Cincinnati opens the 2025 season as road favorites in Cleveland with Joe Burrow leading a fully healthy offense against Joe Flacco and the Browns. Handicapper Chad Fox breaks down the key stats and angles and gives out his recommended bets for this Week 1 game (point spread pick below)
The Setup: A Classic AFC North Battle
Week 1 of the NFL season kicks off with a rivalry game that could set the tone for both teams’ 2025 campaigns. The Cincinnati Bengals travel to Cleveland to face the Browns in what’s always a hard-fought AFC North divisional matchup.
If you’re new to NFL betting, divisional games are often unpredictable because these teams know each other so well – they play twice every year, and familiarity can lead to some surprising results. That said, there’s a clear talent gap here that the betting market is recognizing.
Game Details:
When: Sunday, September 7, 2025, 1:00 PM ET
Where: Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland
TV: FOX
Weather: Perfect conditions – mid-70s with minimal wind
Current Betting Lines (What the Numbers Mean)
Here’s what sportsbooks are currently offering:
| Market | Cincinnati Bengals | Cleveland Browns |
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | -6 (-115) | +6 (-105) |
| Moneyline | -275 | +220 |
| Total Points | Over 46.5 (-110) | Under 46.5 (-110) |
Quick Translation:
• Cincinnati is favored by 6 points (they need to win by 7+ to “cover”)
• The total is 46.5 points (bet whether both teams combined score more or less)
• Moneyline is just picking the winner straight up
Why the Line Opened and How It’s Moved
The betting market opened Cincinnati as 6-point road favorites, which immediately caught attention. Six points is significant – it’s saying the Bengals are clearly the better team, even playing on the road.
Here’s what’s interesting: even though 62% of public bettors are backing Cleveland (makes sense, they’re the home underdog), the line has held steady at 6. In fact, the “juice” (the price you pay to make the bet) moved from -110 to -115 on Cincinnati, meaning you have to risk more to win the same amount.
What this tells us: Professional bettors – the ones who move lines with large bets – are comfortable laying 6 points with Cincinnati. When the public backs one side but the line doesn’t move that direction, it usually means the “smart money” is on the other side.
The Quarterback Matchup: Elite vs. Veteran
This game really comes down to the massive difference at quarterback.
Cincinnati: Joe Burrow is Playing at an Elite Level
Joe Burrow is simply one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL right now. In 2024, he was nothing short of spectacular:
4,918 Passing Yards (LED NFL)
43 Passing TDs (LED NFL)
92.8 PFF Grade (BEST IN NFL)
75.6 PFF Grade Under Pressure (BEST)
The crazy part? Despite Burrow’s incredible individual season, Cincinnati still went 9-8 and missed the playoffs. Their defense was terrible (allowed 25.5 points per game), but Burrow kept them competitive in almost every game.
Cleveland: Joe Flacco Provides Experience but Limited Upside
Cleveland is starting 40-year-old Joe Flacco, who actually has some history with this organization. He came in mid-season during 2023 and went 4-1, helping Cleveland make the playoffs. That’s why they brought him back.
But let’s be realistic – Flacco is a stopgap solution. At 40, he’s not the mobile quarterback he once was, and Cleveland’s offensive line allowed 38 sacks last season. When you combine an older, less mobile QB with protection issues against Cincinnati’s pass rush, that’s concerning.
Why Smart Bettors Like Cincinnati
Professional bettors seem to be backing Cincinnati for several reasons:
Cincinnati Advantages:
- Talent Gap: The difference between Burrow and Flacco is enormous
- Supporting Cast: Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are both healthy
- Road Performance: Went 4-2 in final six road games of 2024
- Offensive Weapons: One of the best receiver duos in the NFL
Cleveland Concerns:
- Defensive Losses: Key players departed in offseason
- QB Age: 40-year-old Flacco behind shaky O-line
- Limited Mobility: Can’t extend plays like younger QBs
- Offensive Limitations: Fewer weapons than Cincinnati
The Betting Recommendation: Keep It Simple
Best Bet: Cincinnati Bengals -6 (-115)
Here’s the straightforward case: Cincinnati has a significantly better quarterback, better receivers, and a more explosive offense. Cleveland’s defense isn’t what it used to be, and they’re starting a 40-year-old quarterback behind a shaky offensive line.
The line held at 6 points despite public money favoring Cleveland, which tells us professional bettors see value in laying the points with Cincinnati.
Also Worth Considering: Joe Burrow Over 274.5 Passing Yards
Cleveland’s secondary lost key players, and Burrow averaged over 300 yards per game when his top receivers were healthy. This number seems low given the matchup.
What to Watch For
If you’re watching the game, here are the key factors:
- Early pressure on Burrow: If Cleveland can get to Burrow early, it could change the game flow
- Cleveland’s first drive: If the Browns score first, you might get better live betting opportunities on Cincinnati
- Red zone efficiency: Cincinnati’s ability to turn drives into touchdowns rather than field goals will be crucial for covering 6 points
The Bottom Line
This line makes sense. Cincinnati is simply the better team with the better quarterback, even on the road. While divisional games can be tricky, the talent gap here is significant enough that the Bengals should be able to cover 6 points.
The smart money agrees – and in NFL betting, it often pays to follow the professionals rather than the public.
Final Prediction: Cincinnati 28, Cleveland 17
