Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots – Wildcard Picks & Predictions
New England enters Sunday as a 3.5-point home favorite; expert handicapper Rich Crew points to the Patriots’ league-leading points-per-play metrics as the deciding factor in our latest ATS pick.
Game Information Dashboard
Date: Saturday, January 11, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Odds: New England Patriots -3.5 | Total: 46
The Rundown
The market opened with New England laying 3.5 points, and that number has held steady through early action. The total sits at a modest 46 points, reflecting two teams that profile more as grinders than explosive offensive units. But the efficiency numbers tell a different story about this Patriots squad.
New England ranks 3rd in Points/Play at 0.469 compared to Los Angeles at 0.336 (25th). That’s a substantial gap in scoring efficiency. The Patriots also hold edges in Yards/Play (6.2 vs 5.2) and overall offensive output at 28.8 points per game versus the Chargers’ 21.6. On the defensive side, New England allows just 18.8 points per game (4th) while the Chargers give up 20.0 (9th).
The Yards Per Point differential from SBS Power Stats shows New England’s offense at 13.16 compared to LA’s 15.42 – meaning the Patriots need fewer yards to generate points. Over 11-12 drives, that efficiency gap translates to roughly a touchdown advantage for the home side.
Both teams enter relatively healthy. Justin Herbert practiced fully this week with his hand issue, while Drake Maye continues operating at peak efficiency. The Patriots got Morgan Moses back at right tackle, though they’re monitoring center Garrett Bradbury’s illness. Pass rusher Harold Landry returned to practice after missing two weeks – if he suits up, that’s another weapon for a New England defense that’s been suffocating all season.
Why New England Has the Edge
The Patriots hold significant advantages in the metrics that matter most for playoff football. Their 28.8 points per game ranks 2nd league-wide, nearly seven points higher than the Chargers’ 21.6 (20th). New England’s 0.469 Points/Play efficiency ranks 3rd versus Los Angeles at 0.336 (25th).
In critical situations, the Patriots excel with a 72.00% fourth-down conversion rate (2nd) compared to the Chargers’ 57.14% (17th). New England’s red zone touchdown scoring rate of 57.14% also edges LA’s pedestrian 47.37% (29th).
The turnover profile slightly favors New England as well. The Patriots generate +0.2 turnovers per game while the Chargers sit at +0.1. Neither team forces chaos, but New England’s been the cleaner operation with just 0.9 giveaways per contest versus LA’s 1.2.
Drake Maye’s 71.91% completion rate leads the NFL, and his 8.9 yards per pass attempt ranks 1st. Against a Chargers defense that allows 6.6 yards per pass (8th), this sets up as a favorable matchup for New England’s aerial attack. The kid’s been operating like a veteran all season.
The Numbers That Matter
- Points Per Game: New England 28.8 (2nd) vs Los Angeles 21.6 (20th)
- Yards Per Point (Power Stat): New England 13.16 off / 15.69 def vs Los Angeles 15.42 off / 14.26 def
- Points Per Play: New England 0.469 (3rd) vs Los Angeles 0.336 (25th)
- Yards Per Play: New England 6.2 (2nd) vs Los Angeles 5.2 (21st)
- 3rd Down Conversion %: New England 42.93% (6th) vs Los Angeles 45.82% (3rd)
- Red Zone TD Scoring %: New England 57.14% (17th) vs Los Angeles 47.37% (29th)
The advanced metrics reveal New England’s offensive superiority across multiple categories. The Patriots rank 1st in completion percentage at 71.91% and 1st in yards per pass attempt at 8.9. Their rushing attack contributes 128.9 yards per game (6th) at 4.4 yards per carry.
Los Angeles struggles in key efficiency areas, ranking 25th in Points/Play and 29th in red zone touchdown conversion. Their 9.54% quarterback sacked rate (28th) suggests protection issues that New England can exploit – especially if Harold Landry returns to form this week.
The Chargers do hold advantages in third-down conversion rate at 45.82% (3rd) and takeaways per game at 1.4 (7th). However, their inability to consistently reach the end zone limits their ceiling against a Patriots defense allowing just 18.8 points per game.
Over a typical 11-12 drive game script, New England’s efficiency advantages in Points/Play and red zone execution should manifest as a 7-10 point scoring edge.
Market Analysis & Line Movement
The opening spread of Patriots -3.5 has remained stable, indicating balanced two-way action. The total has held at 46, reflecting the market’s recognition of two solid defensive units and potential weather factors in January New England.
Key number positioning at 3.5 means New England must win by at least four points to cover, pushing through the crucial field goal margin. Historical data shows the Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last five games and 12-5 ATS overall this season.
