The San Antonio Spurs host the Portland Trail Blazers in a Western Conference clash that finds the home side laying a significant number despite missing their franchise cornerstone. With Victor Wembanyama sidelined and Portland’s Deni Avdija reaching star status, our expert analysis breaks down the point spread and identifies the sharpest ATS pick for this Saturday night showdown at the Frost Bank Center.
The Setup: Trail Blazers at Spurs
But let me walk you through why this line exists at 8.5 and not higher. The market is accounting for Wembanyama’s absence — he hyperextended his left knee Wednesday and got a clean MRI but won’t play here. Portland also catches a break with their recent win providing some offensive rhythm. The question isn’t whether San Antonio should be favored. It’s whether their depth and home court at the Frost Bank Center can cover nearly nine points against a Trail Blazers team that’s been competitive on the road at 8-11. I keep coming back to how San Antonio has handled business this season, and once you dig into the matchup data, this spread starts to look more reasonable than it should.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: January 3, 2026, 8:00 ET
Venue: Frost Bank Center
Spread: Spurs -8.5 (-110) / Trail Blazers +8.5 (-110)
Total: 238.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)
Moneyline: Spurs -388 / Trail Blazers +293
Why This Line Exists
Let’s start with the obvious: San Antonio is 12-4 at home this season, and Portland is 8-11 on the road. That’s a legitimate home-court advantage that typically adds 2-3 points to any spread. The Spurs’ 25-9 record isn’t built on Wembanyama alone — they’ve got legitimate depth with Fox averaging 21.8 points and 5.9 assists, and Stephon Castle contributing 18.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 7.0 assists per game. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this team has maintained elite play even when their best player sits.
The market landed at 8.5 because it’s pricing in Wembanyama’s absence but also recognizing that Portland is dealing with their own injury issues. Jerami Grant is out with an Achilles injury, robbing the Blazers of their 20.0 points per game scorer. Matisse Thybulle remains sidelined, and Jrue Holiday is still working back from a calf injury. When you do the math over 96 possessions, you’re looking at a Portland team that’s missing a key two-way piece in Grant while facing a Spurs squad that just proved they can function at a high level without their anchor.
The total sitting at 238.5 tells you the market expects both teams to push pace and score. Portland just put up 122 against New Orleans, and San Antonio dropped 123 on Indiana. These aren’t defensive slugfests — they’re teams that can get buckets in transition and in the halfcourt. The spread at 8.5 reflects confidence that San Antonio’s home environment and rotation depth will create enough separation, even without Wembanyama’s rim protection and offensive versatility.
Trail Blazers Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Portland’s offense runs through Deni Avdija, who’s having a breakout season at 25.6 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 7.0 assists per game. That performance against New Orleans wasn’t a fluke — it’s who he’s been all year. Shaedon Sharpe adds 21.8 points per game, giving Portland a legitimate one-two punch on the perimeter. Caleb Love hit six threes in that Pelicans game and chipped in 22 points, showing the kind of shooting variance that can keep Portland competitive in any game.
The problem is consistency and defense. The Blazers are 15-20 for a reason — they don’t have the depth or defensive discipline to hang with elite teams over 48 minutes. Without Grant, they lose a versatile defender who could theoretically match up with Fox or Castle. Donovan Clingan had 11 points and 15 rebounds against New Orleans, but he’s going to face a much different challenge here against a Spurs frontcourt that moves the ball and spaces the floor.
Portland’s 8-11 road record tells you they can steal games away from home, but they’re not built to consistently cover spreads in hostile environments. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests if Avdija and Sharpe both get hot, but the supporting cast has to show up in ways they haven’t consistently this season.
Spurs Breakdown: The Other Side
San Antonio’s 25-9 record is legitimate, and their 12-4 home mark shows they protect the Frost Bank Center. Even without Wembanyama, they just beat Indiana by 10 points, with Fox leading the way at 24 points. That’s significant because it shows this roster has multiple creators who can carry the offensive load. Castle’s 18.0 points and 7.0 assists per game gives them a secondary playmaker who can run pick-and-roll and create advantages in the halfcourt.
The main risk here is rim protection. Wembanyama’s 24.3 points and 11.7 rebounds per game are obviously irreplaceable, but more importantly, his defensive presence alters everything around the basket. Without him, Portland’s guards can get to the rim more easily, and Clingan might find more offensive rebounding opportunities. Devin Vassell is also out with an adductor strain, which removes another rotation piece that provides shooting and secondary creation.
But here’s the thing — San Antonio’s depth has carried them all season. They’re not a one-man show, and their ability to win without Wembanyama against a Pacers team that’s been struggling (11-game losing streak) shows they can execute their system regardless of personnel. The Spurs’ home-court advantage is real, and their 12-5 road record proves they’re not just beating up on weak competition at home — they’re a legitimately good team.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the paint and in transition. Portland wants to push pace off makes and misses, leveraging Avdija’s playmaking and Sharpe’s athleticism to get easy buckets before San Antonio’s defense is set. The Blazers put up 122 against New Orleans by getting out in transition and hitting threes — Love’s six triples were a perfect example of how they can space the floor and punish teams that don’t get back.
San Antonio wants to control tempo and execute in the halfcourt. Without Wembanyama, they’ll rely more heavily on Fox and Castle to create advantages in pick-and-roll and get to the free-throw line. The Spurs dropped 123 on Indiana by moving the ball and finding open looks — that’s their identity even without their best player. When you do that math over 96 possessions, the team that controls the glass and limits second-chance opportunities will cover this spread.
I keep coming back to this efficiency gap: San Antonio is second in the West with a 25-9 record because they’re consistently more efficient on both ends. Portland’s 15-20 mark reflects a team that can score but struggles to get stops when it matters. Without Grant’s versatility on defense, the Blazers don’t have an obvious answer for Fox or Castle attacking off the bounce. Clingan will have to anchor the paint, but he’s facing a Spurs team that spaces the floor and forces big men to defend in space.
The total at 238.5 feels about right. Both teams can score, and neither is built to grind out low-possession games. If this game stays in the 115-125 range for both sides, San Antonio’s home-court advantage and depth should create enough separation to cover 8.5 points. I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still gets there if Portland’s supporting cast doesn’t match their performance against a depleted Pelicans squad.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking San Antonio -8.5 (-110) for 2 units. Here’s why: the Spurs just proved they can win and cover without Wembanyama, beating Indiana by 10 points in a spot where they should’ve been vulnerable. Portland’s win over New Orleans was impressive, but that Pelicans team is injury-ravaged and not remotely comparable to what they’ll face here. San Antonio’s 12-4 home record and depth advantage with Fox, Castle, and their supporting cast should create enough separation over 48 minutes.
The main risk here is Portland’s shooting variance. If Avdija, Sharpe, and Love all get hot from three, the Blazers can stay within this number and potentially steal a cover. But I’m betting on San Antonio’s consistency and home-court advantage to wear down a Portland team that’s missing Grant and doesn’t have the defensive personnel to slow down multiple creators. When you factor in pace, rotation depth, and how this matchup actually plays out over 96 possessions, that margin feels like it holds.
The Play: Spurs -8.5 (-110) | 2 Units
