Washington Commanders vs New York Giants – Week 15 NFL Picks & Predictions
Washington and New York enter Week 15 on extended losing streaks, but one team holds a clear efficiency edge that should matter when these struggling NFC East rivals meet.
Game Information Dashboard
Date: Sunday, December 14, 2025
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Odds: Giants -2.5 | Total: 47.5
The Rundown
Sometimes you get two teams facing off in great form. And sometimes… you get this. Washington has dropped eight straight, the Giants seven, and now they meet in a true “somebody has to win” showdown. When the market hangs a tight -2.5 at home for a team in a tailspin, you know the books aren’t impressed with either roster.
The total sitting around 47.5 makes sense. Both offenses are inconsistent, both defenses leak like old faucets, and the only thing predictable is the unpredictability. Washington averages just over 20 PPG, the Giants barely crack 21, and neither team strings together efficient drives. But there’s one matchup sticking out like a flashing neon sign: Washington’s run game versus New York’s bottom-ranked run defense.
Washington averages 4.9 yards per carry behind a physical ground game that shows up weekly, while the Giants allow an ugly 5.8 yards per rush—dead last in the league. If the Commanders can dictate pace early with that mismatch, they steal a possession or two and flip the scoring script.
Why Washington Has the Edge
Even in the middle of a brutal losing streak, Washington’s underlying process metrics are better than they look on the scoreboard. The Commanders run the ball with real intent, piling up 136.5 rushing yards per game, good for fourth-best in the league. And the Giants’ defense? They’ve been a get-right spot for every running back on the schedule, surrendering 154.2 rushing yards per game.
The quarterback matchup also leans Washington’s way in terms of experience. Marcus Mariota makes his seventh start of the season for the Commanders after Jayden Daniels was ruled out with an elbow injury. While neither offense has been explosive, Washington’s rushing attack gives them a more reliable path to moving the chains.
Where Washington struggles is ball security. The Commanders own a -0.8 turnover margin per game, ranking 30th in the league—one of the worst marks in football. They’re giving away 1.4 turnovers per game while generating just 0.5 takeaways. The Giants aren’t much better at -0.5 per game, but they do have a slight edge in this critical category. In a game between two sloppy teams, limiting mistakes becomes paramount.
The Numbers That Matter
- Points Per Game: Washington 20.2 vs Giants 21.5
- Yards Per Point (Offense): Washington 16.2 vs Giants 15.8
- Yards Per Rush: Washington 4.9 vs Giants 4.1
- Yards Per Pass: Washington 6.9 vs Giants 7.2
- Rush Yards Per Game: Washington 136.5 vs Giants 123.5
- Pass Yards Per Game: Washington 191.0 vs Giants 216.6
- Turnover Margin Per Game: Washington -0.8 vs Giants -0.5
The clearest mismatch in this entire game is Washington’s run attack against New York’s run-stop unit. The Commanders’ 136.5 rushing yards per game isn’t a fluke—they build their identity around it. And the Giants’ 154.2 rushing yards allowed per game ranks 31st for a reason.
Washington also fields a slightly better scoring defense, giving up 27.2 PPG to New York’s 28.2. Not exactly the Steel Curtain on either side, but in games where every point matters, that slim difference counts.
Market Analysis & Line Movement
The line opened at Giants -1.5 and moved to -2.5, which tells you early money came in on New York despite their struggles. The ATS records make things interesting: Washington is 5-10 ATS on the season and particularly brutal on the road at 1-6 ATS. New York sits at 6-9 ATS overall but has been more reliable at home with a 4-2 ATS mark.
The total at 47.5 suggests the market expects mid-tier scoring but not much explosiveness. Both teams rank in the bottom third of the league in points per game, and neither offense has shown the ability to consistently finish drives. The over has hit in 12 of the Giants’ 15 games this season, the highest rate in the NFL.
Bottom line: the market isn’t confident in either side, and games like that often tilt toward underlying efficiency rather than public perception.
Head-to-Head Efficiency Matchups
| Metric | Washington | Giants | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 20.2 | 21.5 | Giants |
| Yards Per Point (Offense) | 16.2 | 15.8 | Giants |
| Rush Yards Per Game | 136.5 | 123.5 | Washington |
| Pass Yards Per Game | 191.0 | 216.6 | Giants |
| Points Allowed Per Game | 27.2 | 28.2 | Washington |
| Yards Per Rush Allowed | 4.7 | 5.8 | Washington |
| Turnover Margin Per Game | -0.8 | -0.5 | Giants |
If you’re looking for a razor-thin scoreboard game decided by hidden edges, this is it. Washington’s run defense and rushing offense create the clearest path to consistency. The Giants’ passing yardage edge is real, but rookie Jaxson Dart has been turnover-prone at times.
Ball security is actually a swing metric favoring the Giants. While both teams are careless with the football, New York’s -0.5 margin beats Washington’s -0.5 margin. In games between struggling teams, the one that protects the ball usually wins.
The Bottom Line & Predictions
Prediction
Giants 20, Washington 17
Best Bets
- ⭐⭐⭐ Under 47.5 — Both offenses play slow and struggle to finish drives consistently.
- ⭐⭐ Giants -2.5 — Home field and slightly better ball security give them the edge in a sloppy game.
- ⭐ Washington Team Total Under 20.5 — Mariota’s limitations and turnover issues cap the upside.
Game Flow Projection: Expect a grind. Washington leans into the run game early, forcing long, methodical drives. The Giants fight back with their own ground attack and Dart’s mobility. The difference comes down to one or two critical mistakes—a fumble, an interception, a missed field goal. With both teams ranking in the bottom five for turnover margin, whoever protects the ball better wins this ugly NFC East battle. The Giants’ home field advantage and slightly superior ball security tilt the fourth quarter in their favor in what should be a low-scoring affair.
