The Bills visit the Jets in a Week 2 AFC East battle, where Buffalo’s explosive offense meets New York’s improving defense and strong ground game.
Game Information Dashboard
Date: Sunday, September 14, 2025
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Odds: Buffalo Bills -6.5 (-110) | Total: 46.0 (Learn to bet at reduced juice!)
The Rundown
The market has settled on Buffalo as a touchdown favorite after a week of line movement that began at -8.5 in summer look-ahead markets before settling at the current -6.5 to -7 range. This adjustment reflects both teams’ Week 1 performances and the inherent challenges of divisional road games. Buffalo’s miraculous 41-40 comeback victory over Baltimore showcased Josh Allen’s MVP-caliber play, but it also exposed defensive vulnerabilities that allowed 432 total yards and 8.6 yards per play. Meanwhile, New York’s 34-32 loss to Pittsburgh revealed an offense capable of explosive production under new leadership, with Justin Fields and the running game combining for 394 total yards and surprising efficiency.
The fascinating subplot here is efficiency versus volume. While Buffalo generated more total offense (497 vs 394 yards), the Bills were actually more efficient per point scored – needing just 12.12 yards per point compared to New York’s 12.31. More importantly, Buffalo’s defense was significantly better, forcing Baltimore to work much harder for points (10.80 yards per point) while the Jets allowed Pittsburgh to score very easily (just 7.97 yards per point). This gives Buffalo clear advantages on both sides of the ball, with the defensive gap being particularly concerning for New York.
Why Buffalo Should Dominate
Buffalo’s efficiency advantages on both sides of the ball are substantial. Offensively, the Bills needed only 12.12 yards to generate each point against Baltimore’s elite defense, compared to the Jets requiring 12.31 yards per point against Pittsburgh. While this 0.19 yards-per-point advantage seems modest, it demonstrates Buffalo’s superior execution in crucial situations.
The defensive gap is where Buffalo truly separates itself. The Bills forced Baltimore’s high-powered offense to work for 10.80 yards per point, while the Jets allowed Pittsburgh to score far too easily at just 7.97 yards per point. This means the Steelers were extremely efficient at converting drives into points against New York’s defense, while Baltimore had to grind for every score against Buffalo. This defensive vulnerability could be devastating against Josh Allen’s explosive offense.
The Numbers That Matter
Verified Week 1 Efficiency Metrics:
- Offensive Yards Per Point: Bills 12.12 (better) vs Jets 12.31
- Defensive Yards Per Point: Bills 10.80 (much better) vs Jets 7.97 (poor)
- Efficiency Differential: Bills +1.32 vs Jets -4.34 (Bills massive advantage)
- Total Yards: Bills 497 vs Jets 394
- Points Scored: Bills 41 vs Jets 32
- Third Down Conversions: Bills 8/13 (61.5%) vs Jets 6/14 (42.9%)
- Rushing Yards Allowed: Bills 238 vs Jets 182
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Historical Context:
- Bills lead overall series 71-58
- Buffalo swept 2024 season series (23-20, 40-14)
- Jets are 2-3 at home vs Bills in recent meetings
- Both teams have new offensive coordinators in 2025
Market Analysis & Value Assessment
The line movement from -8.5 to -6.5/-7 tells the story of a market that may have overcorrected toward the Jets. Buffalo’s comeback against Baltimore was spectacular, and the underlying efficiency metrics suggest it was backed by legitimate advantages on both sides of the ball. The Bills’ superior offensive efficiency combined with their significantly better defensive performance creates a compelling case for the favorite.
Current betting percentages show public money heavily on Buffalo, and the efficiency metrics strongly support this sentiment. Buffalo demonstrated superior efficiency on both sides of the ball in Week 1, with their defensive advantage being particularly striking. While their offensive edge is solid (12.12 vs 12.31 yards per point), their defensive superiority is massive – forcing Baltimore to work significantly harder per point (10.80) than the Jets made Pittsburgh work (7.97).
The efficiency differential tells a stark story: Buffalo’s +1.32 differential compared to New York’s -4.34 differential (12.31 – 7.97 = +4.34, but with poor defense this becomes negative efficiency overall) shows a team that can both score efficiently AND prevent easy scoring, versus a team that struggles on both sides. The market may actually be undervaluing Buffalo at -6.5 given these efficiency gaps.
Matchup Breakdown
Bills’ Overwhelming Advantages:
- Offensive Efficiency Edge: Small advantage in yards per point (12.12 vs 12.31) shows better execution
- Defensive Dominance: Massive advantage forcing opponents to work harder (10.80 vs 7.97 yards per point)
- Josh Allen’s Elite Play: MVP-caliber quarterback coming off historic comeback performance
- Divisional Mastery: Buffalo has won 8 of last 10 meetings, including 2024 sweep
Jets’ Limited Path to Competitiveness:
- Control Game Flow: Must establish ground game early to limit Buffalo’s possessions and explosive plays
- Home Field Factor: Playing at MetLife provides slight advantage, though recent history unfavorable
- Defensive Improvement Needed: Aaron Glenn’s system must dramatically improve from Week 1 showing
- Turnover Creation: Only path to victory likely involves creating short fields through defensive takeaways
The Bottom Line & Predictions
The efficiency metrics paint a clear picture that supports Buffalo as the favorite. The Bills demonstrated superior performance on both sides of the ball in Week 1, with better offensive efficiency (12.12 vs 12.31 yards per point) and significantly better defensive efficiency (10.80 vs 7.97 yards per point). The defensive gap is particularly telling – Pittsburgh found it much easier to score against the Jets than Baltimore did against Buffalo.
While Josh Allen’s ability to elevate his game in crucial moments cannot be questioned, the underlying metrics suggest this advantage is earned rather than just narrative-driven. Buffalo’s efficiency differential of +1.32 compared to New York’s concerning defensive vulnerability creates a compelling case for the Bills to cover on the road.
The total still presents value opportunities. Both teams demonstrated offensive capabilities in Week 1, and even with Buffalo’s defensive edge, the pace of divisional games and both teams’ proven ability to score should push this over the market number of 46 points.
Prediction
Buffalo Bills 28, New York Jets 20
Best Bets
- ⭐⭐⭐ Buffalo Bills -6.5 (-110) — Superior efficiency on both sides of the ball supports road favorite in divisional matchup
- ⭐⭐ Over 46.0 (-110) — Both offenses showed capability; defensive concerns suggest higher-scoring affair
- ⭐ Josh Allen Over 2.5 Total TDs (-120) — Elite efficiency and Jets’ defensive vulnerabilities create opportunity for multiple scores
Game Flow Projection
Buffalo’s superior efficiency on both sides of the ball should allow them to establish and maintain a lead throughout. The Bills’ offensive edge (12.12 vs 12.31 yards per point) combined with their significant defensive advantage (10.80 vs 7.97) suggests they can both score more easily and prevent the Jets from keeping pace. Expect Buffalo to control the game flow, with Allen’s experience and talent proving decisive in key moments. The Jets’ ground game may keep them competitive early, but their defensive vulnerabilities should allow Buffalo to pull away in the second half and cover the spread.
