Bryan Bash tees up an ATS and total look for Warriors at Spurs—factoring the back-to-back spot for Golden State, Wembanyama’s surge, and Curry’s impact.
The Setup: Warriors at Spurs
This line’s a joke. The Spurs laying 4.5 points against a Warriors team that’s 1-6 on the road? That’s not a trap—that’s a gift-wrapped invitation from Vegas. Golden State just got absolutely demolished in OKC, losing 126-102, and now they’re right back on the road for the second night of a back-to-back. Meanwhile, San Antonio is riding high at 8-2, perfect 5-0 at home, and Victor Wembanyama is playing like the alien everyone thought he’d be.
The books set this total at 229.5-230, and I’m seeing the Warriors averaging 114.8 PPG while the Spurs are putting up 119.3. But here’s the thing—Golden State’s road offense drops to 112.8 PPG, and they just scored 102 against OKC’s elite defense. The Spurs? They’re scoring 118.6 at home. The market’s basically begging you to take Golden State and the points, and I’m about to tell you why that’s exactly what the sharp money’s doing.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- Date/Time: Wednesday, November 12, 2025 at 8:00 PM CT
- Venue: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX
- Spread: Spurs -4.5 (-110)
- Total: 229.5/230 (O/U -110)
- Moneyline: Warriors +153-160 / Spurs -185 to -189
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Let me break down why Vegas set this number at 4.5. The Spurs are smoking teams at home—undefeated through five games at the Frost Bank Center, with an average margin of victory that’s got them ranked 2nd in the West. They’re averaging 119.3 PPG overall with an elite defensive rating of 111.3 PPG allowed (4th in the league). That’s an 8.0 point differential, folks.
Golden State? They’re .500 at 6-6, but that record is MASSIVELY inflated by their 5-0 home record. On the road, they’re an abysmal 1-6. Their road offense averages 112.8 PPG while allowing 122.0 PPG. That’s a -9.2 point differential away from Chase Center. The books know the public sees “Warriors” and “Curry” and thinks value, but the numbers scream Spurs coverage.
The total at 229.5 is interesting because the Warriors shoot 37% from three (13th) and average 15.4 threes per game (4th most in the league), but their overall shooting efficiency is mediocre at 45.9% (20th). The Spurs defend the three at 39.7% allowed (30th—not great), but their overall defensive efficiency at 111.3 PPG is elite. This screams Under, especially with Golden State on a back-to-back after getting throttled.
Warriors Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Stephen Curry just came back from a three-game illness absence and looked rusty as hell—4-for-13 shooting for 11 points against OKC. He’s averaging 25 PPG on the season, but at 37 years old, asking him to bounce back on a back-to-back road game is a tall order. Jonathan Kuminga led them with just 13 points. That’s not going to cut it.
The Warriors’ road numbers are brutal: 112.8 PPG scored, 122.0 PPG allowed. Their effective field goal percentage drops to 54.7% on the road (20th), and they’re getting outrebounded 43.0 to 41.0 allowed on the road. Jimmy Butler (18.3 PPG, 5.3 RPG) and Kuminga (14.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG) need monster games, but Butler’s playing 30.1 minutes and has been inconsistent.
The Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games and just got embarrassed 126-102 by OKC last night. Their defensive rebounding is 32.1 per game (18th), and they’re about to face Wembanyama, who’s averaging 12.8 rebounds per game. This is exactly the spot where the Warriors burn you.
Spurs Breakdown: The Other Side
Victor Wembanyama is putting up video game numbers: 25.7 PPG, 12.8 RPG, 3.9 BPG, and shooting 50.6% from the field. He just dropped 38 points, 12 rebounds, and 5 blocks on the Bulls two nights ago, including 18 points in the fourth quarter alone. The kid’s 7-foot-4 and moving like a guard. He became the first player in NBA history with 35+ points, 10+ rebounds, 5+ assists, 5+ blocks, and 5+ threes in a game. That’s not a typo.
The Spurs are averaging 119.3 PPG (11th) with a league-best shooting efficiency of 49.8% (5th). At home, they’re even better: 118.6 PPG on 59.7% two-point shooting (3rd). De’Aaron Fox just joined the team and dropped 22.5 PPG through two games. Stephon Castle is facilitating like a veteran with 7.7 APG and 18.5 PPG. Devin Vassell adds 13.8 PPG.
Defensively, San Antonio is allowing just 111.3 PPG (4th) and 108.0 PPG at home (5th). They’re blocking 5.8 shots per game (4th) and forcing 15.6 turnovers per game. They just held the Bulls to 28% shooting in the fourth quarter while scoring on 43.5% efficiency. This team knows how to close, and they’re 5-5 ATS with a 6-4 Over/Under record.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
Let’s talk about the pace and efficiency metrics that matter. The Spurs average 54.7 total rebounds per game (12th) compared to the Warriors’ 49.9 (27th). In the paint, San Antonio dominates with 52.0 PPG (10th) while Golden State manages just 42.2 PPG (27th). Wembanyama alone will control the paint on both ends—he’s averaging 3.9 blocks per game and 11.3 defensive rebounds.
The Warriors rely heavily on the three-ball (41.7 attempts per game, 7th most), but the Spurs have seen this movie before. In their head-to-head history, the Spurs are 6-4 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the home team has dominated this series. The Warriors’ road struggles (1-6 straight up, 1-5 ATS) meet the Spurs’ home dominance (5-0 straight up, 4-1 ATS).
Golden State’s back-to-back situation is crushing. They traveled from OKC to San Antonio overnight, and historically, teams on the second night of a road back-to-back shoot worse, rebound worse, and cover at a significantly lower rate. The Spurs, meanwhile, have been home since Sunday and are fully rested. The fatigue factor alone is worth 3-4 points.
Curry’s return from illness and immediate back-to-back is concerning. He logged 29.9 minutes against OKC but struggled defensively, picking up his fifth foul midway through the third quarter. The Spurs will attack him relentlessly in pick-and-roll situations with Wembanyama and Castle. This isn’t the matchup where a 37-year-old Curry bounces back.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
BASH’S BEST BET: Spurs -4.5 (-110) – 2 Units
This is one of those spots where everything aligns. The Warriors are exhausted, on the road where they’re 1-6, playing a back-to-back after getting destroyed by 24 points. The Spurs are undefeated at home, led by a generational talent in Wembanyama who’s playing the best basketball of his young career. The numbers don’t lie: San Antonio’s 8.0 point differential at home versus Golden State’s -9.2 point differential on the road. That’s a 17-point swing in context.
The total is trickier, but I’m leaning Under 229.5 as well. The Warriors averaged 102 points last night and will struggle to crack 110 on tired legs against this Spurs defense. San Antonio doesn’t need to go nuclear to cover—they just need to play their game and let Wembanyama feast in the paint.
The writing’s on the wall with this matchup. Vegas set the line at 4.5 knowing the public would think “Curry + Warriors = value.” But the sharp money knows what’s up here—this is a Spurs blowout waiting to happen. I’m hammering San Antonio -4.5 before this line moves to -6 by tip-off. Load up.
