New Orleans may be sitting dead last in the West, but their recent 132-point offensive explosion against San Antonio suggests there is still life in this roster. With Portland coming off a 23-point blowout loss to Memphis, the dynamics of this game are trickier than the standings suggest. Our expert analysis dives into the pace, efficiency metrics, and “fishy” point spread to deliver a sharp ATS pick for Thursday night.
The Setup: Trail Blazers at Pelicans
Portland laying 4.5 points in New Orleans against a Pelicans squad that’s won exactly three games all season? The books are begging you to take the Blazers here, and I’m not buying what they’re selling. Look, I get it—New Orleans is a dumpster fire at 3-22, sitting dead last in the West at 15th in the conference. But when a team is THIS bad and still only getting 4.5 points at home, Vegas knows something we don’t. Portland’s 9-15 record isn’t exactly inspiring confidence either, and this smells like a classic trap game where the public hammers the road favorite and gets burned. The Pelicans are 2-12 at home, sure, but the Blazers are just 3-6 on their home floor and 6-9 on the road. Sharp money knows what’s up here—this number should be closer to 7 or 8 if Portland was truly the play. The market’s disrespecting the home dog, and that’s exactly where I want to be.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 11, 2025, 8:00 ET
Location: Smoothie King Center
Spread: Portland Trail Blazers -4.5 (-110) | New Orleans Pelicans +4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Portland -187 | New Orleans +150
Total: Over/Under 240.0 (-110)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Let’s break down why this number sits at 4.5 and not higher. The public sees New Orleans at 3-22 and thinks it’s free money to lay less than a touchdown with a Portland team that’s actually won some games. But here’s what the market is telling us: Portland’s 9-15 record includes a better road performance (6-9) than their home splits (3-6), which is bizarre for most NBA teams. The Blazers just got absolutely demolished by Memphis, losing 119-96 in a game that wasn’t even that close. Meanwhile, New Orleans just lost a heartbreaker to San Antonio 135-132 after blowing a 20-point halftime lead—but they scored 132 points and showed offensive life.
The total sitting at 240.0 is the real tell here. Vegas isn’t worried about a defensive slugfest—they’re expecting points. Both teams can score when they want to, but neither can stop anyone. The Pelicans might be terrible, but they’re not getting blown out by 15+ every night. This 4.5-point spread suggests a competitive game, and when you’re getting points with a desperate home team against a mediocre road favorite coming off a blowout loss, that’s value. The moneyline at +150 for New Orleans is practically screaming at you—if you believe they can win straight up, that’s a 2.5-unit payout on a one-unit risk. I’ve seen this movie before, and it doesn’t end well for the chalk.
Trail Blazers Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Portland’s got some offensive firepower with Deni Avdija leading the way at 25.8 PPG, 7.2 RPG, and 6.3 APG—those are legitimate all-around numbers. Shaedon Sharpe adds another 21.1 PPG, and Jerami Grant chips in 19.5 PPG. That’s three guys who can get buckets, and in theory, that should be enough to handle a bottom-feeder like New Orleans.
But here’s the problem: the Blazers just got boat-raced by Memphis 119-96, and that loss wasn’t competitive after the first quarter. They’re also dealing with injury questions—Jrue Holiday is out with a calf injury, Robert Williams III is questionable with an illness, and Hansen Yang is questionable with a face contusion. Holiday being out is significant because he’s a veteran presence who can stabilize possessions. Williams’ absence or limited availability hurts their interior defense, which is already suspect.
The Blazers are 3-6 at home and 6-9 on the road, which tells me they’re not a team that dominates anywhere. They’re middling, and middling teams laying 4.5 on the road in December against desperate opponents is exactly the spot where they burn you. Portland’s got the talent, but do they have the focus and execution after getting embarrassed by the Grizzlies? I’m not convinced.
Pelicans Breakdown: The Other Side
New Orleans is a disaster, no question. At 3-22, they’re in full tank mode whether they admit it or not. But let’s look at what they showed against San Antonio: they scored 135 points and had a 20-point halftime lead before collapsing. Rookie Dylan Harper dropped 22 points including the game-winner for the Spurs, and Harrison Barnes torched them for 24. The Pelicans can score—they just can’t finish games or defend anyone.
Zion Williamson is out for another few weeks with an adductor injury, and Dejounte Murray won’t return until after New Year’s. That’s two of their best players on the shelf. Jordan Poole is questionable with a quad injury, which is another blow. But Trey Murphy III is averaging 21.0 PPG and 6.4 RPG, and he’s capable of going nuclear on any given night. Zion’s 22.1 PPG is obviously missing from the lineup, but Murphy can carry the scoring load in spurts.
The Pelicans are 2-12 at home, which is putrid. But they’re also getting 4.5 points in a building where they’re desperate for any kind of positive momentum. This is exactly the spot where a bad team plays above their heads for 40 minutes and either wins outright or loses by 2-3 points. The public’s all over Portland, which means the Pelicans are live to cover and potentially steal this game.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to execution and desperation. Portland has the better roster on paper, but they’re coming off a 23-point loss to Memphis and now have to travel to New Orleans for a road game against a team with nothing to lose. The Blazers are 6-9 on the road, which means they’re barely above .400 away from home. New Orleans might be 2-12 at the Smoothie King Center, but they just hung 132 points on San Antonio and showed they can score in bunches.
The total at 240.0 suggests Vegas expects both teams to push the pace and trade buckets. Neither team plays elite defense—Portland just allowed 119 to Memphis, and New Orleans gave up 135 to the Spurs. This should be a track meet with minimal stops, and in those types of games, the home underdog with nothing to lose often keeps it close or wins outright.
Portland’s injury situation is concerning. Without Jrue Holiday, they lose a stabilizing veteran who can run offense and defend multiple positions. If Robert Williams III can’t go or is limited, their interior defense takes another hit. New Orleans might be missing Zion and Murray, but they’ve been playing without those guys for weeks—they’re adjusted to life without them. Portland is still figuring out how to function without Holiday, and that’s a problem in a spot like this.
The key matchup is Trey Murphy III against Portland’s perimeter defense. If Murphy gets hot and starts knocking down threes, the Pelicans can absolutely hang around and cover this number. The Blazers don’t have the defensive personnel to shut down a scorer who’s feeling it, and Murphy’s averaging 21 PPG for a reason. I’m hammering this number before it moves—give me the home dog getting 4.5 points in a game that should be competitive throughout.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: New Orleans Pelicans +4.5 (-110)
Confidence Level: 3.5 Units
I’m taking the Pelicans and the points all day long. This line should be 7 or 8 if Portland was truly the side, and the fact that it’s sitting at 4.5 tells me Vegas expects a close game. New Orleans just scored 132 points against San Antonio and showed offensive life despite blowing a huge lead. Portland got embarrassed by Memphis and now has to travel for a road game without Jrue Holiday. The Blazers are 6-9 on the road and haven’t shown they can dominate anyone away from home.
The market’s disrespecting the Pelicans here, and I’m buying the home dog in a game that should come down to the final possessions. New Orleans is desperate for any kind of win, and Portland is the type of mediocre team that lets bad opponents hang around. Give me the points, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Pelicans win this game straight up. This is exactly the spot where the public gets burned, and I’m fading the chalk with confidence. Let’s cash this ticket.
