Buffalo Bills vs Cleveland Browns NFL Analysis & Free Picks for Week 16

Buffalo Bills vs Cleveland Browns — Week 16 NFL Picks & Predictions
The total has slipped through the key number of 42, reflecting the market’s growing skepticism of Cleveland’s ability to score. Rich Crew explores the market psychology and why the Bills’ “road under” trend—hitting at a 71% clip—is the primary angle for professional bettors this Sunday.

Game Information Dashboard

Date: Sunday, December 21, 2025
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, Ohio
Odds: Buffalo Bills -10.5 | Total: 41.5

The Rundown

The market opened Bills -10 and has inched to -10.5, which lines up with how bettors keep pricing Buffalo’s weekly floor — especially on the road. The scoring gap is obvious: Buffalo is putting up 29.4 points per game (#4) while Cleveland is down at 16.1 (#29). And the efficiency gap matches it — Buffalo’s 0.463 points per play (#5) versus Cleveland’s 0.262 (#30) is a pretty blunt difference.

The SBS Power Stats make the same point in a different language. Buffalo sits at 12.98 yards per point on offense, while Cleveland needs 16.37. That’s a real scoring-efficiency separation. Cleveland’s defense grades better at 11.77 yards per point allowed versus Buffalo’s 13.51, but the practical limiter here is still Cleveland’s offense with rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders. Over 11–12 drives, that offensive efficiency gap can realistically translate into a 10–14 point scoreboard edge.

The total has slipped from 42 down to 41.5, and that move looks more like a Cleveland-offense tax than anything Buffalo-specific. Sean McDermott’s record against rookie quarterbacks (9-3 since 2019, allowing 13.6 PPG) fits the same idea — and moving through 42 suggests sharper agreement on the Under than the Over.

Why Buffalo Has the Edge

Across the core efficiency categories, Buffalo checks more boxes. The Bills’ 6.0 yards per play (#5) against Cleveland’s 4.7 yards per play allowed (#4) is a strong-on-strong matchup, but Buffalo’s edge shows up most in the “keep-the-drive-alive” areas. Buffalo converts 45.98% of third downs (#4), while Cleveland allows 37.50% (#11). That gap matters because it creates extra snaps, extra red zone chances, and more clock control.

In the red zone, Buffalo has the cleaner profile: the Bills score touchdowns on 64.15% of trips (#8), and Cleveland allows 58.54% (#16). Then there’s the run game — Buffalo ranks #1 in rushing yards per game (158.5) and yards per carry (5.0). That’s a major pressure point when Cleveland is allowing 5.4 yards per carry.

Turnovers tilt Buffalo’s way as well. The Bills generate 1.3 takeaways per game, while Cleveland commits 1.4 giveaways per game. That +0.7 “expected” turnover edge per game is a big deal in a low-total environment because one extra possession can decide the total and the margin.

The Numbers That Matter

• Points Per Game: Buffalo 29.4 (rank 4) vs Cleveland 16.1 (rank 29)
• Yards Per Point (Power Stat): Buffalo 12.98 off / 13.51 def vs Cleveland 16.37 off / 11.77 def
• Points Per Play: Buffalo 0.463 vs Cleveland 0.262
• Yards Per Play: Buffalo 6.0 vs Cleveland 4.3
• 3rd Down Conversion %: Buffalo 45.98% vs Cleveland 31.63%
• Red Zone TD Scoring %: Buffalo 64.15% vs Cleveland 56.25%

The rushing gap jumps off the page. Buffalo is at 5.0 yards per carry (#2) while Cleveland sits at 3.8 (#29). That advantage lets Buffalo control pace and avoid long third downs. Cleveland’s pass offense ranks last in completion percentage (56.94%) and yards per attempt (5.6), which makes it hard to play catch-up if Buffalo gets a lead.

Buffalo’s 49.83% rush play percentage (#1) reinforces that they want to set the tone with the run, and Cleveland typically forces opponents into 52.40% pass situations. The problem is that Sanders’ profile doesn’t make it easy to punish that tendency. Buffalo also carries elite passing efficiency — 69.66% completions (#2) and 8.1 yards per pass (#3) — so if Cleveland overcommits to the run, Buffalo has answers.

Market Analysis & Line Movement

The move from -10 to -10.5 suggests the market leaning Buffalo without getting reckless. It’s also consistent with the recent form framing: Buffalo coming off an impressive comeback win over New England, while Cleveland is coming off a rough performance in Chicago. The market appears to be balancing Buffalo’s 4-3 ATS road mark with Cleveland’s 4-3 ATS at home — giving Buffalo the nod, but not pushing into a “must-lay” number.

The total move is cleaner: 42 down to 41.5, through the key number of 42. That’s the market acknowledging Cleveland’s offensive limitations. Buffalo road Unders (5-1-1, 71%) are the best road Under trend in the league, and Cleveland’s scoring profile has rarely cleared 20 points — with only one game over 29 points in their last eight.

From a key-number standpoint, -10.5 sits between 10 and 14, but Buffalo’s efficiency advantage still leaves a realistic path to a two-touchdown type result if they play clean.

Head-to-Head Efficiency Matchups

The grid points one way: Buffalo. Even small edges scale over a full game. The third-down gap keeps Buffalo on the field, and the red-zone edge helps them turn those drives into touchdowns instead of settling.

Cleveland’s defense has been good at limiting efficiency (4th in yards per play allowed at 4.7), but they’ve been more vulnerable on the key downs that decide totals and spreads — third down and the red zone. Buffalo being #1 in rush attempts per game (31.6) while still carrying elite passing efficiency creates a “pick-your-poison” problem for Cleveland.

Turnovers are also part of the handicap. Sanders has six interceptions in 138 attempts (4.3%), while Josh Allen has 10 picks in 412 attempts (2.4%). Add McDermott’s rookie-QB history, and it’s fair to expect Cleveland to have trouble sustaining offense consistently.

The Bottom Line & Predictions

Prediction

Buffalo Bills 26, Cleveland Browns 13

Best Bets

• ⭐⭐⭐ Under 41.5 (-110) — Buffalo’s road Under trend plus Cleveland’s offensive limitations create value. The move through 42 shows sharp agreement.
• ⭐⭐ Bills 1st Half -6 (-115) — Scripted drives and early efficiency favor Buffalo.

Game Flow Projection: Buffalo establishes control early through efficiency on both sides, taking a 14-6 lead into halftime. Cleveland struggles to sustain drives against Buffalo’s opportunistic defense, and the Bills spend the second half leaning on a balanced run game to bleed clock. That approach limits possessions to roughly 10–11 per side and keeps the total in check.