Commanders vs Chargers Preview & Best Bets
With Jayden Daniels back under center, Washington looks like a different team. Can the Commanders cash as road underdogs, or will Justin Herbert and the Chargers cover the field goal spread at SoFi?
Opening Setup
This Week 5 matchup brings two teams that look the same on paper at 2-2 but feel very different right now. Washington is coming off a 27-34 loss to Atlanta where their secondary got exposed, while the Chargers are still stinging from a shocking upset loss to the Giants. For bettors, this is exactly the kind of spot where overreaction to recent results can shape the line — sometimes creating value if you can read past the noise.
The headline is Jayden Daniels’ return to full practice. After missing two games with a knee injury, Washington should get their rookie quarterback back, and his dual-threat ability changes how this offense looks immediately. On the other side, Los Angeles is dealing with offensive line issues that showed up in a big way last week. Both teams sit at 2-2, but the path they’ve taken to get here tells a very different story.
Game Details Box
Date: Sunday, October 5
Time: 4:25 PM ET
Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
TV: FOX
Current Betting Lines
| Bet Type | Line | Juice |
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Chargers -3 | -110 |
| Total Points | Over/Under 48 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Chargers -160 / Commanders +135 | – |
Quick Translation: The Chargers are 3-point favorites, so they need to win by at least 4 to cover. The total is set at 48, meaning oddsmakers expect a fair amount of scoring. On the moneyline, the Chargers are the favorite, while a $100 bet on Washington pays $135 if they win outright.
Line Movement Analysis
This line has been steady at Chargers -3. That stability tells us the market isn’t jumping to conclusions after last week’s results. In general, when a number doesn’t budge, it means the books are happy with where it’s sitting and both public and sharp bettors are fairly balanced. If we see late movement, it’ll likely be tied to news about Daniels’ health and availability.
Key Matchups
The big one is Washington’s pass defense against Justin Herbert. The Commanders are allowing 248.5 passing yards per game (27th in the NFL), and even with Los Angeles’ injuries up front, Herbert has still guided the league’s 5th-ranked passing offense at 249 yards per game. The problem is protection — Herbert was pressured on more than 50% of his dropbacks last week, and missing both tackles (Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater) makes this a concern again.
On the other side, Washington’s run game is no joke. They’re ranked 2nd in the NFL with 154.8 rushing yards per game, and the Chargers are middle of the pack against the run at 111.3 yards per game allowed (16th). If Daniels is healthy, his legs plus that ground game give Washington the balance to keep L.A. honest.
Why Washington Has Appeal
- Daniels’ return is a difference-maker — He gives Washington an explosive element they didn’t have with Mariota.
- Injuries up front for L.A. — Missing both starting tackles is a real issue against Washington’s defensive line.
- Market feels flat — With both teams 2-2, the matchup looks closer than a clean field goal spread suggests.
Betting Recommendations
Primary Bet: Washington Commanders +3 (-110) — Getting Daniels back plus facing a banged-up Chargers line makes this number too generous. Three points is valuable here in what feels like a toss-up matchup.
Secondary Consideration: Over 48 (-110) — If Daniels is fully healthy, Washington’s offense can put points on the board. Combine that with Herbert testing a shaky Commanders secondary, and this could get into shootout territory.
What to Watch For
- How Daniels looks early — mobility will tell you how close to 100% he really is
- The Chargers’ pass protection — Herbert under constant fire changes everything
- Live betting totals — early points could push the number too high, creating value on the under
- No weather factor — SoFi’s dome means conditions are controlled
Bottom Line Summary
This line feels like it’s leaning too heavily on the Chargers’ home field edge and ignoring how different Washington looks with Daniels under center. L.A. has firepower, but with protection issues and Washington’s ability to run the ball, this game projects much closer to even than a 3-point spread suggests. The Commanders have the balance to hang around, and the underdog side looks live.
Final Score Prediction: Commanders 24, Chargers 21.
