Bryan Bash dives into Friday’s Trail Blazers vs Rockets matchup, weighing Portland’s surging offense behind Deni Avdija and Shaedon Sharpe against Houston’s size, rebounding edge, and market-inflated home spread to find the sharp side of this bet.
The Rockets are laying 8 points at home against a Trail Blazers team that just dropped 35 on the Pelicans from Shaedon Sharpe? Houston’s 7-3, sure, but Portland’s 6-5 and coming off a statement win in New Orleans where they outscored the Pels 38-26 in the third quarter alone. The market’s disrespecting Portland here, and I’m not buying what Vegas is selling.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- Date/Time: Friday, November 14, 2025, 8:00 PM CT
- Venue: Toyota Center, Houston, TX
- Spread: Rockets -8 (-115) / Trail Blazers +8 (-105)
- Total: 236 (Over -115 / Under -105)
- Moneyline: Rockets -340 / Trail Blazers +270
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
The books are begging you to take Houston here. They see a 7-3 Rockets squad averaging 124.0 points per game with an +11.0 scoring margin against a Trail Blazers team sitting at 6-5 with a modest +1.9 margin. On paper, it looks like a Houston blowout waiting to happen.
But here’s what the public’s missing: Portland averages 121.0 PPG (7th in the league) and just put up 125 on the road against New Orleans two nights ago. The Blazers shoot 83.1% from the free throw line (5th best) and get to the charity stripe 26.8 times per game. Meanwhile, Houston’s allowing opponents to shoot 45.58% from the field defensively—not exactly lockdown territory.
The Rockets are also coming off a comfortable 135-112 win over the putrid Wizards, the kind of game that makes teams think they’re better than they actually are. That’s exactly the spot where Houston burns you. Portland’s hungry, fresh off a signature road win, and this 8-point spread screams overreaction to Houston’s recent success against weak competition.
Trail Blazers Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Portland’s offense is humming right now. Deni Avdija has scored 25+ points in five straight games—the longest streak for any Blazers player since Dame Lillard’s 19-game run in 2022-23. He dropped 32 against New Orleans after putting up 27 in Orlando. That’s back-to-back 25+ efforts on the road, and he’s averaging 26.1 PPG, 6.3 RPG, and 4.6 APG this season.
Then there’s Shaedon Sharpe, who went off for 35 points on Wednesday night, going a perfect 11-for-11 on 2-point attempts. He’s averaging 21.1 PPG and provides a second scoring punch that keeps defenses honest. Add Jerami Grant’s 18.1 PPG and veteran playmaker Jrue Holiday’s 17.0 PPG and 8.5 APG, and Portland has multiple ways to attack.
The Blazers are putting up 53.6 points in the paint per game (5th in the NBA) and pushing the tempo with 18.5 fastbreak points (5th). They’re getting quality looks and converting at a solid clip. Yes, they’re missing Scoot Henderson and Damian Lillard to injuries, but this current rotation is clicking offensively.
Rockets Breakdown: The Other Side
Houston’s defense is the real story here. They’re allowing just 113.0 PPG (6th best) and own the league’s best rebounding margin with 63.3 boards per game to opponents’ 49.6. Alperen Sengun is a monster on the glass with 10.2 RPG while chipping in 22.1 PPG and 7.2 APG. He’s a walking double-double and the fulcrum of everything Houston does.
Kevin Durant continues to defy age at 37, dropping 24.6 PPG on 49.1% shooting with his trademark efficiency. Add Amen Thompson’s 17.6 PPG and Jabari Smith Jr.’s 14.1 PPG, and the Rockets have scoring depth to match their defensive intensity.
But here’s the catch: Houston’s shooting 43.5% from three at home this season but only 49.78% overall from the field. They had a season-high 81 first-half points against Washington, but the Wizards are 1-11 and playing without half their roster. The Rockets are 2-2 at home ATS this season—they haven’t been a cash machine at Toyota Center like the spread suggests.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This comes down to pace and Portland’s ability to get to the line. The Blazers average 26.8 free throw attempts per game and convert at 83.1%. Houston fouls at a rate of 20.1 personal fouls per game at home, and with Portland’s aggressive drives to the rim (53.6 paint points per game), we’re looking at a parade to the charity stripe.
The total of 236 is juicy. Portland’s averaging 121.0 PPG, Houston’s at 124.0—that’s 245 right there before we factor in possessions and tempo. Both teams rank in the top 10 for pace, and Portland just scored 125 on the road two nights ago. The Blazers are 8-3 to the Over this season, including 4-2 on the road. Houston’s 8-2 to the Over, with 6-0 on the road. The writing’s on the wall with this total.
Head-to-head history favors Portland covering in Houston. The Blazers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games against the Rockets, and while Houston’s won the last few meetings straight up, Portland’s covered the number. This is exactly the kind of motivated spot where the underdog keeps it close.
Houston’s 38.2% offensive rebounding rate is elite, but Portland’s no slouch on the glass with 13.8 offensive boards per game. The Rockets will get second-chance opportunities, but the Blazers have the firepower to match punch-for-punch in what should be a track meet.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
BASH’S BEST BET: Trail Blazers +8 (-105)
I’m hammering Portland plus the points before this line moves. Avdija’s on a heater, Sharpe just went nuclear, and the Blazers have proven they can score on anybody. Eight points is too many for a team averaging 121 PPG against a Houston defense that’s been feast-or-famine depending on opponent quality.
The Rockets just beat up on the worst team in the league and suddenly everyone thinks they’re world-beaters. Portland’s the better offensive team in this matchup, and with Holiday running the point and orchestrating at 8.5 assists per game, they’ll execute in crunch time. This game stays within a possession or two all night.
The Over 236 also screams value. Both teams want to run, both teams can score, and Portland’s going to the line 25+ times minimum. I’d play the Over as a standalone or pair it with Portland +8 for a two-team teaser dropping the total to 230 and the spread to +14. This one’s going to be a shootout, and the Blazers are live dogs all night long. Load up on this before the sharp money catches on.
