Crew’s Bills vs Broncos picks and predictions focus on playoff quarterback experience, defensive injuries, red zone efficiency, and how Buffalo’s offensive structure stresses Denver in the Divisional Round.
Game Information
Date: Saturday, January 17, 2026
Time: 4:30 PM ET
Venue: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Odds: Denver -1.5 | Total: 46.5
The Big Picture
At first glance, this matchup looks like a classic “home favorite versus dangerous road team” playoff setup. Denver owns the No. 1 seed, the altitude, and a defense that ranks near the top of every surface-level metric. Buffalo arrives as the battle-tested six seed with postseason scars — and Josh Allen.
The challenge in pricing this game is separating record from resistance. Denver finished 14-3, but much of that résumé was built against sub-.500 competition and injury-depleted opponents. Buffalo, meanwhile, has lived in high-leverage environments for a month just to get here. That contrast matters in the Divisional Round, where efficiency and experience tend to outweigh optics.
The Schedule Reality Check
Since their signature win over Philadelphia in early October, Denver’s remaining schedule tilted heavily toward the league’s lower tier. The Broncos went 11-1 down the stretch, but many of those wins came by one score and against teams starting backup quarterbacks or missing key offensive linemen.
The most telling example was the 18–15 win over Houston, a game in which Denver trailed late before rallying against a Texans offense led by Davis Mills after C.J. Stroud exited with a concussion — all while Houston was missing its best offensive tackle. That type of win counts in the standings, but it inflates defensive metrics and masks fragility when facing an elite quarterback.
The Quarterback Divide: Experience vs Environment
This game ultimately pivots on the quarterback position. Josh Allen enters his 15th career playoff game with a postseason profile that remains nearly unmatched: 27 passing touchdowns against just four interceptions, elite efficiency under pressure, and a proven ability to neutralize top-tier pass rushes with off-platform throws and designed movement.
Bo Nix has exceeded expectations in his first full season, particularly in close games. He has shown composure late and has accumulated one-score wins at an impressive rate. But this is his first exposure to a Divisional Round environment, against a defense that specializes in post-snap disguise and forces quarterbacks to win mentally as much as physically.
The experience gap doesn’t mean Denver can’t score — it means Buffalo is far less likely to self-destruct when protection breaks down or reads are cloudy. That distinction has outsized value in playoff football.
Buffalo’s Offensive Stress Points (Including Curtis Samuel)
Denver’s defense is elite at rushing the passer and tightening in the red zone, but it is not airtight structurally. One of its quiet pressure points has been coverage against tight ends and motion-based slot threats.
That’s where Buffalo’s personnel grouping matters. Dalton Kincaid is the primary target, but the return of Curtis Samuel adds an important secondary layer. Samuel is not a volume receiver — his impact is structural. His ability to align in the slot, motion pre-snap, and threaten horizontally forces Denver’s secondary to declare coverage early.
That early declaration benefits Josh Allen, particularly against a defense that prefers to rotate late and protect the middle. Samuel’s routes also test discipline. Against an aggressive, handsy secondary — and an officiating crew that consistently calls defensive holding and DPI — his presence creates hidden yardage that doesn’t show up in the box score but flips field position and extends drives.
In short, Samuel doesn’t replace targets; he widens windows. That matters for Kincaid, for Allen’s legs, and for Buffalo’s red-zone efficiency.
Red Zone Clash: Strength vs Strength
This is the most important battleground in the game. Buffalo ranks among the league’s best at converting red-zone trips into touchdowns, largely due to Allen’s mobility and their tight end usage. Denver, conversely, owns the league’s top red-zone defense, forcing field goals at an elite rate.
The tension here is amplified by Buffalo’s defensive injuries. With Jordan Poyer and Maxwell Hairston out, Denver’s offense doesn’t need to dominate — it needs to capitalize when Buffalo’s depth is tested. That dynamic tilts the total upward and narrows the margin for error on both sides.
Defensive Health & Game Environment
Buffalo’s injury report is the most significant counterweight to their experience edge. Losing veteran communication pieces in the secondary creates vulnerability against motion, play-action, and misdirection — all staples of Sean Payton’s offense.
Weather conditions are favorable for scoring, and altitude should not suppress the passing game. If Buffalo’s interior defenders are limited, Denver’s ground game can stay efficient enough to keep pressure on Allen to respond.
The Bottom Line & Final Positions
Prediction
Buffalo Bills 28, Denver Broncos 24
Best Bets
- ⭐⭐⭐ Buffalo Bills +1.5 — Quarterback experience and offensive efficiency outweigh Denver’s résumé built against lighter competition.
- ⭐⭐ Buffalo Moneyline — If Buffalo covers, they are live to win outright.
- ⭐⭐ Over 46.5 — Buffalo’s defensive injuries, favorable conditions, and red-zone efficiency on both sides point to points.
- ⭐ Dalton Kincaid Over Receiving Yards — Denver’s structure funnels volume to tight ends, especially with Samuel stressing coverage width.
