Golden State’s road issues and New Orleans’ pace-plus-rebounding profile create a high-variance matchup with a clear betting angle. Here’s how the data shapes our Warriors vs Pelicans pick and prediction.
The Setup: Warriors at Pelicans
The Warriors are laying 10.5 points against a Pelicans team that’s lost four straight and can’t guard anybody? Vegas is begging you to take Golden State here, and that’s exactly why sharp money knows what’s up. New Orleans is 2-10 straight up but 5-6-1 against the spread – they’ve been covering even when they lose. The books have this total at 228, and with the Warriors averaging 115.1 PPG and the Pelicans giving up 121.3 PPG, this number screams OVER.
Golden State is coming off back-to-back wins in San Antonio, with Steph Curry dropping 49 points in the last one. But here’s the trap: the Warriors are 2-6 ATS on the road this season and 3-6 straight up away from home. Meanwhile, New Orleans just got torched by the Lakers 118-104, with Trey Murphy III going nuclear for 35 points. The Pelicans can’t win, but they can sure as hell score – and that’s what makes this total the play.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Date/Time: Sunday, November 16, 2025 – 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA
Spread: Warriors -10.5 (Bovada -105) / -11 (MyBookie -110)
Total: 228 (Bovada) / 228.5 (MyBookie)
Moneyline: Warriors -510 / Pelicans +370
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
The market’s disrespecting the Pelicans here, but the numbers tell a different story. Golden State averages 115.1 PPG (21st in the NBA) and allows 114.6 PPG, giving them a razor-thin +0.5 point differential. New Orleans? They’re scoring 108.4 PPG (30th) but giving up a whopping 121.3 PPG (23rd worst), creating a brutal -12.9 differential. That’s why this spread exists – the Warriors should win by double digits based on the math.
But here’s what the books don’t want you to see: New Orleans is 5-6-1 ATS this season despite their terrible record. They’ve covered 55% of their games because they stay competitive even when they lose. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans’s last 5 games against Golden State, and the Warriors are just 2-3-1 ATS in their last 6 against New Orleans. The public’s all over the Warriors here, which means the smart play might be taking the Pelicans to cover or looking at that total.
Golden State shoots 45.4% from the field (22nd) with an effective FG% of 54.6%, while New Orleans shoots just 43.6% (27th) with a 50.5% effective FG%. The Warriors make 15.9 threes per game (4th in the league) compared to New Orleans’s 12.3 (23rd). But here’s the kicker: the Pelicans grab 13.4 offensive rebounds per game (7th) compared to Golden State’s 10.1 (21st). Those extra possessions keep New Orleans in games they have no business being in.
Warriors Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Steph Curry is absolutely on fire right now, coming off a season-high 49 points against the Spurs where he tied Michael Jordan for most 40-point games after age 30. He’s averaging 29.1 PPG this season on 47.2% shooting, draining 4.5 threes per game. The man is playing at an MVP level at 37 years old, and he’s the reason Golden State is even in this position.
But here’s the problem: the Warriors are thin. Jonathan Kuminga is OUT with a knee injury, and he was averaging 13.8 PPG and 6.6 RPG. Jimmy Butler has stepped up with 19.2 PPG and 5.5 RPG, but this team is 3-6 on the road for a reason. Their road defense allows 120.7 PPG compared to their overall 114.6 PPG allowed. That’s a massive difference, and the Pelicans can exploit it.
Golden State’s assist-to-turnover ratio is 1.69 (19th), and they’re averaging 49.5 total rebounds per game (27th in the league). They can score – they average 115.1 PPG – but they don’t dominate the glass, and against a team like New Orleans that crashes the offensive boards, that’s a problem. The Warriors are 5-0 at home but 3-6 on the road, and this is a classic letdown spot after those emotional back-to-back wins in San Antonio.
Pelicans Breakdown: The Other Side
New Orleans is a disaster defensively, giving up 121.3 PPG (23rd worst in the NBA), but they can put points on the board when healthy. Trey Murphy III just dropped 35 points against the Lakers and is averaging 19.8 PPG. Jeremiah Fears, the rookie out of Oklahoma, is averaging 14.4 PPG with 2.0 steals per game and had 19 points with 7 steals in the last game.
The big question mark is Zion Williamson, who’s listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. He played just 5 games this season before getting hurt, averaging 22.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG, and 4.6 APG. If Zion plays, this spread drops. If he doesn’t, the Pelicans are still dangerous because they play with pace. They grab 13.4 offensive rebounds per game and create second-chance opportunities that keep games close.
New Orleans shoots 43.6% from the field overall but 49.1% on two-pointers (29th). Their three-point shooting is weak at 35.2% (19th), but they get to the line with 24.6 FTA per game. The Pelicans’ biggest issue is their defense – they allow opponents to shoot 50.7% from the field and 64.4% on two-pointers (30th worst). They can’t stop anybody, which is why this total is the play.
COACHING CHANGE: The Pelicans fired head coach Willie Green after the team’s poor 2-10 start. James Borrego has been named interim head coach. This is the Pelicans’ first game under new leadership, which could either spark a turnaround or add additional uncertainty to an already struggling team.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to pace and possessions. The Warriors want to control tempo and limit New Orleans’s offensive rebounding, but that’s easier said than done. The Pelicans are grabbing offensive boards at a 28% clip (13th in the league) compared to Golden State’s 23.2% (23rd). Every extra possession New Orleans gets keeps them in this game and pushes the total higher.
Head-to-head history shows the Warriors dominate this series – they’re 18-7 straight up in their last 25 road games against New Orleans. But here’s the trap: the total has gone UNDER in 4 of the last 5 meetings, with an average total score of 109.9 PPG per team in the last 10 games. That’s significantly lower than where these teams are scoring this season.
The Warriors average 112.6 PPG on the road this season compared to New Orleans allowing 119.4 PPG at home. That matchup favors Golden State. But the Pelicans score 108.6 PPG at home, and the Warriors allow 120.7 PPG on the road. That’s a combined projected total of 233.2 points based on home/road splits – way over the 228 line.
The key stat: New Orleans is 2-4-1 ATS at home this season but 6-6 on the total (OVER/UNDER split). The Warriors are 2-3 OVER on the road and 9-5 OVER overall this season. Both teams have been trending OVER, and with Golden State’s defense struggling on the road and New Orleans’s inability to guard anybody, this total is too low.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
BASH’S BEST BET: OVER 228 – Load up on this before the line shifts.
The math is screaming OVER here. The Warriors score 115.1 PPG and allow 114.6 PPG. The Pelicans score 108.4 PPG and allow 121.3 PPG. If both teams perform to their season averages, we’re looking at a combined 236.4 points. Even if Golden State wins by 15, we’re talking 122-107, which gets us to 229. The Warriors on the road allow 120.7 PPG, and the Pelicans at home score 108.6 PPG – that alone gets us to 229.3 combined.
The Warriors are coming off back-to-back high-scoring games in San Antonio (109 and 125 points), and Steph Curry is in his bag right now. New Orleans just scored 104 against the Lakers and allowed 118. These teams play with pace, and the Pelicans’ offensive rebounding creates extra possessions that push the total higher. I’m hammering this number before it moves to 230.
As for the side, I’m staying away from that 10.5 spread. The Warriors should win, but they’re 2-6 ATS on the road, and New Orleans covers when nobody expects it. If you’re forcing me to pick, I’ll take the Pelicans +10.5 as a sprinkle, but the real money is on the OVER. The writing’s on the wall with this matchup – both teams can score, neither can defend, and we’re cashing OVER tickets all night long.
