Charlotte enters tonight’s Southeast Division clash as a 10.5-point favorite, and my ATS pick (taking the -10.5) is focused on the Wizards’ inability to generate offense without Trae Young. While Washington is 8-14 ATS on the road, the Hornets’ offensive trio of LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, and Kon Knueppel should overwhelm a Wizards defense that allows 123.2 PPG.
The Setup: Wizards at Hornets
Charlotte’s laying 10.5 at home against Washington on Saturday at noon, and the number tells you everything about where these rosters stand. The Hornets sit at 17-28 but they’re functional. The Wizards are 10-33 and missing their most important offseason acquisition. When you’re getting double digits in a basement matchup, it’s not about quality—it’s about which team can execute basic offense without falling apart. Washington’s playing without Trae Young, who hasn’t made his team debut yet while dealing with MCL and quadriceps injuries. That’s not a rotational adjustment. That’s a franchise-altering absence for a team that desperately needed his creation. Charlotte gets Brandon Miller back from probable status with a left ankle impingement, and he’s been on a heater—five straight games over 20 points. The spread reflects roster depth and shot creation, and right now, one team has it and the other doesn’t.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: January 24, 2026, 12:00 ET
Location: Spectrum Center
TV Network: Home: FanDuel SN SE | Away: MNMT, NBA League Pass
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
Spread: Charlotte Hornets -10.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Charlotte -526 / Washington +382
Total: 233.0 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market’s giving you a double-digit spread because Washington can’t create efficient offense without Young, and Charlotte’s got three guys averaging between 19 and 20 points per game. Alexandre Sarr leads the Wizards at 17.2 points with 7.4 boards, and KyShawn George chips in 15.6 points with 5.0 assists, but neither player is a primary initiator who can consistently break down a defense in the halfcourt. That matters when you’re on the road against a team that can run multiple creators through LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller. The Hornets are 7-13 at home, which isn’t impressive, but they’re better than their record suggests when healthy. Ball’s averaging 19.3 points with 7.5 assists, Miller’s at 20.0 points, and Kon Knueppel adds another 19.0 points. That’s three legitimate scoring threats who can rotate possessions and keep defenses honest. Washington doesn’t have that luxury right now. The 10.5 reflects the gap between a team that can generate clean looks and one that’s grinding through possessions without a true floor general. The total at 233 suggests the market expects Washington to struggle reaching 110 points, which tracks when you consider their offensive limitations without Young’s pick-and-roll creation.
Wizards Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Washington’s 4-18 on the road, and that’s not just bad luck—it’s a roster that can’t sustain offense away from home. Sarr’s a developing big who can score around the rim, but he’s not carrying an offense for 35 minutes. George provides secondary playmaking at 5.0 assists per game, but he’s not collapsing defenses or creating advantages in isolation. The Wizards are also without Bilal Coulibaly for a fifth straight game, which removes another rotation piece who could theoretically help on the wing. Cam Whitmore’s done for the season with a venous condition, so there’s no depth reinforcement coming. What you’re left with is a team that relies on Sarr’s interior presence and George’s perimeter shooting, but neither skill set translates to consistent halfcourt execution. The Wizards need Young’s ability to manipulate pick-and-roll coverages and generate open threes, and they simply don’t have a replacement for that. On the road in a noon spot, that’s a recipe for stagnant offense and long scoring droughts.
Hornets Breakdown: The Other Side
Charlotte’s not a good team at 17-28, but they’ve got the pieces to dominate a matchup like this. Ball returned to the starting lineup Thursday and posted 16 points with seven assists in a blowout win over Orlando. That’s the kind of performance that signals he’s past whatever shooting struggles he dealt with coming off the bench earlier. Miller’s been scorching—20-plus points in five straight games with averages of 20.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 3.5 assists in January. Knueppel’s another weapon at 19.0 points per game, giving Charlotte three guys who can create their own shot. The Hornets are 10-15 on the road but 7-13 at home, which isn’t great, but they’re more comfortable in their building when they can control pace. Mason Plumlee’s out until mid-February following groin surgery, but that’s a third-string center issue that doesn’t affect the primary rotation. The real advantage here is shot creation. Charlotte can rotate Ball, Miller, and Knueppel through actions and keep Washington’s defense scrambling. That’s a massive edge when you’re facing a team that struggles to score consistently.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to offensive initiation and how many clean looks each team can generate over 95-100 possessions. Washington’s missing the one player who could consistently break down Charlotte’s defense, and that forces them into contested jumpers and low-percentage attempts. Sarr can punish mismatches inside, but Charlotte can load up on him without worrying about kick-out threes to elite shooters. George can space the floor, but he’s not a guy who’s going to create 15 points off the bounce. The Hornets, meanwhile, can run Ball in pick-and-roll, let Miller attack closeouts, and use Knueppel as a secondary creator when defenses overcommit. That’s three different ways to generate offense, and Washington doesn’t have the personnel to consistently disrupt all three. The pace won’t be breakneck—neither team is elite in transition—but Charlotte’s halfcourt execution should be significantly cleaner. Over the course of 95 possessions, that efficiency gap adds up. If Charlotte’s shooting even league-average percentages on open looks, they should be able to pull away in the second half as Washington’s offense stalls out.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m laying the 10.5 with Charlotte. This is about roster construction and shot creation, and Washington simply doesn’t have enough without Young. The Wizards are 4-18 on the road because they can’t sustain offense away from home, and nothing about this matchup suggests they’ll suddenly find rhythm against a Hornets team that can rotate three legitimate scorers. Miller’s probable tag shouldn’t scare you off—he’s been playing through the ankle issue and averaging over 20 points in January. Ball’s back in the starting lineup and looked comfortable in Thursday’s win. The main risk is Charlotte playing down to the competition and letting Washington hang around with garbage-time buckets, but even then, the Hornets have enough offensive firepower to extend leads in the third quarter. The 10.5 is high for a matchup between two struggling teams, but the gap in creation talent justifies it. Washington’s going to struggle to crack 105 points, and Charlotte should comfortably reach 115-120 if they’re executing. That’s your margin.
BASH’S BEST BET: Hornets -10.5 for 2 units.
