Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew are out, leaving Arrowhead in the hands of Chris Oladokun. Bryan Bash investigates if the Chiefs can even cross the 36.5-point total against Denver’s dominant pass rush.
Opening Setup
Here’s the Christmas gift no NFL fan expected: Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos laying 13 points on the road against a Kansas City Chiefs team starting third-string quarterback Chris Oladokun. After Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew both suffered season-ending injuries, this AFC West rivalry matchup has turned into one of the strangest betting propositions of the year.
For newer bettors, when you see a road team favored by this much in the NFL, it usually means something dramatic has happened — and boy, has it ever. The Chiefs went from Super Bowl contenders to also-rans in the span of two weeks, while Denver needs wins to lock up the AFC’s top seed after their shocking 34-20 loss to Jacksonville last week.
The key storyline here isn’t just about personnel — it’s about motivation. Denver has everything to play for, while Kansas City appears ready for the golf course. That creates a perfect storm for bettors willing to lay the points with a desperate road favorite.
Game Details Box
Date: Thursday, December 25
Time: 8:15 PM ET
Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
TV: Prime Video
Current Betting Lines
| Bet Type | Line | Juice |
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Denver -13 | -110 |
| Total Points | Over/Under 36.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Denver -950 / Kansas City +600 | – |
Quick Translation: The spread means Denver needs to win by 14 or more points for spread bettors to cash. The total represents the combined score of both teams — bet over if you think they’ll score 37+ points combined, under if less. The moneyline shows Denver as a massive favorite — you’d need to bet $950 to win $100 on the Broncos, while a $100 bet on Kansas City would pay $600.
Line Movement Analysis
This line opened around Denver -10.5 and has steadily climbed to -13, which tells you everything about where the sharp money is going. When a road favorite’s spread keeps increasing, it usually means the sportsbooks are getting hammered on one side and can’t find enough Chiefs backers to balance their books.
The total has actually dropped from the opener around 39 down to 36.5, which makes sense when you consider Kansas City just lost 26-9 to Tennessee with their backup quarterbacks. For new bettors, this is what we call “reverse line movement” — the spread moving toward Denver despite them likely getting heavy public action, suggesting professional bettors are comfortable laying the big number with the Broncos.
Key Matchups
The numbers paint a clear picture of why this spread exists. Look at the offensive efficiency gap:
Points per game: Denver 24.1 vs Kansas City 22.5
Yards per play: Denver 5.5 vs Kansas City 5.4
Red-zone TD rate: Denver 62.0% vs Kansas City 58.9%
Third-down conversion: Denver 40.0% vs Kansas City 39.3%
These numbers were competitive when Kansas City had their starting quarterback. Now? Denver’s defense — which allows just 4.6 yards per play (1st in NFL) and 19.7 points per game (5th) — gets to face a third-string quarterback making his first road start. That’s the definition of a mismatch.
Why Smart Bettors Like Denver
- Elite Defense vs Third-String QB — Denver allows the fewest yards per play in the NFL and gets Chris Oladokun making his first meaningful start.
- Motivation Mismatch — Broncos need wins for the #1 seed while Kansas City is 6-9 and clearly done with this season.
- Recent Form Favors Denver — Despite last week’s loss, the Broncos are 9-1 in their last 10 games, while Kansas City is 4-6 and lost 26-9 to Tennessee.
Betting Recommendations
Primary Bet: Denver -13 (-110) — This feels like a spot where the Broncos make a statement. Their defense is legitimately elite, ranking 1st in yards per play allowed and 2nd in rush defense. Facing a third-string quarterback on a short week should result in multiple three-and-outs and potential turnovers. Meanwhile, Bo Nix and the offense know they need style points after struggling against Jacksonville.
Secondary Consideration: The under 36.5 looks enticing given Kansas City’s offensive limitations and Denver’s defensive prowess. Three straight Chiefs games have stayed under this number, and that was with better quarterbacks than Oladokun.
What to Watch For
- Early Denver scoring drives that could force Kansas City into obvious passing situations
- How quickly Denver’s pass rush gets home against a backup offensive line
- Whether Kansas City shows any fight or mails it in early
- Live betting opportunities if this game gets out of hand quickly
Bottom Line Summary
Sometimes the obvious play is the right play. Denver has a championship-caliber defense going against a quarterback most casual fans have never heard of. The Broncos are desperate for wins to secure their playoff positioning, while Kansas City is playing out the string of a disappointing season.
Yes, 13 points is a lot in the NFL, but when you break down the matchups and motivation, this has all the makings of a statement game for Denver. The line movement confirms that sharp bettors agree — sometimes you just have to trust the process and lay the points with the better team.
Final Score Prediction: Denver 28, Kansas City 12.
