Chicago Bears vs Cincinnati Bengals – Week 9 NFL Picks
Chicago’s top-ranked red-zone defense faces the NFL’s worst scoring defense in a matchup that sets up perfectly for the Bears to control tempo and cover the number.
Game Information Dashboard
Date: Sunday, November 2, 2025
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
Odds: Chicago Bears -3 | Total: 52.5
The Rundown
The market’s early reaction highlights the difference between perception and reality. Chicago opened as 2.5-point road favorites and quickly moved to -3, crossing a key number. That move signals sharp confidence in the Bears despite their Week 8 stumble against Baltimore. Efficiency data backs that sentiment. Chicago generates 58.2 yards per point compared to Cincinnati’s 67.8 — a meaningful gap across a dozen drives. The Bears’ four-game winning streak wasn’t fluky; they ranked seventh in defensive DVOA during that span and allowed only 19 points per game. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has surrendered 31.6 points per game — dead last in the NFL — with one of the least efficient defenses in football. Joe Flacco’s recent hot streak has masked those issues, but regression signs are flashing. The high total at 52.5 reflects offensive perception, yet the true value lies with the more complete team laying a short number.
Why Chicago Has the Edge
Chicago’s time-of-possession advantage is a key separator. The Bears average 31.2 minutes of control per game compared to Cincinnati’s 28.1 — roughly two extra possessions. That means more opportunities against the league’s worst scoring defense. Pair that with Chicago’s 2.31 points per drive (12th in NFL) versus Cincinnati’s 2.45 points allowed per drive (32nd), and the math favors the road team. The Bears convert 44.2% of drives into points, while the Bengals manage just 38.1%, creating a steady edge throughout four quarters.
The Numbers That Matter
- Points Per Drive: Chicago 2.31 (12th) vs Cincinnati 2.07 (20th)
- Yards Per Play: Chicago 5.4 vs Cincinnati 5.7
- Success Rate: Chicago 46.8% vs Cincinnati 44.2%
- Drive Success Rate: Chicago 44.2% vs Cincinnati 38.1%
- Explosive Play Rate: Chicago 12.4% vs Cincinnati 14.8%
- Three-and-Out Rate: Chicago 22.1% vs Cincinnati 25.7%
Defensively, the Bears’ edge widens. They allow just 1.89 points per drive (8th) while the Bengals give up 2.45 (32nd). In the red zone, Chicago’s defense has been elite — allowing touchdowns on only 47.8% of trips, the best rate in the NFL. Cincinnati, by contrast, gives up touchdowns on 68.2% of red-zone possessions. The Bengals’ low three-and-out rate (15.2%, 31st) keeps their defense on the field, and Chicago’s 16 takeaways in seven games create short fields and momentum swings. Across full-game volume, those efficiency advantages project to roughly a 6–9-point margin.
Market Analysis & Line Movement
The line opened at Bears -2.5 and was quickly bet to -3 as sharp money recognized value. That movement through the key number is notable, removing the push protection on field-goal outcomes. Early splits showed 58% of tickets but 71% of handle on Chicago — larger bettors backing the Bears. The total has held steady at 52.5, showing the market’s divide on tempo and scoring. With Joe Flacco questionable, any downgrade to a backup would further depress Cincinnati’s offensive output. Overall, professionals view Chicago as the more balanced roster at a fair price, while casual bettors chase recent scoring outbursts.
Head-to-Head Efficiency Matchups
| Metric | Chicago | Cincinnati | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Drive | 2.31 | 2.07 | Chicago |
| Success Rate | 46.8% | 44.2% | Chicago |
| Explosive Play Rate | 12.4% | 14.8% | Cincinnati |
| Drive Success Rate | 44.2% | 38.1% | Chicago |
| Three-and-Out Rate | 22.1% | 25.7% | Chicago |
| Red Zone TD Rate (Defense) | 47.8% | 68.2% | Chicago |
| Turnover Rate | 1 per 26 plays | 1 per 35 plays | Chicago |
Situational metrics again favor the Bears. They win early downs (52.1% vs 48.7%) and rank 9th in two-minute efficiency compared to Cincinnati’s 24th. Their pace generates about 1.2 extra drives per game, and they convert 78.9% of goal-to-go chances (71.4% for CIN). Defensively, Chicago allows 2.1 explosive plays per game versus 3.4 for the Bengals — a major difference in expected scoring volatility.
The Bottom Line & Predictions
All indicators point toward Chicago’s balance and efficiency carrying the day. During their four-game win streak, the Bears allowed only 4.8 yards per play and ranked 7th in DVOA defense. Cincinnati, meanwhile, has yielded 6.1 yards per play over their last four outings. Caleb Williams has handled hostile environments before, and against the league’s leakiest defense, this sets up as a bounce-back spot. Cincinnati’s offensive metrics remain inflated by a single 39-point outburst against the winless Jets. Flacco’s lack of mobility could be exposed by a Bears pass rush that pressures on 24.8% of dropbacks.
Prediction
Final Score: Chicago Bears 28, Cincinnati Bengals 21
Best Bets
- ⭐⭐⭐ Chicago Bears -3 (-105) — Superior efficiency profile and red-zone edge.
- ⭐⭐ Under 52.5 (-115) — Sustained drives and clock control temper total scoring.
- ⭐ Caleb Williams Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+110) — Faces a bottom-ranked red-zone defense allowing nearly 70% touchdown conversions.
Game Flow Projection: Chicago sets tempo early, forces Cincinnati into long-yardage downs, and capitalizes on field position. If the Bears maintain ~2.3 PPD while holding the Bengals under 2.2, they clear -3 comfortably in a game that stays modest on the scoreboard.
