Golden State heads back to San Antonio just 48 hours after a high-scoring clash, and the oddsmakers have flipped the script with the Spurs laying points at home. Bryan Bash breaks down the rematch, line psychology, and his best ATS bet.
The Setup: Warriors at Spurs – Round 2 in 48 Hours
The Spurs are laying 3.5 points at home against a Warriors team that just beat them 125-120 two nights ago in this same building? The books are begging you to take Golden State and that +3.5, and I’m here to tell you why that’s exactly the trap they want you in.
San Antonio’s 8-3 straight up and 5-1 at home this season. The Warriors? They’re 7-6 overall and a dismal 2-6 on the road. Stephen Curry dropped 46 points on Wednesday, but that was peak Curry magic – 22 points in the third quarter alone, going 5-for-9 from three and making all nine free throws in that frame. The public sees that performance and thinks “Warriors have their number.” Sharp money knows what’s up here – regression is coming.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- Date/Time: Friday, November 14, 2025 at 9:30 PM ET
- Venue: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX
- Spread: Spurs -3.5
- Total: 234.5
- Moneyline: Warriors +130 / Spurs -161
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
The market’s disrespecting San Antonio here, and it’s because of recency bias. Everyone’s talking about Curry’s 46-point eruption and the Warriors’ 125-120 win on Wednesday. But let’s look at what actually matters: the Spurs are averaging 119.4 points per game this season while allowing just 112.5 points per game – that’s a +6.8 scoring margin that ranks them elite on both ends.
Golden State? They’re scoring 115.5 per game and allowing 115.1 – essentially a break-even team. The Warriors shot 32-for-36 from the free throw line in that win (88.9%), while San Antonio went just 14-for-16. That’s not sustainable, and the Spurs aren’t going to shoot 48.9% from the field and lose at home again.
Here’s the kicker: San Antonio is 1-5 against the spread in their last six games, which means the public is fading them. But they’re 9-3 straight up in their last 12. The market sees the ATS struggles and undervalues them. That’s where the value lives.
Warriors Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Golden State’s road woes are well-documented – that 2-6 mark away from home isn’t a fluke. They’re averaging just 113.0 points per game on the road compared to their 115.5 overall average. The Warriors shot 42.4% from the field in Wednesday’s win, below their season average of 45.7%, but Curry’s free throw parade (9-for-9 in Q3) and the team’s overall 32-for-36 from the stripe bailed them out.
Here’s what concerns me: Jimmy Butler added 28 points and Moses Moody chipped in 19, but this team still needed Curry’s heroics to squeak out a five-point win. The Warriors grabbed just 9.85 offensive rebounds per game compared to San Antonio’s 11.82. They’re getting outmuscled on the glass, and that matters in back-to-back situations.
Jonathan Kuminga is listed as questionable with a knee issue – if he’s out or limited, that’s another body Golden State can’t afford to lose in the paint against Wembanyama and the Spurs’ size.
Spurs Breakdown: The Other Side
Victor Wembanyama had a monster triple-double on Wednesday – 31 points, 14 rebounds, 10 assists – and the Spurs still lost. That doesn’t happen often in San Antonio, especially at home where they’re 5-1. Stephon Castle also posted a triple-double (23-10-10), making them the first Spurs teammates to ever achieve that feat in the same game.
The Spurs are shooting 49.7% from the field this season, ranking them in the top 10 in offensive efficiency. They’re grabbing 45.82 total rebounds per game compared to Golden State’s 41.93. That’s a four-rebound advantage every night, which translates to extra possessions and second-chance points.
San Antonio’s averaging 119.36 points per game and allowing 112.55 – that +6.81 differential is legit. They’ve scored 120+ in three of their last five games, and the total has gone over in 13 of their last 19 home games. This team can light up the scoreboard.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This is exactly the spot where the Warriors burn you. They won on Wednesday, and now everyone thinks they have San Antonio figured out. But look at the head-to-head history: San Antonio is 3-7 straight up in their last 10 against Golden State but 6-4 against the spread. The Spurs cover when they’re getting disrespected, and that -3.5 line is pure disrespect.
The pace is going to favor San Antonio. They’re averaging 119.4 points per game at home and pushing tempo at 18.5 fastbreak points per game compared to Golden State’s 14.4. The Spurs want to run, and the Warriors’ road defense (allowing 122.25 points per game on the road per the SuperGrid data) can’t keep up.
Wembanyama is the X-factor. He’s averaging 26.2 points, 13.0 rebounds, and 3.6 blocks per game this season. In Wednesday’s game, he had a triple-double and still has something to prove after the loss. Revenge games matter, especially for a 21-year-old phenom playing in front of his home crowd again.
The rebounding edge is massive: San Antonio’s grabbing 45.82 boards per game to Golden State’s 41.93. That’s nearly four extra possessions per night. In a rematch where both teams know each other’s schemes, those extra chances will be the difference.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
BASH’S BEST BET: Spurs -3.5
I’m hammering this number before it moves. The public’s all over the Warriors after that Curry explosion, but this is a different game. San Antonio lost at home on Wednesday in a game where they got to the line just 16 times compared to Golden State’s 36 attempts. That’s not happening again.
The Spurs are 5-1 at home, and this is a pride game. Wembanyama and Castle both had triple-doubles and still lost. You think they’re not fired up for the rematch? The Warriors are 2-6 on the road and playing their second road game in 48 hours. Fatigue matters, especially when you’re asking Curry to drop 46 again.
Load up on this before the line shifts. The Spurs win this one by 8-10 points. Book it.
