The Raptors are laying a short 5-point spread at home despite missing two key starters (Barrett, Poeltl). Bryan Bash breaks down the injury impact and the Blazers’ offensive firepower to deliver his sharpest prediction.
The Setup: Trail Blazers at Raptors
The market’s asleep at the wheel, and this number proves it. The Raptors are sitting pretty at 14-7 and laying 5 points at home against an 8-12 Portland squad that’s limping into Scotiabank Arena on December 2nd at 7:30 ET. The books are begging you to take Toronto and lay the points with a team that just got demolished by the Knicks 116-94. Meanwhile, Portland’s out here with Deni Avdija averaging 25.8 PPG and actually playing competitive basketball despite their record. The public sees 14-7 versus 8-12 and thinks this is free money on the Raptors. I’ve seen this movie before, and it doesn’t end well for the chalk eaters. Toronto’s missing RJ Barrett, who’s been giving them 19.4 PPG, and suddenly this home favorite doesn’t look so intimidating. Sharp money knows what’s up here—this number should be closer to 7 or 8 if we’re being honest about talent disparity, but Vegas is daring you to take the short price. I’m looking at this spot differently.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Portland Trail Blazers at Toronto Raptors
Date & Time: December 2, 2025, 7:30 ET
Venue: Scotiabank Arena
Current Odds (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Trail Blazers +5.0 (-110) | Raptors -5.0 (-110)
- Moneyline: Trail Blazers +175 | Raptors -220
- Total: Over/Under 232.0 (-110)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Let’s break down why Vegas set this at 5 instead of the 7-8 you’d expect when a 4th-seed Eastern Conference team hosts a 10th-seed Western Conference squad. The oddsmakers know exactly what they’re doing here—they’re setting a trap line that looks too good to be true for Raptors backers. Toronto’s 7-2 at home, which screams ‘lay the points,’ but that recent 22-point beatdown against the Knicks is fresh in everyone’s memory. The market’s factoring in that RJ Barrett is out, and he’s been their third-leading scorer at 19.4 PPG and 4.8 RPG. That’s a significant offensive piece missing from a team that needs all the firepower it can get.
Portland, meanwhile, is 5-6 on the road—not great, but not terrible either. They just took a loss to Oklahoma City, but that Thunder team is 20-1 and rolling through everyone. The Blazers have been competitive, and with Deni Avdija absolutely balling out at 25.8 PPG, 7.1 RPG, and 5.8 APG, they’ve got a legitimate go-to scorer who can keep them in games. Shaedon Sharpe adding 20.9 PPG gives them a second weapon that can exploit Toronto’s vulnerabilities. The total sitting at 232 tells you Vegas expects a competitive game with scoring—not a blowout. This is exactly the spot where Toronto burns you if you’re not paying attention to the underlying numbers and injury situations.
Trail Blazers Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Portland’s sitting at 8-12, but don’t let that record fool you into thinking they’re a pushover. Deni Avdija is having a breakout season with 25.8 PPG, 7.1 RPG, and 5.8 APG—those are legitimate star numbers, and he’s doing it efficiently enough to keep the Blazers competitive every night. Pair that with Shaedon Sharpe’s 20.9 PPG, and you’ve got a one-two punch that can score with anyone in the league. Jerami Grant chipping in 19.1 PPG gives them a third option that makes this offense more dangerous than their record suggests.
The injury situation isn’t ideal—Matisse Thybulle is out, and Donovan Clingan is questionable with an illness. Scoot Henderson’s been out since November 21st with a hamstring issue and won’t be back for another couple weeks. But here’s the thing: Portland’s been playing without Henderson for a while now, and they’ve adjusted. Their 5-6 road record shows they can compete away from home, and they’re not getting blown out night after night. They just hung with Oklahoma City, the hottest team in basketball, losing 123-115 to a squad on a 12-game winning streak. That’s not a team that’s going to roll over for a Raptors squad that’s dealing with its own issues.
Raptors Breakdown: The Other Side
Toronto’s 14-7 record looks impressive on paper, and their 4th place standing in the Eastern Conference has people thinking they’re a legitimate contender. Brandon Ingram’s putting up 21.5 PPG, 5.7 RPG, and 3.7 APG, while Scottie Barnes is doing his thing with 19.9 PPG, 8.0 RPG, and 5.0 APG. Those are solid numbers from your top two guys, no question about it.
But here’s where the narrative falls apart: RJ Barrett is out, and that’s a massive blow to their offensive rhythm. Barrett was averaging 19.4 PPG and 4.8 RPG before going down with a knee sprain. The MRI showed no structural damage, but he’s been out since November 26th and won’t be back for this one. That’s nearly 20 points per game missing from the lineup, and against a team like Portland that can score in bunches, that’s a problem. Their most recent performance was a complete disaster—losing 116-94 to the Knicks at Madison Square Garden. That’s a 22-point beatdown where nothing went right. The public’s all over Toronto because of that 14-7 record, but the smart money is asking what this team looks like without Barrett against a motivated Portland squad that’s been playing competitive basketball.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
The key matchup here is Portland’s offensive firepower against Toronto’s ability to defend without one of their key perimeter pieces. The Raptors are 7-2 at home, which is their comfort zone, but they’re also coming off that embarrassing loss to New York where they couldn’t buy a bucket. Portland’s 5-6 on the road shows they can travel and compete, especially with Avdija playing at an All-Star level right now.
The total of 232 is telling—Vegas expects both teams to score, which makes sense given Portland’s offensive weapons and Toronto’s recent defensive struggles. When you’ve got three guys averaging between 19-26 PPG for Portland going against a Toronto team missing a 19 PPG scorer, the math starts to favor the visiting squad keeping this close. Avdija’s ability to facilitate at 5.8 APG while scoring means he can create for Sharpe and Grant when Toronto inevitably tries to key in on him.
Toronto’s advantage is supposed to be playing at Scotiabank Arena where they’re 7-2, but that home cooking didn’t help them against the Knicks. The market’s disrespecting Portland here, giving them 5 points when they’ve got the offensive firepower to not only cover but potentially win this game outright. The Blazers aren’t going to be intimidated by the road environment, and with Toronto still adjusting to life without Barrett, this is a spot where the underdog has real value.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m hammering Portland +5 before this line moves. This number should be 7 or 8 given the records, but Vegas knows Toronto’s vulnerable without Barrett and coming off that embarrassing Knicks loss. Portland’s got three legitimate scoring threats in Avdija (25.8 PPG), Sharpe (20.9 PPG), and Grant (19.1 PPG) who can keep pace with whatever Toronto throws at them. The Raptors are missing nearly 20 PPG without Barrett, and that’s not something you just replace overnight.
Give me the Trail Blazers +5 for 2 units. This is exactly the spot where the public overvalues the home favorite with the better record and underestimates the road dog with the offensive weapons. Portland’s been competitive all season despite their record, and they just hung with a 20-1 Oklahoma City team. Toronto’s reeling from a 22-point loss and trying to figure out rotations without one of their best players. That’s a recipe for a close game, and I’ll take the points all day long. Sharp money knows what’s up here—this line’s a gift, and I’m not letting it go to waste. Portland covers, and don’t be surprised if they win this one outright at +175.
