San Francisco at Cleveland Play
We’re getting to the part of the year where an extra factor has to be added to your handicapping — incentive.
Incentive is easy to figure out for teams that are fighting for playoff spots. It’s the teams that are out of the postseason that you have to consider — The Quit Factor.
“Playing for pride” is a nice sentiment, but the reality is some players quit as individuals, and some teams quit on their coach, hoping he’s shown the door by the owners.
San Francisco is tied for second place in the division with Seattle. They’re one game behind the Seahawks in the loss column, and both chasing the first-place Rams for first place and/or a wildcard spot, so no questioning the incentive on their side.
Cleveland is another story though.
At 3-8 they’re already out of the playoffs, so how hard will they be playing this week?
I can’t do a breakdown of every position but I can on the most important one — QB.
Shedeur Sanders is getting his second start of the season, and his career. And it’s his first start at home in Cleveland, so there’ll be no need to question the incentive here.
His ability is a whole other question though.
He did okay in his first start, but it was at the lowly Vegas Raiders so it’s not really much to brag about.
His QB line was decent.
He completed 11 of 20 passes for 209 yards.
He had one TD and one INT.
His QB rating was a slightly above-average 87.3.
I don’t usually give much thought to interceptions when I’m researching a game — it’s a tough category to handicap. But I’m approaching this game differently. I’m counting on at least three interceptions, hopefully getting me at least one pick six or close to it, leaving me in good field position-wise.
Sanders only threw one last week, but that was on the Rd. At home, I expect there’ll be a little bit of extra pressure on him to do well, which will hopefully lead him to forcing the ball into tight coverage.
I also expect Cleveland to be behind on the scoreboard, another factor that leads me to believe he’ll get picked off forcing one in the second half.
For those who think there’s more pressure on a QB on the Rd, in front of a hostile crowd, it’s a valid opinion. But there’s also extra pressure to do well in front of the home fans — and even more so when you’re fighting for your job and trying to prove you’re worthy of playing in the pros, like Sanders.
The game against the Raiders was Sanders’ first start, but his second appearance of the season.
His first one was at home in Cleveland.
He threw 16 passes.
He completed just four of them.
He had zero touchdowns, but . . . one INT.
His quarterback rating was 2.2.
No, that’s not a typo. His QB rating was 2.2.
AT HOME.
So yes, there will be added pressure on him to do well in front of the home folks and make up for that last game they saw him in.
This brings us to Brock Purdy, the other QB.
Brock Purdy, Mr. Irrelevant.
Brock Purdy, the guy who threw THREE interceptions at home last week.
Brock Purdy, the guy who has thrown MULTIPLE interceptions in THREE of his four games this season.
So yeah, I’m factoring INT’s into my handicapping of this game.
I’m looking for at least one each, and a multiple INT game from one of them, if not both.
Yes, it might be a Snow Game.
But that’s already factored into the line — a line that’s starting to drop as Joe Public automatically assumes Snow = Under.
I’m thinking of two games played in snow last season.
In November, a Pittsburgh game had a final score of 24-19, a combined 43 points.
In December, a Buffalo game had a final score of 35-10, combined 45 points.
Both games well over the total in this one.
Pittsburgh’s opponent that day — Cleveland.
Buffalo’s opponent that day — San Fran.
Relevant? Hardly.
But what a coincidence.
What had me looking at this matchup in the first place?
One of my two handicapping models for picking totals, T1, says this game will go Under.
T1 has a record of 12-18 Ov/Un, including a very Fade-able 4-9, 69% on Unders.
When to Buy Recommendation
The total opened at 39′.
It’s already down to 35, thanks to the weather and Joe Public.
I see one or two houses already dropped to 34′, but I don’t expect it to get much lower. And with a five-point middle available for early buyers there’s very likely going to be a buyback to the Over by kickoff.
Then again, if the weather keeps getting worse, who knows, it might get to 33. I’ll have this game up on my screen throughout the day, and will monitor it closely while I wait to buy it.
Recap
2-1
Record
10-5
Review
Hit with Tennessee and the Over, took an ugly L after Philadelphia blew a 21-0 lead.
Week 14, and I’m still clinging to 67% in my article picks.
Down two units in my forum plays, hoping to get at least one of those back this week.
I’ll post up with the final number I get in SF/Cle, as well as any bets I add (a possible prop play on Sanders or Purdy to throw an INT is a definite possibility for an added play. Going to check the prices right now.)
