Bears vs Vikings Preview: Week 11 NFC North Revenge Game
Chad Fox breaks down this NFC North rematch where the Bears seek revenge after their Week 1 loss to Minnesota. He explains the line movement, key matchups, and why this could be a value spot for Chicago backers in Week 11.
Opening Setup
Here’s what we’ve got brewing in Minneapolis — a classic divisional rematch with some serious bite. The Bears are rolling into Minnesota looking for payback after that Week 1 heartbreaker, and the storylines couldn’t be more compelling. For newcomers to NFL betting, this is exactly the kind of game where emotions and recent trends can create real value if you know what to look for.
Chicago has completely flipped the script since starting 0-2, winning six of seven games with Caleb Williams showing he’s got that clutch gene. Meanwhile, Minnesota has gone the opposite direction, dropping four of six after that early-season optimism. The crazy part is how different these teams look now compared to three months ago — and that’s where smart money finds its edge.
The market is still giving Minnesota respect as a home favorite, but the underlying numbers tell a different story. When you see teams trending in opposite directions like this, it’s time to pay attention to what the oddsmakers might be missing.
Game Details Box
Date: Sunday, November 16
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Location: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis
TV: FOX
Current Betting Lines
| Bet Type | Line | Juice |
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Minnesota Vikings -3 | -110 |
| Total Points | Over/Under 48.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Vikings -180 / Bears +155 | – |
Quick Translation: Minnesota needs to win by 4+ points to cover the spread. The total means you’re betting whether both teams combine for more or less than 48.5 points. The moneyline shows Minnesota as a solid favorite — you’d risk $180 to win $100 on the Vikings, while $100 wins $155 on Chicago straight up.
Line Movement Analysis
The opening lines had this game closer to Vikings -2.5, but we’ve seen it creep up to -3 at most books. That’s usually a sign of public money flowing toward the home favorite — recreational bettors love taking Minnesota at home in a dome. However, the total has actually dropped from an opening 49 to 48.5, which tells me sharps are expecting a grittier game than the market initially thought. When you see “reverse line movement” like this — where the line moves against the popular bet — it’s often because professional money is taking the other side.
Key Matchups
The biggest storyline here is Caleb Williams versus Minnesota’s secondary. The Vikings defense just held Lamar Jackson to 176 passing yards last week, but Baltimore still found ways to score. Chicago’s offense has been clicking lately, averaging 26.3 points per game over their last six contests. Williams has 7 touchdown passes and 3 rushing TDs during the Bears’ hot streak, showing he’s not just managing games anymore.
On the flip side, Minnesota’s offense has been inconsistent. J.J. McCarthy has thrown for just 4 touchdowns versus 5 interceptions over the Vikings’ last four games, and their red zone efficiency sits at a mediocre 52.4% this season. When a young quarterback struggles in scoring situations against a Bears defense that’s gotten healthier, that creates problems.
Why Smart Bettors Like Chicago
- Momentum and Clutch Factor — Williams leads the NFL in game-winning drives and fourth-quarter comebacks this season.
- Home/Road Splits — Bears are 3-2 ATS on the road while Vikings are just 1-3 ATS at home.
- Recent History — These teams played a 3-point game in Week 1, and Chicago is much improved since then.
Betting Recommendations
Primary Bet: Chicago Bears +3 (-110) — This line feels like it’s giving too much credit to Minnesota’s early-season success and not enough respect to Chicago’s recent surge. The Bears have shown they can win close games on the road, and getting three points in what should be a toss-up matchup provides excellent value.
Secondary Consideration: Bears moneyline at +155 offers solid upside if you believe Chicago wins outright. The price is right for a team that’s proven it can execute in crunch time.
What to Watch For
- Live betting opportunities if Bears fall behind early — they’ve shown comeback ability
- Weather conditions could affect the total, though this is a dome game
- How Minnesota’s defense handles Chicago’s improved running game with D’Andre Swift
- J.J. McCarthy’s decision-making under pressure in a must-win divisional game
Bottom Line Summary
The market is still treating Minnesota like the team that started hot, but the Bears have clearly been the better squad over the past six weeks. Chicago has found their identity with Williams making clutch throws and their defense getting healthier. Minnesota needs this game more, but needing it and getting it are two different things in the NFL.
Final Score Prediction: Chicago Bears 24, Minnesota Vikings 21.
