Broncos at Commanders: Our Expert ATS Pick and Prediction for SNF Week 13

Denver Broncos (9-2 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) vs. Washington Commanders (3-8 SU, 3-8 ATS)
NFL Football Week 13
Date/Time: Sunday Night Football, November 30, 2025, at 8:20 PM EST
Where: Northwest Stadium, Landover, Maryland
TV: NBC/Peacock

The Denver Broncos come to Landover for a Sunday Night Football showdown with the Washington Commanders in week 13 action. This pairs two teams playing late on Sunday after already having gotten last week off with a bye. Denver, flying high at 9-2, entered the bye with a big last-second win over division rival Kansas City, 22-19. Washington, meanwhile, lost a fourth-quarter lead before falling in overtime to Miami, 16-13. Now at 3-8, they’ve seen their season go completely sideways and are in dire need of a positive development. Who should we get behind in this SNF matchup? Let’s break it down!

Can the Commanders be Resuscitated?

While the Commanders had a bye last week, the hardships of the season can’t help but not sit well with this team. It can be chalked up to a lot of different factors, beyond them just not playing as well as last season, when they were one game away from making it to the Super Bowl. The fact remains that we’re looking at a crestfallen team that by mid-November was already facing all but certain elimination from the postseason. Not having QB Jayden Daniels in tow is a major culprit. The standout Commanders QB is still dealing with a dislocated shoulder, and though he’s expected to practice this week, word is he will not play.

As is usually the case with a 3-win team in week 13, a positive outlook on them requires there being something unappealing about the other team. That’s not easy to find with a 9-2 Broncos bunch coming off a bye after a prolonged stay at home, where a long road-trip like this is easier to stomach. But this could be the first time the Broncos see some weather this season, making an out-of-the-way and out-of-conference road appearance against a team with whom they have no real connection. They have a good hold on first place within their division and you could see where some of this maybe adds up to a Broncos team playing without maximum urgency against an undemanding opponent, with a number to cover on the road, as well. But alas, it’s not a great sign when one team’s hopes are tied up in these sorts of matters. To get behind Washington, you really need to make a case for why Denver might not be in peak-form for this one.

Difficult to Get Behind Washington

It’s not just the loss of Daniels that has made the Commanders a lost cause this season. No one has distinguished themselves consistently in the running game. What was supposed to be an impactful one-two punch at wide receiver with Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel has yet to make a dent. And sure, injuries play a role. Word is McLaurin is back on the practice field, but with Marcus Mariota behind center, it might not make that much of a difference. He’s not bad as a temporary fill-in, but his viability as a guy starting a bunch of games is dicey at best. All these issues on offense have made their cruddy defense something that can no longer be camouflaged. Only the Dolphins being so dysfunctional made the last game look decent, where they allowed just 16 points in an overtime loss. Leading into that, they had allowed a combined 154 points in their previous 4 games.

Compare that to the Broncos, who are in many ways what the Commanders were last season as an emerging contender. Their two losses were by 3 to the Chargers and 1 to the Colts. While it’s not always electric, they can open it up a little on defensive units that are really ragged. QB Bo Nix is excellent and works behind a great offensive line that is going to be awfully tough on this Washington front. They have also been resilient to injuries after losing CB Patrick Surtain, II., and lead back JK Dobbins. It’s a unit that doesn’t run on a lot of star-power, but is nevertheless very effective.

The issue for a sagging Commanders offense is that they’ll be going against a rested Denver defense that is among the tops in the league. They have allowed a league-low 17 TDs on the season. The Commanders have given up nearly twice that many. The Denver “D” really gets after it, makes a lot of big plays, and has taken on a giant role in Denver’s success. In other words, this is a tricky road spot, and for all of Denver’s success, they’ve only surpassed 28 points twice this season. And now they have to cover a decent number on the road against a truly-desperate Commanders team with no margin for error. But at the same time, the path to success from a matchup-perspective isn’t terribly easy to envision for the Commanders.

Take the Road Favorite

Again, it’s not as easy as it looks. Denver is far surpassing expectations this season, without really being a bonanza against the spread. It’s not easy laying almost a TD on the road with a team that can be a bit reserved offensively. It’s just that Denver is so strong in the trenches and in ways that might not leap off the screen, the very things that can trouble a team that is suffering in as many areas as the Commanders are. And not that the Commanders won’t rise up again at some point this season, but I don’t see this being the week. I’m taking the Broncos.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Denver Broncos minus 6.5 points.