Can Stephen Curry carry the Warriors on the second night of a back-to-back, or will Brooklyn’s top-ranked December defense stifle them? Bryan Bash breaks down the situational factors and provides his top ATS pick.
The Setup: Warriors at Nets
Golden State is laying 3.5 points at Barclays Center on Sunday night, and on the surface, this number makes sense. The Warriors sit at 16-16 with Stephen Curry averaging nearly 29 points per game and Jimmy Butler providing secondary creation. Brooklyn checks in at 10-19, sitting 13th in the East. The market sees a better team getting a short number on the road.
Here’s the thing — that surface-level read ignores the most important context in this matchup. Golden State is 6-12 on the road this season. Brooklyn just got Cam Thomas back after a 20-game absence, and he dropped 30 points immediately in his return against Minnesota. The Nets are 6-8 away from home but only 4-11 at Barclays, which creates an interesting dynamic when you factor in how this Warriors team has performed away from Chase Center.
Let me walk you through why this line exists — and why the number might be a possession or two too generous to Golden State given the matchup specifics and situational context.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 29, 2025, 7:30 ET
Venue: Barclays Center
Spread: Warriors -3.5 (-110) / Nets +3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Warriors -161 / Nets +132
Total: 221.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market is giving Golden State 3.5 points because of talent disparity and season-long performance. The Warriors are six games above .500, the Nets are nine games under. Curry is having an elite scoring season at 28.9 points per game, and Butler adds another dimension at nearly 20 per night with solid playmaking.
Brooklyn’s 10-19 record reflects a team that’s been without key pieces and hasn’t found consistent footing at home. Michael Porter Jr. has been excellent at 25.8 points and 7.4 rebounds per game, but the Nets have lacked the secondary scoring punch that Thomas provides. That 123-107 win over Minnesota in Thomas’s return showed what this offense can look like with both creators healthy.
But once you dig into the matchup data, the road/home splits tell a different story than the overall records suggest. Golden State’s 6-12 road mark isn’t just mediocre — it’s a significant red flag for a team being asked to cover a field goal and the hook away from home. Brooklyn may be 4-11 at Barclays, but they’re getting a Warriors team that has been demonstrably worse in road environments all season.
The line assumes Golden State’s talent advantage overcomes their road struggles. I’m not convinced that math holds up when Brooklyn is healthier than they’ve been in weeks and Golden State is coming off an overtime loss in Toronto where they allowed 141 points.
Warriors Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Golden State’s offense runs through Curry, who’s averaging 28.9 points with 4.3 assists per game. That’s elite scoring volume, but the efficiency questions matter when you’re on the road. Butler provides 19.6 points and 4.9 assists, giving the Warriors two capable creators, while Brandin Podziemski adds 12.4 points as a tertiary option.
The concern here is defensive consistency. That 141-127 overtime loss to Toronto exposed Golden State’s inability to get stops when the game stretched out. Scottie Barnes grabbed 25 rebounds and dished 10 assists while Toronto shot efficiently enough to push the game to overtime and then pull away. The Warriors allowed 141 points to a Raptors team that isn’t an offensive juggernaut.
Golden State is also dealing with depth issues. Al Horford is out on rest, De’Anthony Melton remains sidelined with a knee injury, and LJ Cryer is out with a back strain. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this rotation gets stretched when you’re playing back-to-back situations or need defensive versatility against multiple scoring threats.
The 6-12 road record isn’t noise. It’s a pattern that suggests this team struggles to maintain their offensive rhythm and defensive intensity away from home. When you’re laying points on the road, you need to be better than Golden State has shown in those environments.
Nets Breakdown: The Other Side
Brooklyn’s offense just got significantly more dangerous. Cam Thomas returned from his 20-game hamstring absence and immediately scored 30 points against Minnesota. That’s not just a feel-good comeback story — it’s a legitimate second scoring option alongside Porter Jr., who’s been carrying the offensive load at 25.8 points per game.
Porter’s 7.4 rebounds per game and 3.2 assists show he’s not just a scorer — he’s been Brooklyn’s most complete offensive player this season. Nicolas Claxton adds 13.6 points and 7.8 rebounds with 4.3 assists, providing interior presence and playmaking from the center position that creates advantages in the pick-and-roll.
The 4-11 home record is ugly, but context matters. Brooklyn has been without Thomas for the majority of their home games. That 123-107 win over Minnesota showed what this offense can generate when both primary scorers are available. Six players scored in double figures, which speaks to the depth and balance that emerges when defenses can’t load up on Porter.
Defensively, Brooklyn won’t lock down Curry or Butler, but they don’t need to. They need to generate enough offense to stay within a possession or two, and with Thomas back creating shots and Porter continuing his excellent season, that offensive ceiling is higher than the 10-19 record suggests.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided by Golden State’s ability to maintain defensive intensity on the road against a Brooklyn team that just got healthier. The Warriors allowed 141 points to Toronto in their last game, and while overtime inflates that number, the defensive breakdowns were consistent throughout regulation.
Brooklyn’s offensive structure with Thomas back creates problems for Golden State’s rotation. Porter demands attention on the perimeter, Thomas can score in isolation and pick-and-roll, and Claxton provides rim pressure and short-roll playmaking. That’s three distinct offensive threats that require different defensive coverages, and Golden State’s depth issues make those rotations harder to execute consistently.
I keep coming back to this efficiency gap — or lack thereof. Golden State hasn’t shown they can dominate on the road this season. Their 6-12 mark away from home suggests they’re closer to a .500 team in road environments. Brooklyn may be 4-11 at Barclays, but they’re getting a healthier roster against a Warriors team that just allowed 141 points and has struggled all season to cover numbers on the road.
When you do the math over 96 possessions, Golden State needs to be 3-4 points better than Brooklyn to cover this spread. Based on their road performance and Brooklyn’s improved health, that margin feels stretched. The Warriors might win this game straight up, but covering 3.5 points requires a level of road dominance they haven’t shown this season.
The total sitting at 221.5 also creates an interesting dynamic. Both teams have offensive firepower, and Golden State’s recent defensive struggles suggest this game could push toward the higher end of the scoring range. But that’s secondary to the spread equation, which is where the value sits.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Brooklyn Nets +3.5 (-110) | 2 Units
I’m taking Brooklyn plus the points at home. Golden State’s 6-12 road record is the foundation of this play, but it’s reinforced by Brooklyn getting Cam Thomas back and showing immediate offensive improvement. That 30-point performance against Minnesota wasn’t just volume — it was efficient creation that opens up the entire floor for Porter and Claxton.
The main risk here is Curry going nuclear and dragging Golden State to a comfortable win through sheer shot-making. That’s always possible when you’re betting against a team with a top-five offensive player. But the Warriors’ defensive issues and road struggles create enough doubt about their ability to pull away from a Nets team that just got significantly better.
I’ve accounted for the home court — and Brooklyn’s poor home record — and it still doesn’t get there for Golden State. The Warriors need to be demonstrably better in this matchup to cover 3.5, and their road performance all season suggests they’re not built to dominate away from Chase Center. Brooklyn stays within the number, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they won this game outright.
