 home record tells you the Smoothie King Center hasn’t been any kind of fortress this season. They just lost to Chicago 134-118 in a game where they gave up efficient scoring to a Bulls team that’s also dealing with injuries. When you’re allowing 134 points to a depleted roster, that’s a systemic defensive problem.
Offensively, they have talent. Zion at 22.7 points and 5.8 rebounds is still a force when he’s engaged, and Trey Murphy III at 20.5 points and 6.1 boards gives them a legitimate two-way wing. Jordan Poole adds 17.3 points of secondary scoring, which should be enough firepower to keep pace in a game with a 244.5 total.
But here’s where it falls apart: Herbert Jones is out, and he’s the guy who would’ve been tasked with slowing down Avdija or Sharpe. Without him, the Pelicans are asking Saddiq Bey (questionable with a hip issue) or other role players to handle primary defensive assignments against Portland’s best scorers. That matchup advantage tilts heavily toward the Blazers, and when you do that math over 96 possessions, those small edges compound into real point differentials.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided on the perimeter and in transition. Both teams have shown they can score — that 244.5 total suggests the market expects points, and I agree. The question is which team can get enough stops to create separation, and I trust Portland’s ability to execute in crunch time more than New Orleans right now.
Portland’s advantage is simple: Avdija and Sharpe are both capable of creating their own shot and collapsing defenses. Without Herbert Jones protecting the rim and rotating on drives, New Orleans will struggle to contain penetration. Once you dig into the matchup data, Portland’s guards should generate quality looks consistently throughout this game. Avdija’s 6.9 assists per game become even more valuable when defenses have to account for Sharpe’s shooting and cutting.
New Orleans will try to counter by getting Zion downhill and leveraging Murphy’s shooting from the perimeter. But their defensive issues are glaring. They’re coming off a game where Chicago scored 134, and the Bulls had Isaac Okoro going for a season-high 24 points. When role players are having career nights against you, that’s a red flag about defensive intensity and scheme.
The main risk here is Portland’s road inconsistency. They’re 7-11 away from home, and without Grant, they lose a veteran presence who can stabilize possessions. If Avdija or Sharpe have an off shooting night, Portland doesn’t have the depth to overcome that. But I keep coming back to this efficiency gap — New Orleans is 8-27 because they can’t defend consistently, and Portland has the perimeter weapons to exploit that weakness over and over.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Portland Trail Blazers -1.0 (-110) | 2 Units
I’m laying the point with Portland here. On the surface, this number makes sense — the market is respecting New Orleans’ home court and Portland’s loss of Grant. But once you factor in that Herbert Jones is out for the Pelicans and Portland still has Avdija and Sharpe healthy and producing at elite levels, that single point feels like value.
New Orleans is 6-15 at home and just gave up 134 to Chicago. Portland is 7-11 on the road but has shown they can compete in hostile environments. I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there. The Blazers have more reliable scoring options available right now, and against a Pelicans defense that’s been getting torched by perimeter players all season, I trust Portland to find enough offense to win this game by a field goal or more.
The main risk is Portland’s tendency to play down to competition and their road inconsistency. If they come out flat or Avdija struggles to facilitate without Grant spacing the floor, New Orleans can steal this game. But at -1, I’m getting the better team at essentially a pick’em price. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests — but it narrows it in Portland’s favor. Give me the Blazers to cover the short number and get a much-needed road win.
