Chargers vs Jaguars Preview: Week 11 Matchup
had Fox breaks down the Chargers vs Jaguars Week 11 matchup, explaining how travel fatigue, emotional momentum, and passing mismatches are shaping the betting market for this AFC showdown in Jacksonville.
Opening Setup
Here’s what’s interesting about this Week 11 matchup – we’ve got a Chargers team riding a three-game winning streak heading into Jacksonville to face a Jaguars squad that just blew a 19-point lead to Houston. For new bettors, this is exactly the type of spot where you want to understand the difference between a team’s record and their actual momentum.
The Chargers are 7-3 but more importantly, they’ve figured out their offensive identity over the last five games, averaging 28.4 points compared to just 19.6 in their first five contests. Jacksonville sits at 5-4, but they’re coming off one of the most crushing losses you’ll see – giving up 26 fourth-quarter points to Davis Mills and the Texans.
What makes this game particularly interesting from a betting perspective is the travel angle. The Chargers will have logged more miles than any team in NFL history this season, and this marks their fourth trip to the Eastern Time Zone. Let’s break down why the market has this line where it does.
Game Details Box
Date: Sunday, November 16
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Location: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville
TV: CBS
Current Betting Lines
| Bet Type | Line | Juice |
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Los Angeles Chargers -3 | -110 |
| Total Points | Over/Under 44 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Chargers -170 / Jaguars +145 | – |
Quick Translation: The Chargers need to win by more than 3 points to cover the spread. The total means you’re betting whether both teams combine for more or less than 44 points. The moneyline shows LA as a solid favorite – you’d risk $170 to win $100 on the Chargers, while $100 wins $145 on Jacksonville straight up.
Line Movement Analysis
This line opened with the Chargers as small road favorites, which tells you the market respects their recent form despite the travel concerns. When you see a team favored on the road in the NFL, that’s usually a strong indicator – road favorites win at about a 53% clip against the spread historically. The total sitting at 44 is relatively low for modern NFL standards, which suggests the books expect either weather concerns or defensive-minded game flow. If you’re new to line movement, watch for “reverse line movement” – that’s when the line moves against the public betting percentage, usually indicating sharp money coming in on the other side.
Key Matchups
The critical battle here is Justin Herbert against Jacksonville’s secondary. Herbert has thrown for 2,610 yards this season, second in the NFL, and he’s facing a Jaguars defense that allows 252.9 passing yards per game – fifth-worst in the league.
Here’s the crazy part – Jacksonville’s pass defense has been torched by backup quarterbacks recently. Davis Mills threw for 292 yards against them, and Geno Smith hit them for 284. When backup quarterbacks are having success, that tells you plenty about what Herbert should be able to do. The Jaguars have managed just 6 sacks in their last six games on over 230 dropbacks, so Herbert should have time to work.
Why Smart Bettors Like Los Angeles
- Offensive Evolution — The Chargers have scored 89 points in their last three games while allowing just 40.
- Matchup Advantage — Jacksonville’s defense ranks 27th in yards allowed per play at 5.8, while LA’s offense has been efficient.
- Mental Edge — Hard to bounce back from blowing a 19-point lead like Jacksonville did against Houston.
Betting Recommendations
Primary Bet: Chargers -3 (-110) — This line feels too short for a team that’s been as consistent as Los Angeles lately. The Chargers have outscored opponents by 49 points during their three-game winning streak, and they’re catching Jacksonville at the perfect time – right after a crushing emotional loss. Herbert should be able to exploit this secondary.
Secondary Consideration: The Over 44 has some appeal given both teams can score when motivated, but I’m more confident in the side than the total with this number.
What to Watch For
- Early game flow – if LA jumps out early, Jacksonville’s confidence could crumble further
- Weather conditions in Jacksonville – any wind could affect the passing games
- How quickly the Chargers adjust to the Eastern time zone after their long travel schedule
- Jacksonville’s response to adversity – do they fold again or show fight after the Houston collapse
Bottom Line Summary
Let’s be realistic about what we’re seeing here. The Chargers are the better team with better momentum, better quarterback play, and they’re catching Jacksonville at an ideal spot. The travel concerns are valid, but LA has been too consistent lately to ignore. The market clearly respects the Chargers’ recent form by making them road favorites.
Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers 27, Jacksonville Jaguars 21.
KEY_ANGLE: Chargers’ red-hot offense exploits Jacksonville’s vulnerable pass defense after emotional letdown.
