Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans – Week 12 NFL Picks
The official kickoff of NFL Week 12 begins with a crucial Thursday Night Football matchup in Houston. The betting line—a slim -5.5 spread—is one of the most disrespectful numbers on the board given the injury news: without their primary playmaker, C.J. Stroud, the Houston Texans’ offense faces a massive efficiency gap against Josh Allen and the Bills. This Week 12 opener is straightforward: the Bills are the superior team, and the small spread is a gift.
Game Information Dashboard
Date: Thursday, November 20, 2025
Time: 8:15 PM ET
Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
Odds: Buffalo Bills -5.5 | Total: 43.5
The Rundown
The opener hit the board at Buffalo -4.5, and once news broke that C.J. Stroud would miss the game, the number ticked up to -5.5. This isn’t sharp money driving a position — it’s purely a quarterback adjustment. Books are reacting to the confirmed absence of the Texans’ franchise QB, and the market is simply catching up. If the spread climbs to -6 or -6.5, that’s when both sharp and public interest start to overlap. But right now, the move is all about Stroud being ruled out.
The efficiency gap becomes more meaningful with Davis Mills under center. Buffalo generates a point every 52.3 yards; Houston needs 61.7. Spread that across a typical 12-drive game and you’re looking at an 11-point theoretical differential — a significant gap for a matchup with a sub-44 total. The Bills arrive off a 44-point eruption against Tampa Bay where Josh Allen accounted for six touchdowns, while Houston just scraped past Tennessee 16-13. Houston’s defense is legit, but their offense hits a hard ceiling without Stroud’s playmaking.
Why Buffalo Has the Edge
The Bills’ offensive efficiency advantage becomes magnified without Stroud. Buffalo ranks 6th in yards per point (52.3), while Houston sits 18th (61.7). That 9.4-yard gap per scoring point stacks up quickly. Over a full game’s worth of possessions, Buffalo is built to score more often and with fewer mistakes.
The point-per-drive numbers tell the same story. Buffalo sits at 2.41 points per drive (7th), while Houston checks in at 1.94 (19th). That 0.47 PPD difference translates to roughly 5.5 points over a standard game — right in line with the current spread.
The Numbers That Matter
- Points Per Drive: Buffalo 2.41 (rank 7) vs Houston 1.94 (rank 19)
- Yards Per Play: Buffalo 5.8 vs Houston 5.2
- Success Rate: Buffalo 48.2% vs Houston 42.1%
- Drive Success Rate: Buffalo 71.3% vs Houston 65.8%
- Explosive Play Rate: Buffalo 13.7% vs Houston 11.2%
- Three-and-Out Rate: Buffalo 16.4% vs Houston 21.7%
Buffalo’s explosive-play advantage is the matchup that tilts the field. Over 65 snaps, their +2.5% explosive rate projects to roughly one to two additional chunk plays, and each one adds hidden expected points. Combine that with Buffalo’s stronger red-zone execution (63.4% TD rate vs Houston’s 52.1%) and you get a Bills offense that finishes more drives with sevens instead of threes.
Market Analysis & Line Movement
The move from -4.5 to -5.5 isn’t sharp influence — it’s purely quarterback news. Books priced in Stroud’s absence, and the number adjusted quickly. If the line hits -6 or higher, then we’re entering territory where sharp bettors may decide the number is still short. For now, Mills stepping in is the entire story.
The total dipped from 44.5 to 43.5, which aligns with the downgrade from Stroud to Mills. Houston becomes more conservative offensively, leaning on defense and pace. The early ticket split is 58% Bills, but the handle leans heavier at 65%, meaning bigger bettors are still willing to lay road chalk with Buffalo.
Head-to-Head Efficiency Matchups
| Metric | Buffalo | Houston | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Drive | 2.41 | 1.94 | Buffalo |
| Success Rate | 48.2% | 42.1% | Buffalo |
| Explosive Play Rate | 13.7% | 11.2% | Buffalo |
| Drive Success Rate | 71.3% | 65.8% | Buffalo |
| Three-and-Out Rate | 16.4% | 21.7% | Buffalo |
| Red Zone TD Rate | 63.4% | 52.1% | Buffalo |
| Turnover Rate | 1 per 18 | 1 per 15 | Houston |
Houston’s only edge is turnover creation, and even that softens with Mills under center because the offense is less aggressive and generates fewer risky passing situations. Buffalo’s efficiency on early downs (51.3% success rate) should force the Texans into predictable third-and-long sequences.
The Bottom Line & Predictions
With Stroud ruled out, this matchup becomes straightforward. Buffalo owns the efficiency edge, the quarterback edge, and the explosive-play edge. Houston’s defense can keep them competitive for stretches, but their offensive ceiling is lower without Stroud’s improvisation.
Prediction
Buffalo Bills 26, Houston Texans 17
Best Bets
- ⭐⭐⭐ Buffalo Bills -5.5 (-110) — Stroud’s absence turns Buffalo’s efficiency edge into spread value.
- ⭐⭐ Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+122) — Red-zone efficiency leans to multiple passing scores.
- ⭐ Under 43.5 — Houston’s offense becomes more conservative under Mills.
Game Flow Projection: Buffalo controls tempo and wins the explosiveness battle. Houston needs defensive scores or short fields to stay within arm’s reach. If they fall behind by double digits, Mills doesn’t have the firepower to play catch-up.
