Milwaukee looks for its third straight win at Fiserv Forum, but the smart pick hinges on whether a shorthanded Wizards squad can hang around late. Bash breaks down the point spread and why the absence of KyShawn George and Corey Kispert forces a massive offensive burden onto CJ McCollum.
The Setup: Wizards at Bucks
The Bucks are laying 10.5 points at home against a Wizards team that’s won just seven games all season. On the surface, this number makes sense. Milwaukee has Giannis Antetokounmpo averaging 28.7 points per game, they’re at home where they’re 8-8, and they’re coming off back-to-back wins for the first time since late October. Washington sits at 7-24, dead last in the East at 14th, and they’re missing key rotation pieces in KyShawn George and Corey Kispert.
Here’s the thing — I get why the market landed here. But once you dig into what Washington actually does when healthy pieces are on the floor, and how Milwaukee’s home dominance isn’t nearly as clean as that 8-8 record suggests, this double-digit spread starts to feel stretched. The Bucks are the better team, no question. But are they 11 points better against a Wizards squad that’s shown flashes of competitiveness? Let me walk you through why this line exists, and why I’m not laying it.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 31, 2025, 8:00 ET
Venue: Fiserv Forum
Current Spread: Milwaukee Bucks -10.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Bucks -556 / Wizards +386
Total: 231.0 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market is pricing Milwaukee as a dominant home favorite, and the logic is straightforward. The Bucks have Giannis posting 28.7 PPG with 9.7 rebounds and 5.9 assists. They just beat Charlotte 123-113 with Bobby Portis dropping 25 off the bench and shooting 8-of-12. That’s the kind of efficient bench production that can blow games open in the second half.
Washington, meanwhile, is 3-13 on the road and just got handled by Phoenix 115-101 at home. They’re down KyShawn George, who was averaging 15.0 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 5.1 assists — that’s real two-way production they’re missing. Corey Kispert is also out with a hamstring issue, and Malaki Branham is questionable with calf soreness. The Wizards are thin, and the market knows it.
But here’s what the line doesn’t fully account for: Washington still has CJ McCollum averaging 18.6 points and Alexandre Sarr putting up 17.5 points with 8.0 boards. That’s a legitimate scoring duo that can keep pace in transition. And Milwaukee’s 14-19 record tells you they’re not exactly steamrolling opponents. They’re 8-8 at home — that’s a coin flip, not a fortress. When you’re asking a .500 home team to cover double digits against a team with two legitimate scorers, you’re banking on a blowout that the Bucks haven’t consistently delivered this season.
Washington Wizards Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Wizards are bad, but they’re not devoid of talent. CJ McCollum at 18.6 PPG gives them a veteran scorer who can create his own shot and run pick-and-roll. Alexandre Sarr at 17.5 points and 8.0 rebounds provides interior presence and can punish mismatches in the paint. That’s a combined 36.1 points per game from two guys who can score in different ways.
The problem is depth. With George out (15.0 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 5.1 APG), they lose their most versatile wing. Kispert’s absence removes another perimeter threat. If Branham can’t go, they’re down to a seven-man rotation with limited shooting. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts toward Milwaukee in the third and fourth quarters when fatigue sets in.
But here’s the counter: Washington is 4-11 at home and 3-13 on the road. They’re not a team that quits. They kept it competitive against Phoenix for stretches before losing by 14. They’re not getting blown out by 20-plus every night. They’re losing by 10-15 in games where they can’t close. That matters when you’re evaluating an 10.5-point spread.
Milwaukee Bucks Breakdown: The Other Side
Milwaukee’s offense runs through Giannis, and when he’s engaged, they’re tough to stop. His 28.7 PPG, 9.7 RPG, and 5.9 APG make him the best player on the floor by a mile. Kevin Porter Jr. at 18.8 points and 7.6 assists gives them a secondary playmaker, and Ryan Rollins chipping in 17.1 points adds another scoring option.
Bobby Portis just went for 25 points on 8-of-12 shooting against Charlotte. That kind of bench efficiency is what separates good teams from great teams. When your second unit can maintain or extend leads, you cover spreads. But the Bucks are 14-19 overall and 8-8 at home. They’re not dominating at Fiserv Forum. They’re winning close games and losing others.
The main risk here is that Milwaukee doesn’t have the defensive consistency to lock down even a depleted Wizards offense. McCollum and Sarr can get theirs, and if Washington stays within 8-10 points heading into the fourth quarter, the Bucks have to execute down the stretch. That’s not a given with this team’s record.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the paint and in transition. Giannis will attack Sarr and whoever else Washington throws at him. He’ll get his 28-30 points. The question is whether the Bucks can generate enough secondary offense to pull away by double digits.
Washington’s best path to covering is keeping the pace manageable and forcing Milwaukee into halfcourt sets. McCollum can run pick-and-roll and get to his spots. Sarr can work the glass and create second-chance opportunities. If the Wizards can stay within 6-8 points through three quarters, they have a chance to cover even if they lose by 9 or 10.
I keep coming back to this efficiency gap: Milwaukee is good enough to win, but are they good enough to win by 11? Their 8-8 home record says they’re not blowing teams out at Fiserv Forum. They’re grinding out wins. Washington’s 3-13 road record is ugly, but they’re not getting destroyed every night. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests.
When you do the math over 96 possessions, Milwaukee needs to be roughly 11-12% more efficient than Washington to cover. That’s asking a lot from a team that’s 14-19 overall. I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Washington Wizards +10.5 (-110) | 2 Units
I’m taking the Wizards plus the points. Milwaukee will win this game, but they’re not covering 10.5 against a team with McCollum and Sarr capable of scoring 35-40 combined. The Bucks are 8-8 at home — they’re not a dominant home team. Washington is thin, but they’re not rolling over.
The main risk here is a third-quarter blowout where Giannis goes nuclear and the Wizards’ short rotation collapses. If Milwaukee gets up 20 in the third, this game is over. But I’m betting on Washington staying competitive enough to keep this within single digits late. The Bucks will win by 7-9, and we’ll cash the ticket.
Give me the Wizards plus the points at Fiserv Forum on New Year’s Eve. Let’s close out 2025 with a winner.
