Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams NFL Prediction & Best Bets Week 12

The market is currently mispricing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at +6.5, overly reacting to their two recent losses and an ominous injury report that lists nearly half the team with issues. However, the 8−2 Rams are vulnerable, having barely beaten the Seahawks last week despite forcing four turnovers. The Buccaneers, facing the urgent possibility of a third straight loss, bring a superior situational edge and the necessary urgency to cover this inflated spread. We are betting on the competitive floor of a desperate team, making the Buccaneers +6.5 the sharp pick for Sunday Night Football.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Rams (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS)
NFL Football Week 12
Date/Time: Sunday Night Football, November 23, 2025, at 8:20 PM EST
Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
TV: NBC/Peacock

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers come to SoFi Stadium for a Sunday Night Football showdown with the Los Angeles Rams. A marquee matchup of week 12, this NFC showdown features an 8-2 Rams team looking to keep it rolling against a dangerous Buccaneers team in need of a positive development after two straight losses. On Sunday, they fell to 6-4 with a 44-32 loss to the Bills. The Rams, meanwhile, won their fifth in a row on Sunday with a 21-19 win against the Seahawks. Again at home this week, can they keep it rolling, or will some urgency start to register with the Buccaneers?

What’s Wrong with the Bucs?

Maybe it’s nothing. Teams, even good ones, are entitled to lose two games in a row. Their defense has taken a step back lately, but beyond that, it might be a personnel issue, with injuries having cost them on both sides of the ball. There is some good news in that Tampa offensive stalwarts Chris Godwin and Bucky Irving appear closer to returning to the fold. Having a rising receiver in Emeka Egbuka has helped cushion Godwin, playing only two games, and Mike Evans being out of action. Having so much depth in the ground game has kept that part of their offense viable. And losing to the Bills and Patriots isn’t such a horrible thing, despite the 6-TD game for Josh Allen not being a good look last Sunday. It would still seem premature for anyone to relegate the Buccaneers to the scrap heap based on the last few weeks. I’d expect this gutsy Bucs squad and Baker Mayfield to respond accordingly this week.

Still, before trying to chalk up the last few weeks to good teams they’ve played, they have another good one in their midst, having to cross the country, as Mayfield takes on a team he briefly played for before resurrecting his career fully in Tampa Bay. Matthew Stafford and this Rams’ offense are dangerous, and they’ve allowed an average of just 13 points a game during this five-game winning streak. We’ve seen the Rams win in a variety of ways. Last week, they avoided the season sweep to the Seahawks with a big-play defense. Other weeks, it’s Matthew Stafford going hog-wild with his weapons, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, and other aerial contributors. And then it can also be RB Kyren Williams having a big day. This Tampa road defense is going to need to do a lot better than what we’ve been seeing.

Getting a Lay of the Land

Despite the Bucs being on a little slide and the Rams on a good roll, they’re both atop their respective division standings with a minor edge. Tampa might be in the better spot in this regard, holding at bay what may be an overachieving Panthers team, while the Rams still have Seattle and the Niners at their heels. The Rams’ success this season is no fluke. They’re well-rounded with an offense that can do damage and a front-seven on defense that is the envy of most teams. In this game, the Bucs are going to need to use some better health news on the O-line to good effect, but they’re still banged-up. And they will be tested this week. Then again, Mayfield is a gunslinger and has weapons he will be looking to exploit.

Another loss could have Carolina in first place, and Tampa has to be gunning hard to avoid that. With two games upcoming against the Panthers, you’d think they don’t want it all coming down to that with the fast start they had to the season. They were finding ways to win with heroics from Mayfield and this offense, But two in a row and three losses in four, losing to the Lions, Patriots, and Bills have them looking a bit ragged, with the injuries having taken an offense overspilling with options to an offense where opposing defenses and good ones like the Rams can better contain the major threats. They still managed a ton of offense against the Bills, with backup running back Sean Tucker having a huge game. But I’d expect lesser results against this Rams bunch.

Hope for the Buccaneers

Despite all the recent success for the Rams, last week provided some good fortune, getting all those turnovers and still barely winning. Seattle was still able to generate a lot of offense, despite the errant throws from Darnold undermining the results. We’re going to need to see throughout the week exactly how Tampa is looking on the injury front, especially in regard to Godwin and Irving, but even if they’re back in a reduced capacity, it could at least open things up a bit for their more-featured weapons who have been drawing a lot of heat.

Take the Number on the Road Dog

It’s a scary proposition. That Tampa secondary and offensive line stand out as major issues against this Rams’ team if they’re playing well. I just think the Bucs will be at a slightly different headspace staring at possibly their third straight loss, while the Rams could be slightly more flippant this week. While this Rams’ defense is in fact a lot better than Tampa’s overall, if the Bucs’ O-line can chip in a little and Mayfield can hold up to some pressure without too many adverse effects, I can see them making a game of it. They might not get over the hump for a win, but I’m thinking maybe Tampa can cover the spread this week in LA. I’m taking the Buccaneers.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus 6.5 points.