The Setup: Wizards at Bulls
The Bulls are laying 12.5 points against a Wizards team that’s sitting at 1-14 and just got absolutely demolished 140-110 in Toronto. I’m talking about a Washington squad that’s lost 14 of 15 games and is now walking into the United Center on Friday night without their leading scorer Alexandre Sarr, who’s averaging 18.3 points and 8.2 boards. The books are begging you to take Chicago here, and I get it—the Wizards look like they couldn’t beat a G-League team right now. But 12.5 is a massive number in the NBA, and we’ve got a Bulls team that just got boat-raced themselves, losing 143-107 to Miami at home. That’s a 36-point beatdown on their own floor. The market’s telling you Chicago bounces back big, but I’ve seen this movie before. When everyone’s piling on the favorite after both teams got embarrassed, that’s exactly the spot where the dog keeps it closer than expected.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: November 22, 2025, 8:00 ET
Venue: United Center
Spread: Chicago Bulls -12.5 (-110) | Washington Wizards +12.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Bulls -850 | Wizards +553
Total: Over/Under 243.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Look, I understand why this number is sitting at 12.5. The Wizards are the worst team in basketball right now with a 1-14 record, sitting dead last in the Eastern Conference at 15th. They’re 0-6 at home and 1-8 on the road, so there’s no refuge anywhere for this squad. Meanwhile, Chicago sits at 8-7 and is a respectable 5-2 at the United Center. The Bulls are 9th in the East and playing at home where they’ve been solid. The oddsmakers set this line knowing that Washington just got torched for 140 points and is missing their top player in Sarr, plus AJ Johnson and Marvin Bagley III. That’s three rotation pieces gone. But here’s what the market’s not accounting for—Chicago just suffered their own humiliation, getting throttled by 36 points at home to Miami. The Heat dropped 143 on them, and it was the fourth time Miami has topped 140 points this season. That’s not a defensive identity you want to hang your hat on. The Bulls are dealing with their own injury issues too, with Dalen Terry and Matas Buzelis both out after getting hurt in that Miami disaster. When you’ve got two teams coming off absolute shellackings, the double-digit spread starts looking a lot wider than it should.
Wizards Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Washington is in full tank mode whether they admit it or not. At 1-14, they’re on pace for one of the worst seasons in NBA history. But let’s talk about what they’re actually putting on the floor. Without Sarr, who’s been their most productive player at 18.3 PPG and 8.2 RPG, the offensive load falls on KyShawn George and CJ McCollum. George has been surprisingly productive at 16.5 PPG, 5.9 RPG, and 4.7 APG, showing some real playmaking ability. McCollum is chipping in 16.4 PPG, though his assist numbers at 3.3 per game suggest he’s more of a scorer than a facilitator at this stage. The problem is depth. With Bagley and Johnson also out, the Wizards are running on fumes. That 140-110 loss to Toronto wasn’t just bad—it was a 30-point beatdown where they had no answers defensively. They’re 0-6 at home, which tells you they can’t even protect their own building. But at 1-8 on the road, they’ve actually won more away from home than at home, which is bizarre but tells you something about their mentality when expectations are zero.
Bulls Breakdown: The Other Side
Chicago’s got talent, no question. Coby White is having a breakout season at 26.0 PPG and 7.5 APG, establishing himself as a legitimate lead guard. Josh Giddey is flirting with triple-double territory every night at 20.6 PPG, 9.9 RPG, and 9.6 APG—those are All-Star caliber numbers. Ayo Dosunmu provides another scoring punch at 16.2 PPG, giving them three legitimate offensive weapons. The Bulls are 8-7, which is respectable, and they’re 5-2 at home where they should have every advantage. But let’s talk about that Miami game for a second. Getting beaten 143-107 at home is inexcusable. That’s not just losing—that’s getting your soul taken. The Heat had six players in double figures, and the Bulls looked completely lost defensively. Now they’re dealing with injuries to Terry and Buzelis, both of whom got hurt in that game. Isaac Okoro is questionable with a back issue. This isn’t a team firing on all cylinders right now. They’re 3-5 on the road, which shows they struggle away from the United Center, but even at home they just got embarrassed.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to one simple question: Can the Bulls regain their defensive identity after getting torched for 143? Chicago is 5-2 at home for a reason—they typically defend better at the United Center. But Washington, despite being terrible, has actually been more competitive on the road at 1-8 than at home at 0-6. That’s a weird split that suggests they play with less pressure away from their own building. The pace and tempo here will be critical. The total is set at 243.5, which is massive and suggests the books expect a shootout. But I’m not convinced we get there. Both teams just got demolished and might come out playing tighter, more conservative basketball. The Bulls need to restore some confidence defensively, and the Wizards know they can’t run with Chicago’s firepower. Sharp money knows what’s up here—12.5 is a huge number, and while Chicago should win, covering that spread requires them to win by 13 or more. That means they need to be up big late and not let Washington score garbage-time points. With both teams dealing with injuries and coming off brutal losses, I’m not confident Chicago has the killer instinct to put this one away by double digits.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m hammering Wizards +12.5 before this number moves. Look, Washington is awful—I’m not arguing that. But 12.5 points is a lot of cushion, and Chicago just proved they’re not some dominant defensive team that’s going to blow people out. The Bulls gave up 143 at home three days ago. They’re dealing with their own injury issues and confidence problems. The Wizards have nothing to lose and actually play better on the road than at home, which is bizarre but true based on their 1-8 road record versus 0-6 home record. This is exactly the spot where Chicago wins but doesn’t cover. They’ll be up 8-10 points late, Washington will hit some meaningless buckets, and we’ll cash this ticket. I’m putting 2 units on Wizards +12.5 with full confidence. The market’s disrespecting how hard it is to cover double-digit spreads when both teams are coming off embarrassing losses. Vegas wants you to lay the points with the home favorite, but I’m taking the massive cushion with the dog all day long.
