Arizona Cardinals vs Dallas Cowboys – Week 9 NFL Picks
Game Information Dashboard
Date: Monday, November 3, 2025
Time: 8:15 PM ET
Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Odds: Dallas Cowboys -3.5 | Total: 52.5–53 (market range)
The Rundown
The market’s made a strong move on this one — Dallas now sits at -3.5 after word leaked that Kyler Murray isn’t expected to start. That’s a 4-point swing from the early lookahead line, and it feels like an overreaction. Jacoby Brissett isn’t some stopgap; he’s quietly posted 320 yards against Indianapolis and 279 versus Green Bay in his last two, with a 68% completion rate and no picks. The Cardinals’ offensive profile hasn’t cratered under him — they’re still generating 2.1 points per drive and 5.8 yards per play. The difference between these two teams is smaller than the record suggests, and the efficiency data backs that up. Dallas is the better team on paper, but the gap between perception and performance here is where the value sits.
Why Arizona Still Has Value
Arizona wins in the details — the situational football that covers spreads. They convert 39% of third downs to Dallas’ 36%, finish more drives (61% red-zone TD rate vs 58%), and force more three-and-outs (22% vs 19%). Over 12–13 possessions, those little advantages equate to about three or four points of value. That’s the margin the line just gave back to bettors. Dallas’ defense has been vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks, allowing 4.8 yards per carry to scrambling QBs this season. Even if Murray’s only used situationally, that wrinkle adds a layer of pressure to a Cowboys front that’s struggled to contain off-script plays. The market’s reacting to the headline, not the matchup reality — Brissett can manage the game, and the Cardinals can move the ball.
The Numbers That Matter
- Points Per Drive: Arizona 2.1 (18th) | Dallas 2.3 (12th)
- Yards Per Play: Arizona 5.8 | Dallas 5.6
- Success Rate: Arizona 44% | Dallas 46%
- Drive Success Rate: Arizona 67% | Dallas 69%
- Explosive Play Rate: Arizona 12.1% | Dallas 11.8%
- Three-and-Out Rate: Arizona 22% | Dallas 25%
Defensively, Arizona’s slightly better on paper. They allow 2.2 points per drive (24th) versus Dallas at 2.4 (28th). The Cards also force turnovers more often — one every 18 possessions versus one every 22 for Dallas — and have a modest edge in time of possession (31:12 vs 29:48). That matters in a game with a total now trickling down toward 52.5 at sharper books. Fewer possessions mean points come at a premium, and taking the hook (+3.5) becomes even more valuable in what’s shaping up as a possession-for-possession type of game.
Market Analysis & Line Movement
Dallas opened -2.5 and now sits -3.5 after the Murray news, crossing two key numbers. But the total dropping from 54 to as low as 52.5 tells the other side of the story — bettors expect a slower pace and fewer big plays, not a Cowboys blowout. Handle data shows the public backing Dallas (around 60% of tickets) while larger wagers have stayed neutral or leaned slightly toward Arizona. The dome setting eliminates weather variables, leaving pure efficiency and execution to dictate the result. If the total’s right, every possession matters — and that makes +3.5 live value on the road dog.
Head-to-Head Efficiency Matchups
| Metric | Arizona | Dallas | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Drive | 2.1 | 2.3 | Dallas |
| Success Rate | 44% | 46% | Dallas |
| Explosive Play Rate | 12.1% | 11.8% | Arizona |
| Drive Success Rate | 67% | 69% | Dallas |
| Three-and-Out Rate | 22% | 25% | Arizona |
| Red Zone TD Rate | 61% | 58% | Arizona |
| Turnover Rate | 1 per 18 | 1 per 22 | Arizona |
Dallas has the talent edge, but Arizona has the efficiency edge where it counts — turnover creation, red-zone finish rate, and drive consistency. The Cardinals don’t need Murray at full throttle to stay competitive; Brissett’s short passing and ball control play right into this matchup, especially if the Cowboys’ secondary continues to struggle against layered route trees. If Arizona wins first down, they cover this number.
The Bottom Line & Prediction
The market moved fast on the news, but not necessarily in the right direction. Arizona’s profile under Brissett has been stable, and their defensive pressure and turnover rates give them more staying power than their 2-5 record suggests. Dallas deserves to be favored, but a full field goal plus the hook is too rich. This sets up as a grinder where both offenses trade long drives and settle for field goals more often than touchdowns. In that kind of game, +3.5 holds real value.
Prediction
Dallas Cowboys 27, Arizona Cardinals 24
Best Bets
- ⭐⭐⭐ Arizona Cardinals +3.5 (-110) — Market overreacted to Murray news; Brissett’s efficiency keeps this tight.
- ⭐⭐ Under 53 (-110) — Sharp money pushed the total down; expect longer drives, fewer explosives.
- ⭐ Dallas Team Total Under 27.5 — Arizona’s defense better than perception, especially in red-zone containment.
Game Flow Projection: Expect a slow start and a chess-match rhythm — Brissett working underneath, Prescott leaning on play-action. Arizona’s ability to sustain drives and force third-down stops will keep them within one score. Dallas wins, but it’s the kind of win that doesn’t cover the new number.
KEY ANGLE: The line move to -3.5 reflects perception, not performance — Cardinals remain undervalued with Brissett’s steady play and a defense that bends but rarely breaks.