The Chargers enter as road underdogs with a concerning 2-5 ATS mark in their last seven away games. Their recent under trend (4 of last 5 games) aligns with a total set in the mid-40s.
With New England riding a 5-game over streak and the Chargers trending under, the total appears positioned for sharp over action given the Patriots’ offensive efficiency metrics. This is playoff football at Gillette in January – the stage where New England has made its reputation.
Head-to-Head Efficiency Matchups
| Metric | Los Angeles | New England | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 21.6 | 28.8 | New England |
| Yards Per Point (Offense) | 15.42 | 13.16 | New England |
| Points Per Play | 0.336 | 0.469 | New England |
| Yards Per Play | 5.2 | 6.2 | New England |
| 3rd Down Conversion % | 45.82% | 42.93% | Los Angeles |
| Red Zone TD Scoring % | 47.37% | 57.14% | New England |
| Turnover Margin/Game | +0.1 | +0.2 | New England |
The efficiency grid strongly favors New England across the most predictive categories. The Patriots hold substantial edges in Points/Play (0.469 vs 0.336) and overall yards per point efficiency (13.16 vs 15.42).
New England’s red zone advantage is particularly notable – their 57.14% touchdown rate in scoring position significantly outpaces the Chargers’ 47.37% mark. This gap becomes magnified in playoff football where field goals often aren’t enough.
The Chargers’ lone significant edge comes in third-down conversion percentage, where their 45.82% rate ranks 3rd league-wide. However, this advantage is somewhat neutralized by New England’s superior early-down efficiency and better field position through their slight turnover edge.
Both teams maintain similar turnover profiles, though the Patriots generate slightly better field position through their +0.2 margin. The key differential lies in New England’s ability to maximize scoring opportunities once they reach the red zone.
Pace factors favor a game with 11-12 possessions per side based on TOP percentages and play calling tendencies. In that environment, New England’s efficiency advantages should produce a 6-10 point edge on the scoreboard.
Injury Report & Key Availability
The Patriots are dealing with some Thursday illness issues on the offensive line. Center Garrett Bradbury and backup tackle Vederian Lowe both missed practice, though these appear to be short-term bugs. Starting right tackle Morgan Moses cleared his illness and returned to full practice – that’s crucial for protecting Maye’s blindside.
The big storyline is Harold Landry ramping up after missing two weeks with a knee injury. The team’s sack leader practiced in limited capacity Thursday – his first work in weeks. If he’s cleared for Wild Card weekend, that’s another dimension to a pass rush that’s been dominant all season. Against Herbert’s 9.54% sack rate, Landry’s return could be a game-changer.
Los Angeles enters healthier. Justin Herbert practiced fully all week with his hand issue and looks 100%. The Chargers got Khalil Mack and Keenan Allen back to full participation after veteran rest days. Starting left tackle Jamaree Salyer also cleared his hamstring concern.
The Chargers will be without pass rusher Bud Dupree (hamstring) and safety Kendall Williamson (ankle), but those are depth pieces. Rookie running back Omarion Hampton remains out with an ankle injury, though LA’s backfield has managed fine without him.
Bottom line: Both teams enter relatively clean health-wise. The Patriots’ illness concerns should clear by Saturday, and having Herbert at full strength keeps the Chargers competitive. If Landry suits up, that tips the scales further toward New England.
The Bottom Line & Predictions
Prediction
New England Patriots 27, Los Angeles Chargers 20
Best Bets
- ⭐⭐⭐ Patriots -3.5 (-110) — Superior efficiency metrics across key categories. The playoff atmosphere at Gillette in January favors the home side, and New England’s scoring efficiency should be the difference.
- ⭐⭐ Over 46 (-110) — New England’s explosive offense should push total higher. The Patriots are averaging 28.8 per game and rolling on a 5-game over streak. Herbert’s fully healthy, so the Chargers can score enough to help this fly.
- ⭐ Patriots 1H -2 — Early home advantages and Chargers’ tendency for slow starts. New England’s been dominant opening games this season.
Game Flow Projection: New England’s offensive efficiency should generate 10-12 quality scoring opportunities, with their superior red zone execution converting at a higher rate than Los Angeles. The Patriots’ defense limits explosive plays while generating pressure on Herbert – if Landry plays, that pass rush becomes even more dangerous. Los Angeles keeps pace through third-down conversions but struggles to finish drives, settling for field goals in key spots. The Chargers hang around into the fourth quarter, but New England’s efficiency advantages prove decisive in a 7-point Patriots victory.
KEY_ANGLE: Patriots’ massive Points/Play edge (0.469 vs 0.336) translates to touchdown advantage over 11-12 drives. This is playoff football at Gillette Stadium – where efficiency becomes execution and New England turns home field into victory.
