Golden State enters Dallas as a 4.5-point road favorite, but their prediction is clouded by a rotation shift after Jimmy Butler’s season-ending injury. With the Warriors ranking top-10 in offensive rating, they’ll need Steph Curry to shoulder an even higher usage rate against a Mavericks defense allowing 116.6 points per game.
The Setup: Warriors at Mavericks
Golden State lays 4.5 on the road in Dallas on Thursday night, and that number tells you the market hasn’t fully adjusted to life without Jimmy Butler. The Warriors just watched Butler go down with a season-ending knee injury, losing a guy who was giving them 20 points, 5.6 boards, and 4.9 assists per night. Now they’re walking into American Airlines Center as road favorites against a Mavericks team that’s been better at home (13-11) than their overall record (18-26) suggests. The spread feels tight when you consider Golden State’s road struggles—they’re 8-13 away from home this season—and the reality that their rotation depth just took a significant hit. Dallas isn’t good, but they’re getting 4.5 points at home with Cooper Flagg continuing to develop and Anthony Davis anchoring the paint. The question isn’t whether the Warriors can win. It’s whether they can cover without one of their primary shot creators.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks
Date: Thursday, January 22, 2026
Time: 7:30 ET
Venue: American Airlines Center
TV: Prime Video
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Warriors -4.5 (-110) | Mavericks +4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Warriors -185 | Mavericks +150
- Total: Over 232.5 (-110) | Under 232.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
The market is pricing Golden State as a road favorite because Stephen Curry is still Stephen Curry, and the Warriors sit at 25-20 while Dallas is 18-26. But this 4.5-point spread exists in a vacuum that doesn’t account for what just happened. Butler’s injury fundamentally changes Golden State’s offensive structure. He was their second-leading scorer at 20 points per game, and more importantly, he was a secondary ball-handler who could create when Curry faced defensive attention. Without him, the Warriors are leaning harder on Curry’s 27.1 points per game and hoping Brandin Podziemski (12.3 PPG) can step into expanded usage.
Dallas gets this number because they’re bad on the road (5-14) but competitive at home. Anthony Davis is averaging 20.4 points and 11.1 rebounds, and Flagg has been productive at 18.8 points and 6.3 boards per night. The Mavericks just rolled the Knicks 114-97 in New York, with Flagg dropping 18 in his first pro game at Madison Square Garden. That’s a team playing with some confidence, even if their overall record doesn’t inspire it. The 4.5-point spread assumes the Warriors are still functional without Butler and that their 25-20 record carries more weight than their 8-13 road split. I’m not convinced either assumption holds.
Golden State Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Warriors are 17-7 at home and 8-13 on the road, which tells you everything about how they’re built this season. They thrive in San Francisco where Curry can control pace and the home crowd energizes their transition game. On the road, they’re average at best, and now they’re trying to navigate that environment without Butler. Curry is still elite—27.1 points per game on high-volume shooting—but he’s going to see more defensive attention with Butler gone. Podziemski becomes the secondary creator by default, and while he’s solid, asking him to replace Butler’s production is a steep climb.
Gary Payton II is questionable for this game, which matters more now than it would have a week ago. The Warriors need every rotation piece they can get, and if Payton can’t go, their backcourt depth takes another hit. The recent loss to Toronto—145-127 at home—exposed how vulnerable Golden State can be when their defense breaks down. They’re not built to win shootouts on the road, especially not with a reshuffled rotation still figuring out minutes distribution.
Dallas Breakdown: The Other Side
Dallas is 13-11 at home, and that’s the version of this team that matters Thursday night. They’re not good, but they’re competitive in their building, and they have two legitimate scoring threats in Davis and Flagg. Davis is putting up 20.4 points and 11.1 rebounds per night, giving them a steady interior presence that can exploit Golden State’s lack of size. Flagg has been everything advertised—18.8 points, 6.3 boards, 4.1 assists—and he’s showing the kind of versatility that creates matchup problems.
The Mavericks are still waiting on Kyrie Irving to return from his ACL tear, but the recent buzz suggests he could be back before the All-Star break. That doesn’t help them Thursday, but it does speak to a team that’s playing for something beyond this season. P.J. Washington adds 14.6 points and 7.4 rebounds, giving them a third option who can stretch the floor. The loss of Dereck Lively II for the season hurts their depth behind Davis, but Daniel Gafford and Dwight Powell have been serviceable. This isn’t a great team, but at home against a Warriors squad dealing with a major rotation adjustment, they’re live to cover 4.5 points.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether Golden State can maintain offensive efficiency without Butler’s shot creation. The Warriors need Curry to be aggressive early, and they need Podziemski to step into a larger role without forcing bad shots. The problem is Dallas can load up on Curry defensively now that Butler isn’t there to punish overhelps. Davis anchors the paint, and Flagg has the length to make things difficult on the perimeter. If the Warriors can’t generate clean looks, they’re going to struggle to pull away.
Dallas wins this game—or at least covers—by controlling the glass and making Golden State work in the halfcourt. Davis averaging 11.1 rebounds per night gives them an edge on the boards, and the Warriors don’t have an obvious answer for his size. Flagg’s playmaking (4.1 assists per game) keeps the offense moving, and Washington’s shooting opens up driving lanes. The Mavericks don’t need to be great. They just need to be solid at home against a Warriors team that’s 8-13 on the road and missing a key piece.
The total sits at 232.5, which feels high given the circumstances. Golden State just gave up 145 to Toronto, but that was at home in a pace-up environment. On the road, they’re more methodical, and without Butler, their offensive ceiling drops. Dallas isn’t built to run teams off the floor. They grind possessions and rely on Davis in the paint. I’d lean under if forced to pick a total, but the spread is where the value sits.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking Dallas +4.5 at home, and I’m doing it with confidence. The Warriors are 8-13 on the road, they just lost their second-leading scorer to a season-ending injury, and they’re walking into a building where the Mavericks are 13-11. Golden State might win this game outright, but laying 4.5 points in this spot doesn’t make sense. The rotation is in flux, Curry is going to face heavier defensive attention, and Dallas has enough firepower with Davis and Flagg to keep this competitive. The Mavericks just beat the Knicks by 17 in New York with Flagg playing well in a big moment. They’re not scared of this spot.
The risk is Curry going nuclear and the Warriors finding their rhythm despite the Butler loss. That’s always possible when you have a player of Curry’s caliber. But the broader context favors Dallas. Home court matters, the spread is generous, and Golden State’s road record tells you they’re not built to dominate away from San Francisco. Give me the Mavericks catching 4.5 points in a game where the Warriors are still figuring out life without Butler.
BASH’S BEST BET: Dallas Mavericks +4.5 for 2 units.
