Joe Burrow is back, changing the game’s math. Chad Fox reveals his high-value prediction and why Bengals +5 is the clear best bet on Sunday.
Setting the Stage
If you’re just getting comfortable with NFL betting, this is a great game to study. On the surface, it looks simple: Buffalo is 8–4 and pushing for the division, while Cincinnati is 4–8 and fighting to keep its season alive. Most people see those records and immediately lean Bills.
But there’s a big wrinkle the record doesn’t show — Joe Burrow is back. When he’s healthy, the Bengals’ offense looks very different than the version we saw when he was out or limited. Their Thanksgiving win over Baltimore was a reminder of that. So this isn’t just 8–4 vs 4–8; it’s “steady contender at home” vs “dangerous underdog with an elite quarterback again.”
Game Details
Date: Sunday, December 7
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Location: Highmark Stadium, Buffalo
TV: FOX
Current Betting Lines
| Bet Type | Line | Juice |
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Buffalo -5 | -110 |
| Total Points | Over/Under 52.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Buffalo -270 / Cincinnati +220 | – |
Quick translation for newer bettors: With Buffalo -5, Bills backers need them to win by 6 or more points to cover the spread. If Cincinnati loses by 4 or fewer — or wins the game — Bengals +5 tickets win. The total of 52.5 is a bet on whether both teams combine for 53 or more (the over) or 52 or fewer (the under). On the moneyline, you’re risking $270 to win $100 on Buffalo just to win the game, or risking $100 to win $220 if you think Cincinnati can pull the upset.
What the Line Is Telling You
A 5-point spread is interesting. It’s more than a field goal, so oddsmakers clearly see Buffalo as the better team right now, especially at home. But it’s not up at -7 or higher, which would signal “clear mismatch.”
The fact that Cincinnati is catching only 5 points on the road with a 4–8 record is a quiet sign of respect. Books aren’t treating them like a typical 4–8 team. Burrow’s presence is baked into this number — even if the season-long stats don’t fully show what this offense looks like with him healthy.
Matchup in Simple Terms
Buffalo’s side: The Bills have been one of the more reliable offenses this season. They move the ball, convert third downs, and usually protect their home field. Their overall scoring and efficiency numbers reflect a team that can win in the high 20s most weeks.
Cincinnati’s side: The Bengals’ season-long profile is dragged down by the games Burrow missed or played at less than 100%. With him back and looking more like himself, Cincinnati’s offense is closer to what we’ve seen in past playoff years — efficient passing, long drives, and the ability to hit big plays when needed.
On defense, Buffalo has had some shaky stretches, giving up more points than you’d expect from a contender. Cincinnati’s defense, meanwhile, has struggled to keep opponents in check for four quarters. That’s part of why we’re looking at a higher total in the low 50s — both offenses can score, and both defenses have question marks.
Why Some Bettors Lean Bengals +5
Even though Buffalo is the favorite and at home, there are a few reasons people look toward the points with Cincinnati:
- Quarterback edge in this spot: A healthy Joe Burrow gives the Bengals a chance to keep things close against almost anyone, especially in big December games.
- Motivation: Cincinnati is essentially in “must-win” mode the rest of the way. Buffalo wants to improve playoff positioning; the Bengals need wins just to have a shot.
- Matchup history: Recent meetings between these teams have been competitive, and Cincinnati has shown it can go toe-to-toe when its offense is right.
That doesn’t guarantee a cover, but it helps explain why this isn’t a double-digit spread despite the gap in records.
Chad’s Favorite Angle
Leaning: Bengals +5 (-110)
If you’re looking at the spread, taking the points with Cincinnati is the more interesting side for me. Buffalo deserves to be favored at home, but a number like -5 leaves plenty of room for the Bengals to lose a tight game and still cover.
With Burrow back, Cincinnati’s offense is capable of trading scores, and Buffalo’s defense has been leaky enough at times to allow long drives and explosive plays. In that kind of back-and-forth game, underdogs in this range often stay within one possession.
How About the Total?
The total at 52.5 is on the higher side, and it makes sense with two capable passing attacks. Both teams can score in bunches if the game opens up, but there’s also a chance one side leans a little more on ball control to protect its defense.
If you’re newer to betting, totals in the 50s usually require a fairly clean game — not a lot of long empty drives, not too many stalled red-zone trips, and at least one team getting into the high 20s or 30s. With that many moving parts, I’d treat the spread as the simpler entry point in this matchup.
What to Watch For
- Tee Higgins’ status: If he’s on the field, Cincinnati’s passing game is much tougher to cover. Two dangerous receivers change the Bills’ defensive options.
- Buffalo’s offensive line health: If they’re missing key pieces up front, that can slow down an otherwise efficient offense.
- Weather in Buffalo: Any late changes in wind or precipitation can affect the passing game and the total.
- Early game script: If the Bengals start fast and force Buffalo to chase, it can turn into a more back-and-forth game that favors the underdog staying inside the number.
Final Thoughts
On paper, Buffalo is the more stable team with the better record and home field edge. But Cincinnati with a healthy Joe Burrow doesn’t really play like a 4–8 team, and that’s why this spread isn’t larger.
If you’re still learning how to read numbers, this is a good example of the market quietly respecting a dangerous underdog. You don’t have to overthink it — you’re simply asking whether Burrow and the Bengals can keep this to a one-score game on the road.
Final Score Prediction: Bills 27, Bengals 24
