November 30, 2025 | 1:00 PM ET | Raymond James Stadium
Team Overview
Arizona Cardinals: 3-8 (Last 10: 1-9 SU, 5-4 ATS) — Eight losses in their last nine games but competitive against the number.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-5 (Last 10: 4-6 SU, 1-5 ATS) — Four losses in their last five and one of the worst home ATS teams in football.
Series Trend: Arizona is 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games against Tampa but just 1-4 straight up in the last five trips.
Betting Lines
Spread: Tampa Bay -3
Moneyline: Arizona +152 / Tampa Bay -152
Total: 44
The Sharp-Side Story
This matchup is the exact kind of spot where sharp bettors quietly pounce. On paper, a 6–5 team at home should have the edge, but Tampa’s recent form and ATS profile tell another story entirely. Arizona is 5-0 ATS in their last five against the Buccaneers and 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. Meanwhile, Tampa has cratered to 1-5 ATS at home and 1-4 ATS overall in their last five. The market keeps pricing the Bucs like a playoff contender, but their performance against the number says otherwise.
Add in Arizona’s resilience against the spread and this +3 line paints a picture: the Bucs are being treated like a trustworthy favorite, but nothing in their current form supports that.
Efficiency Breakdown
Arizona Efficiency
Yards Per Point: 14.76
Defensive Yards Per Point: 13.1
Efficiency Differential: +1.66
Pass Defense (YPP Allowed): 10.21
Tampa Bay Efficiency
Yards Per Point: 13.57
Defensive Yards Per Point: 13.21
Efficiency Differential: +0.36
Pass Defense (YPP Allowed): 10.8
The Cardinals hold the stronger efficiency differential, and their pass defense is nearly a full yard per play better. In a matchup featuring two inconsistent offenses, small efficiency gaps often become deciding factors. Arizona grades out as the more balanced team — the win-loss record just hides it.
Mayfield’s Shoulder: The Wild Card
Baker Mayfield’s left shoulder injury is the cloud over this entire handicap. He’s officially questionable after dealing with instability on throws late last week. Even if he starts, expect a scaled-back passing script — fewer vertical shots, more timing throws, fewer chances to punish Arizona downfield.
If Teddy Bridgewater plays, the Bucs’ explosiveness evaporates. Tampa’s offense becomes predictable very quickly, and Arizona’s defense is built to handle that kind of structure.
Tampa Injuries to Monitor
- Baker Mayfield: Questionable (shoulder). Ceiling drastically reduced if active.
- Bucky Irving: Questionable (shoulder/foot).
- Jamel Dean: Questionable (hip).
- Benjamin Morrison: OUT (hamstring).
- Rashad Wisdom: OUT (quadricep).
Arizona Key Injuries
- Marvin Harrison Jr.: Questionable (appendicitis recovery).
- Trey McBride: Expected to play — 80 receptions on the season.
- RB injuries: Demercado OUT, Benson OUT, Knight questionable.
Bottom line: Tampa’s secondary and running back room are thin. Arizona is also banged up, but their offense flows through McBride anyway, and his availability stabilizes the passing game.
Situational Angles
Arizona Trends
5-1 ATS in last six road games.
5-0 ATS in last five meetings with Tampa.
Despite a 1–9 straight-up stretch, they’ve remained competitive in games they weren’t supposed to be in.
Tampa Bay Trends
1-5 ATS at home in last six.
1-4 ATS in last five overall.
Just one home cover in nearly two months — the Bucs simply haven’t delivered as favorites.
Matchup Focus: Trey McBride vs Tampa Secondary
Trey McBride is the centerpiece of Arizona’s offense, and he’s been unstoppable regardless of opponent. He has 13 straight games with at least five catches and sits at 80 receptions on the season.
Tampa’s secondary, already shaky, now faces McBride without Morrison and maybe without Dean. That means linebackers and backup DBs in coverage — a huge mismatch. Expect double-digit targets again.
Run Game & Defensive Notes
Tampa’s run defense is serviceable, but Arizona’s injuries make their ground game secondary to Brissett’s short-area passing. That’s not a bad thing — the Cardinals have been more efficient when forced to throw.
Arizona’s defense allows 4.33 yards per rush, slightly better than Tampa’s offensive output. But the real gap is in the passing game, where Arizona is much stronger defensively than Tampa. If Tampa becomes one-dimensional (especially with a limited Mayfield), Arizona gains major leverage.
The Total: Why the Under is Live
The Under has cashed in 9 of the last 13 meetings. These teams gravitate toward slower, grind-heavy games. With Tampa’s QB concerns and Arizona’s RB injury cluster, this matchup loses explosiveness fast.
Recent scoring for Arizona: 24, 22, 22.
Recent scoring for Tampa: inconsistent, dependent on turnovers and short fields.
Given both teams’ profiles, 44 looks high.
Final Prediction
Tampa Bay 20, Arizona 17
Arizona covers, Tampa survives — nothing about Tampa’s profile suggests they can stretch margin right now.
Best Bets
1. Arizona +3
Confidence: 5/5
Arizona has the efficiency edge, the ATS edge, the matchup edge, and the injury edge. This line should be closer to a pick’em.
2. Under 44
Confidence: 4/5
The historical trend, injury context, and offensive limitations all point to a game played in the high 30s to low 40s.
3. Arizona Moneyline +152
Confidence: 3/5
With a real win probability closer to 45–48%, the +152 price is playable for smaller units.
4. Trey McBride Over 5.5 Receptions
Confidence: 3/5
Volume, matchup, injury context — everything points upward. If books hang 5.5 or 6.5, the Over is live.
Key Takeaway
The market overvalues Tampa’s record and undervalues Arizona’s ability to stay inside numbers. Arizona +3 is the sharp side, and the Under remains the safest angle based on every available data point.
