The line says Green Bay is better, but the total says slow. Chad Fox’s handicapping targets the Under as the most logical total pick for this NFC North clash.
Opening Setup
This is one of those games where the betting line tells a different story than the standings. Chicago walks in at 9-3 holding the top seed in the NFC, yet they’re getting almost a touchdown at Lambeau Field. For newer bettors, this is a reminder that records don’t always match how these teams stack up on a play-to-play basis.
Chicago has been winning with a simple formula: take the ball away, run the ball well, and avoid big mistakes. Green Bay, on the other hand, hasn’t always closed games, but the underlying performance is stronger than their record suggests. That’s why the spread sits where it does.
The real question is whether Chicago can keep leaning on their strengths long enough to stay within striking distance, or whether Green Bay’s efficiency finally shows up on the scoreboard.
Game Details Box
Date: Sunday, December 7
Time: 4:25 PM ET
Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay
TV: FOX
Current Betting Lines
| Bet Type | Line | Juice |
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Green Bay -6.5 | -115 |
| Total Points | Over/Under 44.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Green Bay -300 / Chicago +250 | – |
Quick Translation: If you’re backing Green Bay, they need to win by a full touchdown to cover. If you like Chicago, you’re betting they either win outright or keep it close. The total of 44.5 is simply asking: do these teams combine for 45 points or more?
Line Movement Thoughts
We don’t have the full open-to-now movement, but the current number tells you Green Bay is getting respect despite the difference in records. Books aren’t ignoring Chicago’s 9-3 start — they’re just weighing Green Bay’s consistency on longer drives and how this matchup tends to play at Lambeau.
Key Matchups
The biggest one is Green Bay’s ability to extend drives versus Chicago’s ability to make timely stops. The Packers have been one of the league’s best teams at staying on the field on third down, while the Bears rely more on big defensive plays than down-to-down dominance.
On the other side, Chicago’s rushing attack is the engine of their offense. If they can get that going early, they can shorten the game, limit possessions, and avoid falling behind — which is where Green Bay tends to take control.
Why Chicago Can Hang Around
- Turnovers matter — Chicago is one of the best in the league at creating takeaways, which is how they’ve won so many tight games.
- Clock control — Their run game keeps the defense rested and forces Green Bay to be efficient with fewer drives.
- Division familiarity — These matchups often play tighter than the spread suggests.
One hot game doesn’t move our numbers. Fade inflated spreads with our NFL predictions.
Betting Thoughts
Lean: Chicago +6.5 — You’re getting a 9-3 team with a style built to keep games close. They run the ball well, take care of it, and force turnovers. Those traits usually help underdogs hang around, especially in division games.
The Under 44.5 is also reasonable if you expect Chicago to slow the pace and Green Bay to rely on longer, methodical drives.
What to Watch
- How Jordan Love looks physically — shoulder injuries can affect timing and deep shots.
- Chicago’s run game early — if they control first downs, they control the pace.
- Turnovers — Chicago’s biggest advantage comes from flipping fields.
- Weather — Lambeau in December can always shift game flow.
Bottom Line
Green Bay grades out as the stronger team drive-to-drive, but Chicago’s style creates close finishes. If you’re taking points, the Bears offer a profile that usually keeps games inside the number. They may not outgain Green Bay, but their formula — takeaways, run game, mistake-free football — travels well.
Final Score Prediction: Packers 23, Bears 20.
