Buffalo Bills (0-5 SU,1-4 ATS)atBaltimore Ravens(4-2 SU,3-2-1 ATS), Week7 NFL, 1:00 p.m. EST, Sunday, October 24, 2010,M&T Bank Stadium (Field Turf), Baltimore MD, TV: CBS
by Jeff Hochman of JHSportsline.com
Betting Odds:Buff +12.5/Balt -12.5
Over/Under Total: 37
With two weeks to prepare the Buffalo Bills travel to Baltimore, and willplay the Ravens knowing they will be fired up after blowing a 10-point fourth-quarter lead against the Patriots.
Baltimore lost 23-20 last week as 3-point road underdogs in a key AFC matchup. Who needs Randy Moss when you have former Super Bowl MVP Deion Branch on the roster.Tom Brady completed 27-of-44 for 292 yards and Branch made themost of his trade back to his former team. He had 9 receptions for 98 yards and one touchdown. Five of the catches came in the fourth-quarter comeback.
Joe Flacco continued his successful sophomore campaign passing for 283 yards and two touchdowns. Ray Rice had 88 yards but it took him 28 carries. The Patriots’ defense had a good game plan against the explosive runner. That should not be a surprise as Belichick and company had two weeks todevisetheir game plan. Derrick Mason had another good game with eight balls for 100 yards. In the end, it was the Ravens’ defense that looked slower as the game progressed to the final quarter.
Ryan Fitzpatrick has been an upgrade (99.9 QB rating)at the quarterback position, but with a shaky offense line he doesn’t get much time to throw the ball. He has thrown for 595 yards with seven touchdowns and two interceptions. Steve Johnson, Lee Evans, andDavid Nelson are getting very little separation on their routes. The Ravens’ pass defense allows 175 yards per game which ranks third in the AFC. Not a good matchup for the Bills.
The Bills offensive line has show no ability to stop any pass-rush thrown their way, and the Ravens’ front seven can be relentlessin attacking schemes. Buffalodrafted C.J. Spiller because they felt he could make plays. While Spiller has shown signs of promise, behind thatawful Bills’ offensive line, he has not been able to accomplish anything this season.
You might here this next Spring. With the first pick in the 2011 NFL Draft the Buffalo Bills select Andrew Luck. How does that sound Bills’ fans?
The Bills are last in rushing defense allowing an average of 182 yards per game, and they are last in points allowed giving up an average of 32 points per game, through the first six weeks of the season. All of these numbers are inflated over the past three weeks as the Bills defense looks like it has simply collapsed under the weight of the offense. No defense has played more minutes than Buffalo.
Buffalo is 0-5 ITS (in the stats) this season, and they have not even come close to out-gaining any opponent. The Ravens are 5-1 ITS this season despite Joe Flacco not looking crisp at times. The Bills should be the elixir that the Ravens are craving after last week’s tough defeat. The Ravens’ defense gets a chance to work out their aggression by “teeing” off against the Bills’ last rankedoffense. The Ravens’offense gets a chance to work on their passing game against a Bills’ pass-rush that is ranked dead last in sacks and quarterback pressures.
Buffalois 5-13 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Baltimoreis 11-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. If Joe Flacco does not turn the ball over, the Ravens should have no trouble covering this big spread at home. But, if Flaccomakes mistakes like he has done this season, than the game might be a lot closer than we would like. I am banking on the former!
The last meeting (2007)saw the Bills upset Baltimore 19-14 as 3-point home dogs. Kyle Boller started for Baltimore while Trent Edwards was under Center for Buffalo. A lot has changed since than.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo’s last 6 games The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore’s last 5 games at home. The OVER is 5-0 when the total is listed at 37 or higher when these twoteams play each other.
Jeff’sPick to Cover the Point Spread: Baltimore Ravens -12.5 & Over 37.
Not much to analyze in this one. The Ravens are pissed coming offlast week’s meltdown. Buffalo will be able to score enough points that should send this game Over as well.